NHL Betting Preview (May 12): Canucks vs. Oilers Game 3 Odds
2 months ago
Edmonton’s response in Game 2 was good enough to even the series, and now the Oilers are a big favourite (-190) in Game 3 against the Vancouver Canucks. This article examines the odds and trends to find out what makes this matchup worth betting on.
Canucks vs. Oilers Game 3 Odds
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline Odds: +165
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -200
- Puck Line Odds: Canucks +1.5 (-150), Oilers -1.5 (+125)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -105, under -115)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Canucks vs. Oilers Series Odds Update
The Oilers are now a -270 series favourite following their 4-3 overtime win in Game 2. That implies that Edmonton will move on to the Western Conference final approximately 73 percent of the time. Vancouver, meanwhile, is listed as a +220 underdog to win the series. Edmonton also has the best Stanley Cup odds (+300) despite the fact that the Dallas Stars, New York Rangers, and Florida Panthers are all closer to reaching the next round than the Oilers are.
Handicapping the Canucks (54-35 SU, 47-42 ATS, 44-41 O/U)
Vancouver has shown they’re a tough opponent, even though many didn’t give them much of a chance in this series. But after completely controlling Game 1, they were on the receiving end in Game 2. According to Evolving Hockey, in Game 1, the Canucks had about 59 percent of the shot attempts and 60 percent of the expected goals during even strength play. However, there was a big shift in Game 2.
The Canucks held the Oilers to just 45 shot attempts in the series opener, but Edmonton bounced back with 67 shot attempts during regulation in Game 2. And, after generating 54 shot attempts of their own in Game 1, the Canucks attempted just 39 shots in Game 2, including overtime. Top stars like Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Brock Boeser stepped up offensively, but the Canucks didn’t have an answer for Edmonton’s top superstar trio.
According to Natural Stat Trick, when Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman were on the ice together, shot attempts favoured Edmonton 32-7. The trio seemed unstoppable, with an 18-1 advantage in scoring chances and an 82 percent chance of expected goals. The Oilers didn’t look as strong when those players weren’t on the ice, but considering all three played over 26 minutes, there’s still a relentless element to Edmonton’s attack.
Handicapping the Oilers (54-34 SU, 40-48 ATS, 40-45 OU)
Edmonton put on a solid performance in Game 2, especially in the latter part of the game. According to the hockey stats website Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers finished with a 16-6 edge in high-danger shot attempts, including an 8-1 advantage in the third period. They generated 3.75 expected goals while holding the Canucks to just 1.83 in all situations. Additionally, according to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, it was 3.71 – 2.08 in favour of the Oilers. Based on this method, the betting market is expecting a scoreline of 3.727 – 2.773 in favour of Edmonton heading into Game 3.
Vancouver was a solid road team during the regular season, going 23-18 straight up, but the Oilers had the best home goal differential in the league this season and they went 28-13 straight up at Rogers Place during the regular season. However, the Canucks have only scored four goals three times in eight games, and That’s not going to cut it against the Oilers. Edmonton has also scored four-plus goals in six out of seven playoff games so far in the postseason.
With that said, between Edmonton’s reliance on their top five players, and Vancouver’s penchant for lighting up Stuart Skinner, it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll be able to blow the Canucks out. Edmonton should win Game 3, and Game 4, for that matter, but based on what we’ve seen in this series, the margin of victory will probably be one goal or two.
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Team Betting Trends
- Vancouver is 6-4 straight up in its last 10 games against the Oilers, including 5-1 dating back to the start of the 2023-24 regular season. The Canucks have covered the puck line in 80 percent of those games. Meanwhile, the two teams are 5-3-2 to the over in the last 10 meetings.
- Edmonton is 5-4 straight up in its last nine playoff games at Rogers Place dating back to the start of the 2023 playoffs. The Oilers have covered the puck line in four out of their last nine home playoff games.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- McDavid has registered at least one point in five straight home playoff games. The Oilers’ captain also has a point in 10 straight playoff games. He played just over 28 minutes in Game 2 and registered one goal and three assists. McDavid has five goals in his last 10 playoff games and he is priced at +115 to score a goal in Game 3.
- With one goal and three assists in Game 2, Leon Draisaitl has now recorded two or more points in six out of his last seven playoff games. Draisaitl is priced at +115 to score a goal on Sunday.
- Zach Hyman registered his first assist since Game 1 of the first round, but his nine goals are tied for the playoff lead. Hyman has scored in five out of seven playoff games so far and he is also listed at +115 to score a goal in Game 3.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Six out of seven Oilers’ playoff games have featured seven or more goals, and there have been 16 goals scored so far in this series. Given the makeup of Edmoton’s roster, it’s likely that future games in the series follow a similar script. I mean, Stuart Skinner’s play wasn’t as much of an issue in round one. In fact, his performance in the middle of the series was a big reason the Oilers managed to dispatch the Los Angeles Kings in five games.
However, early indications are that Edmonton won’t be able to rely on their goaltender to lock it down. The Canucks have too many dangerous shooters, and the Oilers’ only have one solid defensive pairing. Additionally, Vancouver’s goaltender, Artur Silovs, might face more shots in Sunday’s game than he ever has before, and he’s allowed four-plus goals in back-to-back games. Bet on Game 3 going over the total (6.5 goals) at -105 odds.
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