NHL Betting Preview (May 14): Canucks vs. Oilers Game 4 Odds
2 months ago
Edmonton finds itself facing a series deficit for the first time in the 2024 NHL playoffs. The Oilers lost Game 3 versus the Canucks and now Vancouver has a chance to push them to the brink of elimination with a win in Game 4 on Tuesday.
Canucks vs. Oilers Game 4 Odds
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline Odds: +170
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -205
- Puck Line Odds: Canucks +1.5 (-150), Oilers -1.5 (+125)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -105, under -115)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Canucks vs. Oilers Series Odds Update
Vancouver is two wins away from pulling off a massive upset. Based on Bet365’s odds, Edmonton’s series price (-115) implies that the Oilers have a 53.5 percent chance of winning after coming into the series as a -270 favourite (73 percent implied probability). Looking at the bigger picture, Edmonton (+450) has the third-best Stanley Cup odds, while Vancouver’s odds of winning it all have improved from 16/1 to 12/1.
Handicapping the Canucks (55-35 SU, 48-42 ATS, 45-41 O/U)
The Canucks came into round two as a +220 series underdog, but they flipped the script after surviving Edmonton’s comeback bid in Game 3. Still, the betting market sees Edmonton as a much better team than Vancouver, and therefore, the Oilers are a big favourite (-210) to win Game 4. However, most hockey fans outside of Edmonton would probably take issue with that assessment at this point. Edmonton could be up 3-0 in the series, but they could just as easily be down 0-3 because the games have been tightly contested. This matchup has been much more closely matched than originally thought.
According to hockey stats website Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton has controlled 5-on-5 play with a 60.6 percent share of the shot attempts. However, high danger shot attempts are just 26-22 in favour of the Oilers so far in the series and their expected goal share is sitting at 52.4 percent. This suggests that the Oilers are working a lot harder than the Canucks to generate quality looks, and that lines up with the eye test. Vancouver has capitalized on several of Edmonton’s mistakes in the series, while the Oilers have had to muck and grind a lot more than they’re accustomed to.
Edmonton’s power play is still humming along, going 4-8 in the series so far, but the Canucks’ power play has found some life. Vancouver went 2-13 in the first round, and 0-3 in Game 1 against the Oilers, but they have gone 4-6 on the man advantage over the last two games. The Canucks are playing a dangerous game, though. Vancouver sat back too much in Game 3, leaving goaltender Artur Silovs to make far too many big saves late in the third period. Letting Edmonton dictate the pace of play for large portions of the game, regardless of the score, isn’t a wise strategy for head coach Rick Tocchet to employ.
Handicapping the Oilers (54-35 SU, 40-49 ATS, 41-45 OU)
Edmonton has not lost back-to-back home playoff games since Games 3 and 4 of the 2022 Western Conference Final. However, tensions will be high at Rogers Place on Tuesday, and rightfully so. The Oilers are facing a 3-1 series deficit in a season described as ‘Stanley Cup or bust’. Also, early indications from the betting market are that sharp bettors are on the underdog in Game 4, and who can blame them? Edmonton has not looked the part of a big favourite yet in the series.
The Oilers have been the better team from a shot volume perspective, but Vancouver’s attack has been much more efficient and potent in generating scoring chances and goals. Sure, Edmonton was unlucky not to score the tying goal in Game 3, but the Oilers are going to have to play a much more dominant style if they are to cover up their defensive deficiencies. Some of those holes can be covered up by Stuart Skinner, assuming he can raise his game, but that’s not something Edmonton can rely on. In fact, head coach Kris Knoblauch has not revealed his starting goaltender ahead of Game 4.
Skinner now has an .881 save percentage in 19 career playoff games, and an .877 save percentage through eight games this postseason. The 25-year-old Edmonton native has been outplayed by Silovs, a sixth-round draft pick who has played a fraction of the games that Skinner has. As a result, Edmonton will apparently turn to backup goaltender Calvin Pickard. Pickard had a solid season, posting a .909 save percentage in 23 games, but he only won one out of the seven games he started against playoff teams in the regular season. This will be Pickard’s first career start in the NHL playoffs.
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Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton has gone 3-7 straight up versus the Canucks dating back to the start of the 2022-23 regular season. Vancouver has covered the puck line in eight out of those 10 matchups, too.
- The OIlers are 9-1-1 to the over in their last 10 games as the favourite and every game in this series has featured at least seven goals. Edmonton is 6-2-2 to the over in its last 10 meetings against the Canucks.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Leon Draisaitl’s performance in the playoffs has been nothing short of elite. The 28-year-old has 18 points in eight games and has registered two or more points in seven games this postseason.
- Connor McDavid went pointless for the first time in the 2024 playoffs and just the fifth time since 2022. The Oilers captain has registered at least a point in 31 of 36 playoff games since 2021-22.
- J.T. Miller (2-9-11) shares the points lead with Brock Boeser (7-4-11), who have both registered five points in three games versus Edmonton. Boeser is tied for the most goals with Elias Lindholm, who also scored two goals in Game 3.
- Zach Hyman is tied for the playoff scoring lead with nine goals, but for the first time this postseason, Hyman has gone back-to-back games without a goal.
- Elias Pettersson lit the lamp in Game 2, but he’s been quiet otherwise. The 25-year-old has one goal and three assists in nine playoff games.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Betting on Game 3 to go over 6.5 goals proved to be a smart strategy, just like it was in Games 1 and 2. There’s no reason to change anything heading into Game 4. According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers generated approximately six expected goals in Game 3, and if they repeat that performance, it’s unlikely Silovs will be able to stop them. Additionally, the fact that the Oilers are turning to Pickard, seemingly out of desperation, doesn’t change the fact that they still have a lot of defensive deficiencies. Bet on over 6.5 goals at -105 odds in Game 4.
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