NHL Betting Preview (May 16): Oilers vs. Canucks Game 5 Odds
2 months ago
This series is now a best-of-five following Edmonton’s 3-2 win in Game 4. The Oilers are the favourite (-150) to defeat the Canucks in Game 5. This article breaks down the odds and trends to determine if this matchup is worth betting on.
Oilers vs. Canucks Game 5 Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -150
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline Odds: +125
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+165), Oilers +1.5 (-200)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Canucks vs. Oilers Series Odds Update
Vancouver missed its chance to take a 3-1 series lead and, as a result, the Oilers are once again a big series favourite. Edmonton is listed at -200 to win the series, which is an implied win percentage of about 66.7 percent. According to the odds at Bet365, the most likely outcome is a 4-2 series win for the Oilers, which is listed at +140 odds.
Handicapping the Oilers (55-36 SU, 40-51 ATS, 42-46 OU)
Edmonton played its most complete game of the series so far, controlling play from start to finish. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers accounted for more than 65 percent of the expected goals in Game 4. The Oilers held the Canucks to just six high-danger shot attempts, while generating 12 of their own. More than half of the Oilers’ best chances came during 5-on-5 play, whereas the Canucks managed only three 5-on-5 shot attempts from the high-danger zone.
The Oilers allowed the fewest high danger shots than any of the teams still standing in the NHL playoffs, but goaltending was the biggest difference maker in Game 4. Calvin Pickard was solid in his first ever playoff start, and while head coach Kris Knoblauch hasn’t yet confirmed his Game 5 starter, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Edmonton turns back to Stuart Skinner. Pickard wasn’t rattled by the big stage, and didn’t look to be as susceptible to making mistakes as Skinner did in the first three games.
This season, the Oilers are 22-1 when scoring five goals or more. Meanwhile, the Canucks’ record is 5-27 when they allow four goals or more (regular season and playoffs). Edmonton is one offensive outburst away from pushing Vancouver to the brink of elimination.
Handicapping the Canucks (56-36 SU, 50-42 ATS, 46-42 O/U)
Head coach Rick Tocchet would not go as far as to say whether star goalie Thatcher Demko would be returning to the crease before the end of the second round. According to the coach, Demko’s status has improved immensely over the last few days, but odds are that he won’t be able to help the Canucks defeat the Oilers. Regardless, Vancouver must find a way to create more offensively if they want to win two out of the next three games.The Canucks generated just 1.63 expected goals in Game 4, which aligns with the eye test.
The Canucks were lucky to score two goals, and equally fortunate that Edmonton’s lead wasn’t bigger to begin with. Artur Silovs has given Vancouver average or above-average goaltending, but the Canucks aren’t providing him with enough offensive support. According to Evolving Hockey, Vancouver generated 2.41 expected goals in Game 1, 1.78 in Game 2, 1.37 in Game 3, and just 1.02 in Game 4, in all situations.
The Canucks finished as the 11th-best team in expected goals for (per 60 minutes) during the regular season, and that’s the type of output it’s going to take to beat the Oilers in Game 5. However, if the current trend is any indication of how Vancouver will play going forward, the Canucks are in trouble.
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Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton is 3-7 straight up in its last 10 meetings against Vancouver, but the Oilers are 6-4 straight up in their last 10 trips to Rogers Arena. However, Edmonton has not done a good job covering the puck line. The Oilers and Canucks have met 15 times since the start of the 2021-22 regular season and Edmonton has only covered the puck line on two occasions.
- Eight out of the last 15 meetings between these two teams have featured at least seven goals, but Pickard certainly gave Edmonton a different look in Game 4. Edmonton and Vancouver are 5-3-2 to the over in the last 10 meetings.
- According to Hockey Reference, teams with a 3-2 series lead have gone on to win the series 79.1 percent of the time. However, Edmonton is currently a -200 (66.7 percent) series favourite, so a 3-2 lead would significantly increase the Oilers’ chances of moving on.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Head coach Rick Tocchet called out some of his stars for being passengers following the Canucks’ loss in Game 4 and everyone looked at Elias Pettersson. In 10 playoff games, the 25-year-old has registered just 15 shots, one goal, and three assists in 10 games.
- Leon Draisaitl doesn’t get enough credit. Draisaitl leads the Oilers with eight goals and 12 assists in nine playoff games. He’s registered at least two points in eight out nine games, and has goals in each of his last three outings.
- Evan Bouchard has played 27:51 per game in the series, and he’s matched Connor McDavid’s production, scoring six points, including three goals, in the series. Mattias Ekholm also has three goals and two assists in the series, so the Oilers’ top duo is definitely carrying their fair share of the load.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
If you were to shop for the best odds on Draisaitl to score a goal, the best you’ll find is +130. That is, unless you check out Bet365, where you can currently bet on No. 29 to light the lamp at +135 odds. That might not seem like much, but in a game that’s as hard to beat as sports betting, every cent counts. Take advantage of this competitive offering and bet on Draisaitl to score an anytime goal at +135 odds.
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