NHL Betting Preview (May 18): Canucks vs. Oilers Game 6 Odds
2 months ago
Dallas booked its ticket to the Western Conference final with a double overtime win over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 6 of their second round series on Friday. Now, the Stars await the winner of this Pacific Division matchup, which could end on Saturday. This article breaks down the odds and trends to determine if Game 6 between the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks is worth betting on.
Canucks vs. Oilers Game 6 Odds
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline Odds: +165
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -200
- Puck Line Odds: Canucks +1.5 (-155), Oilers -1.5 (+130)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Canucks vs. Oilers Series Odds Update
Edmonton is a favourite to win Game 6, but the Oilers’ odds of winning the series currently sit at +155. Therefore, according to the betting market, the Oilers have about a 39 percent chance of moving on to play the Dallas Stars in the next round. Dallas eliminated the Colorado Avalanche in six games with a 2-1 win in double overtime on Friday. Edmonton (+600) currently has the second-worst odds of winning the Stanley Cup, while Dallas (+210) is the current favourite.
Handicapping the Canucks (57-36 SU, 51-42 ATS, 46-43 O/U)
Vancouver played its best game of the series and the playoffs in Game 5, outshooting Edmonton 35-23 and controlling nearly 65 percent of the expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. The Canucks’ penalty kill was impressive, stopping Edmonton’s power play five times. While it’s unlikely they’ll stop five power plays again, they might not need to if they stay disciplined in Game 6. The Oilers only had 10 power play opportunities in the first four games.
Defensively, the Canucks have been solid throughout the playoffs, but Game 5 was their most threatening offensive performance. Before Game 5, their offensive play had been declining, so it’s uncertain if they’ll carry it over to Game 6. That’s what makes this a tough game to handicap. Edmonton knows it can get to Artur Silovs if enough shots and chances are generated. With their backs against the wall, the Oilers will likely dictate the play. Therefore, the Canucks will have to find a balance between defending, and creating scoring opportunities.
From a betting perspective, the market has come around the Canucks a bit. As the road team, Vancouver closed as a +170 underdog in Game 3 and a +175 underdog in Game 4, but the Canucks are priced at +165 heading into Game 6. According to DFO’s Frank Seravalli, Edmonton is expected to start Stuart Skinner in Game 6, so it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts to that news.
Handicapping the Oilers (55-37 SU, 40-52 ATS, 42-47 OU)
Edmonton faces elimination for the first time in the NHL playoffs after losing Game 5, 3-2. However, the score was somewhat misleading. The Canucks dominated the last 40 minutes, outshooting the Oilers 24-12, particularly in the second period. After a strong first 20 minutes from Edmonton, the Oilers were overwhelmed by the Canucks in the second period, where Vancouver outshot them 17-4 and had an 8-0 edge in high-danger shot attempts, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Oilers’ goaltender Calvin Pickard played well, stopping 32 of the 35 shots he faced in the game, but Edmonton didn’t have its scoring touch. The Oilers went without a power play goal for the first time this postseason despite having five opportunities to do so. In fact, Edmonton didn’t generate a single high danger shot attempt on the man advantage in Game 5, so the Canucks deserve full marks for shutting down the Oilers top players.
Connor McDavid put the team on his back in Game 2, scoring a goal and assisting on three others, but he’s been quiet otherwise. He’s registered just one point in his last three games, and his on-ice expected goals percentage was 16.45 percent during 5-on-5 play in Game 5. Based on that statistic alone, it was No. 97’s worst performance in almost 400 games. Given how tight this series has been, this series might already be over if McDavid had produced more in the last three games.
Edmonton was in this position following a Game 5 loss at Vegas in round two a year ago. They returned home and lost Game 6 by a 5-2 score. Things should be different this time, but betting on them to win, in any capacity, doesn’t appear to be a good strategy. I mean, home-ice advantage and the desperation factor, are clearly priced into the odds.
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Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton is 3-7 straight up in its last 10 meetings against Vancouver, but the Oilers are 6-4 straight up in their last 10 trips to Rogers Arena. However, Edmonton has not done a good job covering the puck line. The Oilers and Canucks have met 15 times since the start of the 2021-22 regular season and Edmonton has only covered the puck line on two occasions.
- Eight out of the last 15 meetings between these two teams have featured at least seven goals, but Pickard certainly gave Edmonton a different look in Game 4. Edmonton and Vancouver are 5-3-2 to the over in the last 10 meetings.
- According to Hockey Reference, teams with a 3-2 series lead have gone on to win the series 79.1 percent of the time. However, Edmonton is currently a -200 (66.7 percent) series favourite, so a 3-2 lead would significantly increase the Oilers’ chances of moving on.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Connor McDavid has recorded 12 multi-point games in his last 22 playoff appearances dating back to 2023 but he’s only registered multiple points once in this series so far. McDavid is priced at -175 to score two or more points in Game 6. McDavid has played in seven elimination games since the 2020 playoffs and he has averaged two points per game in this situation.
- Leon Draisaitl has registered three goals and eight assists in the series. He leads all Oilers with 11 points, which is five more than McDavid and Evan Bouchard. Draisaitl has recorded a point in every playoff game so far this season, and he’s put up at least two points in eight out of 10 games this postseason. Draisaitl is priced at -110 to register at least two points.
- Zach Hyman has not scored since Game 1 of this series. If he does not score in Game 6, it will be the first time all season that he’s gone five games without a goal. There was only one stretch in the regular season where Hyman did not score a goal for four consecutive games. Hyman is priced at -110 to score on Saturday.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
The first period total has gone over 1.5 goals in four out of five games in this series, but so far in the playoffs, the first period has gone under in every Game 6 or Game 7. So, with an 8-0 trend to the under, bettors should expect that trend to continue here as Edmonton and Vancouver will likely tighten things up in period one of Game 6. Bet under 1.5 first period goals at +105 odds.
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