NHL Betting Preview (May 27): Stars vs. Oilers Game 3 Odds
1 month ago
After splitting the first two games in Dallas, the Western Conference Final now shifts to Edmonton, as the Oilers will look to regain their series lead over the Stars. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this series interesting, from a betting perspective.
Stars vs. Oilers Game 3 Odds
- Dallas Stars Moneyline Odds: +110
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -130
- Puck Line Odds: Stars +1.5 (-240), Oilers -1.5 (+195)
- Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -115, under -105)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Oilers vs. Stars Series Odds
Edmonton managed to steal home-ice advantage from the Stars by splitting Games 1 and 2 of the Western Conference Final, now the series is listed as a pick ‘em, with each side priced at -110 odds. In other words, the betting market sees this matchup as a coinflip. Edmonton and Dallas are both listed at +240 to win the Stanley Cup, as are the New York Rangers.
Handicapping the Stars (61-36 SU, 42-55 ATS, 47-49 O/U)
Edmonton carried the play in Game 2, but Jake Oettinger was rock solid. According to Evolving Hockey, the 25-year-old saved the Stars more than two goals above expected in the game, posting a .966 save percentage. The Oilers scored on their second shot attempt of the game, but Oettinger was perfect the rest of the way, stopping the next 28 shots he faced. Oettinger’s performance propelled him back to the top of the Conn Smythe Trophy futures board, at 5/1 odds.
Dallas has been in this position before, though. The Stars were outplayed by the Colorado Avalanche in Games 1 and 2 of that series, but they came back to dominate the Avalanche in the next two games and took a 3-1 series lead. A return from star forward Roope Hintz would go a long way in helping the Stars continue that trend, too. Hintz is travelling with the team to Edmonton, and head coach Pete DeBoer expects him to play in one of the next two games. In fact, DeBoer stated that if Game 2 had been Game 7, Hintz probably would have suited up.
According to Evolving Hockey, Dallas leads all teams with a 52.75 percent expected goal share at even strength this postseason, however, the Stars have scored 1.8 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, compared to 2.8 goals for Edmonton. Of course, Hintz is a three-time 30-goal scorer, and his return would help bolster the Stars’ attack.
Handicapping the Oilers (58-38 SU, 42-54 ATS, 42-50 O/U)
The Oilers looked solid in periods one and two, owning roughly 61 percent of the shot attempts and 59 percent of the expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. However, Edmonton seemingly ran out of gas in the third period. The Oilers registered just five shots on goal in the final frame, and only two of those shots were from the high danger area.
It’s not a knock on the team, though. The Oilers played nine intense playoff games in 18 days, compared to just eight games in 20 days for Dallas. Of course, the Oilers will have to overcome their tired legs, because this is the hand they’ve been dealt. Dallas has the luxury of being able to divide playing time more evenly throughout its lineup, and Edmonton’s going to have to win in spite of that.
The biggest positive is that, overall, Edmonton has been the better team during even strength play. According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers have owned approximately 55 percent of the expected goals and 58 percent of the shot attempts through the first two games. The second-biggest positive is that Stuart Skinner has given his team a chance to win. Skinner was phenomenal for Edmonton in Game 1, but he was solid in Game 2, despite the loss.
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Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton has won 63.5 percent of the games in which they have been listed as the favourite. Meanwhile, the Stars have pulled off upsets in 50 percent of the games that they have been listed as the underdog.
- The Oilers are 4-2 as the home team this postseason, while the Stars have gone 5-1 as the road team in the playoffs. Dallas and Edmonton have split the last 10 meetings straight up.
- Dallas and Edmonton have combined for seven or more goals in six out of the last 10 meetings, but the two teams have not combined for more than five goals in three consecutive games.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Leon Draisaitl went pointless for the first time this postseason in Game 2, registering just two shots on goal in 23:28 of ice time. Draisaitl had recorded a point in 13 consecutive games prior to that.
- Oilers’ captain Connor McDavid also went pointless. He’s got six points in his last seven games, but he’s gone without a point in four of those contests.
- Wyatt Johnston had not registered a point in five of his last six games, but he picked up two helpers in Game 2 in just under 20 minutes of ice time. Meanwhile, his linemate, Jamie Benn, has scored two goals and four points in his last three games. Benn has also registered at least four shots on goal in three of his last four games.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Games 1 and 2 were tightly contested, and bettors should expect more of the same in Game 3. Edmonton is one of the best home teams in the NHL, but the Stars were arguably the best road team, going 31-16 straight up away from home dating back to the beginning of the 2023-24 regular season. Bet on Game 3 to finish in overtime at 3/1 odds.
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