NHL Betting Preview (May 29): Stars vs. Oilers Game 4 Odds
1 month ago
Edmonton will look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination on Wednesday as the Dallas Stars look to extend their series lead. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this matchup interesting from a betting perspective.
Stars vs. Oilers Game 4 Odds
- Dallas Stars Moneyline Odds: +115
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -135
- Puck Line Odds: Stars +1.5 (-225), Oilers -1.5 (+185)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Stars vs. Oilers Series Odds
According to the odds, Dallas (-260) has more than a 70 percent chance of advancing to the Stanley Cup Final following its win in Game 3 of the Western Conference Final. Edmonton’s Stanley Cup odds dropped to 4/1, while the Stars (+150) have risen to the top of the board. However, the odds also suggest that seven games is the most likely series length at +140.
Handicapping the Oilers (58-39 SU, 42-55 ATS, 43-50 O/U)
Edmonton dominated Dallas in the opening frame, much like it did in Game 2, but the Oilers once again failed to carry that momentum into the second period. As a result, the Oilers surrendered the lead for the fourth time in their last five losses, raising more concerns about whether this team is capable of playing a full 60 minutes. Holding a lead has been a challenge for Edmonton, at least since the start of the second round.
The Oilers have been outscored 16-11 when leading over their last 10 games, as shot attempts and scoring chances have heavily favoured their opponents. While it would be easy to blame goaltending, the Oilers have been badly outplayed at 5-on-5 when leading over the last two games. According to Natural Stat Trick, Dallas has owned 72 percent of the 5-on-5 expected goals when playing from behind in Game 2 and Game 3.
Stuart Skinner’s .810 save percentage in Game 3 was far below what Edmonton needed to stay in the driver’s seat, but defensive breakdowns have led to an unnecessary amount of chaos around the Oilers’ net. Moreover, Edmonton hasn’t been able to create the same level of stress for the Stars. Far too many of Edmonton’s possessions have been broken up by the Stars without resulting in a scoring chance. For example, only 16 of Edmonton’s 52 shot attempts in Game 3 turned into shots on goal at 5-on-5.
Edmonton’s biggest issue might be that Darnell Nurse plays almost 20 minutes per game. Edmonton has outscored teams 27-16 during 5-on-5 play when Darnell Nurse isn’t on the ice, but the Oilers have been outscored 18-8 when he is on the ice.
Handicapping the Oilers (58-38 SU, 42-54 ATS, 42-50 O/U)
Playoff hockey is full of momentum swings, and both teams have taken turns annihilating one another during 5-on-5 play. Monday’s game was no different, as Dallas looked like a completely different team when the puck dropped in the second period. The Stars set a new team record for the three fastest playoff goals, scoring three goals in 3:33. Dallas peppered Oilers’ goaltender Stuart Skinner in the middle frame, generating 16 shots compared to just three in the first period.
Leading the way was forward Jason Robertson, who scored two of those goals, and then potted the game-winning goal late in the third period to complete the hat trick. However, forward Roope Hintz also made his presence felt. Hintz assisted on Robertson’s first two goals in his first game back since suffering an injury in Game 4 of the second round. He was also a big part of the team’s penalty kill, as the Oilers failed to score on their two power-play opportunities.
Dallas has now killed off all five of Edmonton’s power play opportunities in the series so far. And, while the Stars have not scored a power play goal themselves, they are likely a lot more comfortable playing 5-on-5 than Edmonton is. The Oilers’ power play helped carry the team through the first two rounds, but it hasn’t been a factor in the Western Conference Final thanks to solid defending and good goaltending from Jake Oettinger. According to Evolving Hockey, Oettinger has saved the team 3.64 goals above expected over the past three games.
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Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton is 5-5 straight up in its last 10 home games, and 5-5 straight up in its last 10 games against the Dallas Stars.
- Dallas has gone 7-3 straight up in its last 10 games as the underdog, and the Stars are 8-2 against the puck line in those games.
- The Stars have gone 6-1 straight up as the road team this postseason, while Edmonton has posted a 4-3 record as the home team so far in the playoffs. Overall, road teams have gone 42-34 (.553) this postseason.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Jason Robertson’s three-goal performance in Game 3 has propelled him to the top of the stat sheet. Robertson now leads the Stars with six goals and 16 points in 16 postseason games.
- Miro Heiskanen was on the ice for a goal against for the first time in seven games, which is incredible considering the position he plays. The Stars defenseman will likely get edged out by goaltender Jake Oettinger for the Conn Smythe trophy, should the Stars win the Stanley Cup, but he has been their best player. Heiskanen has played just over 28 minutes per game in the playoffs, and he’s just one point behind Robertson for the team lead with six goals and 15 points.
- After registering at least one point in each of Edmonton’s first 13 games, Leon Draisaitl has not produced a point in his last two games and he has just one goal in his last six outings.
- Connor McDavid registered six shots on goal in Game 3, so the Oilers’ captain did his best to take matters in his own hands. McDavid now has two goals and two assists in three playoff games versus the Stars.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Edmonton has scored at least three goals in all seven of its home games so far this postseason, while Dallas is averaging 3.29 goals per game on the road. As a result, the total has been changed from five and a half to six. So far in the playoffs, six out of seven games at Rogers Place have featured at least six goals, with five of the seven games featuring seven goals or more. Edmonton does not want to be pushed to the brink of elimination, so the Oilers will show some fight in Game 4, however, given how good the Stars have been, it’ll be tough for Edmonton to keep them off the scoreboard. Bet over six goals at even money.
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