Schedule and the Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton’s season divides neatly into two segments, at least
chronologically. There was the very good opening, when the club went 7-1-0 and
climbed to the top of its division. More recently, there’s been a very tough
fall from that height, with the Oilers losing five straight and eight of their
last 10.

However, breaking the season down into two streaks isn’t the
only—or even the best—way to look at Edmonton’s performance so far. It’s far
more interesting to look at who the Oilers win, and lose, against.

It was mentioned by more than one commentator at the time,
but the Oilers early season schedule was butter-soft. During that early
eight-game run, Edmonton played Calgary twice, Vancouver, Buffalo and Carolina.
That’s five of eight games against some of the worst teams in the NHL, and just
for good measure six of those eight games were at home.

Try finding those kinds of matchups in their latest 10
games. Sure they drew the shockingly bad Islanders and a less-than-mediocre Red
Wings team, but they won those games. Seven of the 10 games were on the road;
the game against Detroit saw the Oilers as the tired team in the second half of
a back-to-back. Meanwhile, they drew multiple games against the Rangers, played
the defending champs in Pittsburgh and went on the always-difficult California
road swing.

Perhaps the best way to break things down is by the
standings. I quickly sorted Edmonton’s opponents based on where they are in the
NHL standings—top 10, bottom 10 and mushy middle. I didn’t bother with
home/road splits, but know that they play into this, too. Here’s what the
Oilers record looks like against those teams:

There’s an old line that teams are never really as good as
they look when they’re winning games or as bad as they look when they’re losing
them, and it’s one I firmly believe in. In the case of the Oilers, the schedule
helped exaggerate matters—they played bad teams early and won a lot and they’ve
played good teams late and have lost more often than not.

This is an interesting way of breaking down the season for a
couple of different reasons.

First, it suggests that things are about to get better. After
games against Dallas (tonight) and Chicago, the Oilers will face Colorado, Toronto and
play two games against Arizona. That’s a much easier slate of teams than Edmonton
has seen lately, and right now it looks like a bunch of guys are going to be coming
off the injured list just in time for those games.

Second, it suggests that these Oilers are probably close to
full value for their record. They’ve played a balanced schedule now and are
hovering around 0.500. Most of the shot and scoring chance metrics have the
team hovering around 50 percent, which reinforces the idea.

In other words, there’s a pretty decent case that Edmonton
isn’t really a good team or a bad team, just a mediocre one that played a
butter-soft schedule early and a far uglier one of late. Schedule effects have
definitely exaggerated both the good and the bad of this team in the early part
of the season.