NHL Betting Preview (May 1): Kings vs. Oilers Game 5 Odds
2 months ago
Edmonton pushed Los Angeles to the brink of elimination with a 1-0 win in Game 4. The Oilers can eliminate the Kings on Wednesday. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make Game 5 intriguing, from a betting perspective.
Kings vs. Oilers Game 5 Odds
- Los Angeles Kings Moneyline Odds: -200
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: +165
- Puck Line Odds: Kings +1.5 (-155), Oilers -1.5 (+130)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -120, under +100)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Series Odds Update
Edmonton’s current series odds (-3000) imply that the Oilers will win the series 96.7 percent of the time. That makes sense when you consider that teams up 3-1 have gone on to win the series more than 90 percent of the time, and Edmonton is not your average team. Historically, teams up 3-1 are 309-32 all time, according to Hockey Reference. Edmonton is currently listed as a co-favourite to win the Stanley Cup at 4/1 odds. Winnipeg was eliminated on Tuesday, while Vancouver and Toronto might not make it out of the first round. So, Edmonton is now Canada’s best hope.
Handicapping the Kings (45-41 SU, 40-46 ATS, 34-49 OU)
Los Angeles might feel like the series should be tied after controlling the play in Sunday’s 1-0 loss. The Kings outshot the Oilers 33-12 in Game 4, and they also had a 14-4 edge in high-danger shot attempts at 5-on-5, but they were unable to beat Stuart Skinner. Los Angeles has scored just one goal on its last 61 shots on goal.
The Kings have learned nothing from the past two years, as special teams continue to be a disaster. In 2022, Los Angeles had a power play success rate of 12.5 percent and a penalty kill success rate of 63.2 percent. Then, in 2023, the Kings’ power play improved, converting on 33.3 percent of their opportunities, but their penalty kill was successful only 43.8 percent of the time.
In this series, however, Los Angeles has gone 0-11 on the power play, and after allowing a goal against on Edmonton’s lone power play in Game 4, the Oilers are now 8-14 (53.33 percent) with the man advantage. As a result, it doesn’t feel like it’s a matter of when will the Oilers win the series rather than if.
When will the series end? Well, Edmonton is a -190 favourite in Game 5, which implies that there is a 65.5 percent chance that the series will end on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Game 6 is listed at +310 (24.4 percent chance) and game 7 is priced at +425 (19 percent chance).
Handicapping the Oilers (52-34 SU, 40-46 ATS, 38-45 O/U)
Stuart Skinner saved his best for when the Oilers needed him the most. According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton generated just 29 percent of the 5-on-5 expected goals and 46 percent of the shot attempts in Game 4. With that said, it’s important that Edmonton rebounds offensively.
The Oilers weren’t themselves in Game 4, and in Game 2 for that matter, but they have the blueprint to achieve success against this Kings team. In Game 1, Edmonton owned approximately 57 percent of the 5-on-5 expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. Then, in Game 3, the Oilers finished with around 69 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. If that team shows up on Wednesday, it’ll be curtains for the Kings, and a real sign that the Oilers have staying power as a Stanley Cup contender.
Four teams faced elimination on Tuesday, each down 3-1 in their respective series, but only two teams (Colorado and Carolina) got the job done. Meanwhile, the Bruins and Canucks failed to finish the job. That’s the difference between a contender, and a pretender, and Edmonton’s performance in Game 5 will indicate which type of team they are. Bettors don’t seem to be attracted to the Oilers at -200, though, as that’s where they opened.
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Team Betting Trends
- Games 4 was the first to go under the total in the series, and the Kings offensive struggles have had a slight impact on the Game 5 total. The over/under is currently set at six, over -120.
- Edmonton is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 meetings versus Los Angeles, and they have covered the puck line in six of those meetings. At home, the Oilers have gone 7-3 against the Kings in their last 10 games, covering the puck line seven times.
- Edmonton lost Game 5 against Los Angeles in 2022 by a score of 5-4, but won Game 5 in 2023 by a score of 6-3. Both games were played at Rogers Place. However, the Oilers didn’t have a 3-1 series lead like they do heading into Wednesday’s Game 5.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Connor McDavid now has a point on all eight of Edmonton’s power play goals in the series. The Oilers’ captain has one power play goal, four primary assists, and three secondary assists. Eight of his 10 points in the playoffs have come on the man advantage.
- Evander Kane has registered 16 shots in the playoffs so far. Game 4 was the first time Kane did not go over his shots on goal prop, as he finished with just two shots on goal. No. 91 finished Games 1 and 2 with 10 shots on goal and he is listed at -120 to go over 2.5 shots on goal in Game 5.
- Only one player, Val Nichushkin, has scored more playoff goals than Zach Hyman so far this postseason and he had an extra game to do it. Hyman now has six goals on 16 shots. He is listed at even money (+100) to score a goal on Wednesday.
- Adrian Kempe and Drew Doughty are the only members of the Kings that have managed to light the lamp multiple times in the series. Kempe, who scored three goals in the first two games, is listed at +190 to score in Game 5, while Doughty is priced at +500. Viktor Arvidsson (+210), Quinton Byfield (+500), Alex Laferriere (+550), and Phillip Danault (+350) have yet to score in the series.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
McDavid has registered at least one assist in each game, including five assists in Game 1 and two assists in Game 3. With the Kings on the ropes, it’s imperative that McDavid continues to do what he does best: setting up his teammates in creative ways. He’s registered at least two assists in eight out of 17 career playoff games versus Los Angeles, and Bet365 currently has the best odds (+150) in the market on over 1.5 assists. Bet on McDavid to register at least two assists at +150 odds.
GAME DAY ARTICLE PRESENTED BY BET365
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