The Oilers Won the Visnovsky Trade

In his latest column, veteran writer Jim Matheson asks a question that rears its ugly head every so often around these parts:

I know that I’d make that trade over again in a heartbeat.

It’s pretty simple, really: Lubomir Visnovsky is a far better player than either Stoll or Greene.

Matheson in his column talks about how the Oilers have a surplus of offensive defensemen, and how they never managed to replace Greene or Stoll, but both of those points are largely irrelevant.

The surplus of offensive defensemen isn’t a bad thing, and if the Oilers could I imagine they would keep their top four intact. The limiting factors are a pressing need for more help up front and salary cap issues. The former could have been addressed through free agency – and still could be – while the latter is simply a case of too many players getting contracts they aren’t likely to outperform. The point is that if the Oilers are moving a defenseman, it’s their own fault.

As for Jarret Stoll, he’s now recorded between 36 and 41 points in each of his last three seasons, and has been signed long-term for 3.6MM/season. As tempting as it is to look at his success in L.A. and say the Oilers made a mistake, the fact of the matter is that he’s playing a much different role for the Kings. Let’s compare his numbers, his quality of competition and teammates, and which faceoffs he’s getting sent out for:

That’s a huge contrast. Stoll has gone from playing the best players on the other team with lousy linemates to playing third-rate players with great linemates. He’s gone from getting sent out in the defensive zone every faceoff to an even split. That’s why he’s gained +16 in plus/minus. On the flip side, he’s still a minus player, and although he does well on special teams (he does put up points on the powerplay and effectively kill penalties) he’s an offensive sinkhole at even-strength – just like he was in 2007-08. His 1.40 PTS/60 slides nicely into the bottom of the Oilers list:

Stoll was a mess as a checking centre in 2007-08, and L.A. wisely took him out of that situation. He’s a specialist on both the PK and PP, but at even-strength he’s nothing special and hasn’t been since a career-altering concussion in 2006-07. That year he managed 20 points at even strength in just 51 games, but in the years since he’s recorded 20 and 19 points at even-strength. The fact of the matter is that he has yet to be the player Oilers fans remember from before his concussion, and it’s completely plausible that he never will be.

Matheson talks about the need the Oilers have for a right-handed faceoff man to take defensive draws. Let’s compare Stoll’s numbers from 2007-08 with another right-handed centre from this past season:

Granted, Brodziak wasn’t playing against the toughs the way Stoll did, and he wasn’t as brilliant on faceoffs as Stoll was. However, he contributed the same amount of even-strength offense with far less ice-time, was +27 better on the plus/minus scale, and costs about one-third as much as Stoll will for the next three seasons.

Also, when it comes to not replacing Stoll as a faceoff specialist, that represented an unforced error on Kevin Lowe’s part: in 2007-08, he not only traded away Stoll, but he also declined to sign Marty Reasoner. Reasoner, a cheap faceoff ace and a very good defensive forward, signed in Atlanta (again, for roughly one-third of Stoll’s price) and would have been a valuable part of the team this past season. Not only that, but according to his public remarks, he wanted to stay, and he’s always had the reputation of being a team-first guy in the dressing room.

That brings us to Matt Greene, who after years of struggling in a depth role with the Oilers finally paid off big-time as a shut-down defenseman in Los Angeles. He’s big, he’s nasty, and all of a sudden he’s helping his hockey team win games.

There are, however, two points worth making about Greene:

I like both players the Oilers sent away to get Visnovsky, but frankly it was still a good trade. Jarret Stoll’s play has dropped off dramatically since suffering that concussion two years ago, and Matt Greene for all of his strengths isn’t in the same class as the guy the Oilers got.

One thing I haven’t gone to great lengths to emphasize is just how good of a player Visnovsky is.

Matheson talks about Denis Grebeshkov as a replacement for Visnovsky, but even at his best Grebeshkov doesn’t have the poise of the former or the same level of puck-moving ability. Visnovsky’s the most talented puck-distributing defenseman this town has seen since at least Chris Pronger, and quite possibly since Paul Coffey. The Oilers’ inability to bring in a third-line centre this past season shouldn’t be held against him.