Where does Jeff Skinner fit into the Edmonton Oilers lineup?

It was a busy offseason for the Edmonton Oilers, making many unexpected moves that are going to make the team better now and into the future.

There will be many new faces coming into the locker room next season, and a few familiar ones, too. It all begs the question: where do they fit into the Oilers’ lineup?

After the Buffalo Sabres bought out the final three years and $27-million of Jeff Skinner’s contract, he signed a one-year, $3-million deal with the Edmonton Oilers, turning down the Toronto Maple Leafs and other teams’ offers.

Skinner, a left-shot left-winger, has long been a productive scorer, scoring 20 or more goals in 10 of 14 seasons, and 15 or more five-on-five goals in 10, as well. Six seasons have seen him rack up 20 or more five-on-five goals, and this year the Oilers are hoping he makes it seven.

The 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons were the worst of Skinner’s career, dealing with injuries and scoring just 37 points in 112 games. Ironically, those were the first two years of his $9-million extension, as he saw limited ice time and fewer opportunities under then-head coach Ralph Krueger.  But the past three seasons have seen a big resurgence in his career, scoring 92 goals and 191 points in 233 games.

Among 285 forwards who played over 2000 minutes at five-on-five, half of Skinner’s ice-time over those years, his 1.25 goals per hour ranks ninth, his 2.61 points per hour rank 12th, his 10.15 shots per hour rank 15th, and his 11.29 individual scoring chances per hour rank 15th. For reference, those rank first, fourth, second and second among all Oilers forwards over that time.

His underlying numbers have been strong over that stretch, too, consistently at or above average in terms of shot attempt share, expected goal share, scoring chance share and, most importantly, goal share.

Skinner’s on-ice contributions last year, according to HockeyViz.com, were among the worst of his career. He contributed even-strength offence at a five percent rate above league average, and defence at a 13 percent rate below league average. All in all, his contributions had him at the level of a third-liner, which ironically enough, is exactly what the Oilers are paying him in terms of his contract value.

The biggest knock on Skinner throughout his career has been his poor defensive play, and HockeyViz has him as a player who has consistently been below average in this area. His most common linemates over the last three years in Buffalo were far and away Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Thompson’s defensive game started to come around this season, while Tuch has long been a strong winger defensively.

They played high-event hockey scoring lots, but allowing a lot of goals against, as well. Their goaltending let them down over time, but it helps to paint a picture of Skinner and the style of play he’s used to.

Edmonton’s a team that loves their high-event hockey, so in that sense, he will fit in very well. Skinner’s going to have ample opportunity to score goals this year, even though he won’t find himself on the top power-play unit.

A lot of the talk about Skinner’s arrival in Edmonton coincides with the Oilers’ need to get Leon Draisaitl some help on the wing. It’s logical to think that Skinner will be a great fit there this year. Draisaitl’s defensive game has taken a big step forward over the last two years and this year might have been his best.

The goal of that line, much like the first, is to keep their heads above water outscoring the opponent, something Draisaitl hasn’t had much issue with doing in the last two seasons, with a 52.7 and 58.11 GF%.

Another option for the Oilers would be having Skinner on the third line alongside someone like Adam Henrique, who has long been a solid defensive centre. The only issue there is that the Oilers have a chance to run a true checking line on the third line, with Rico centring Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown.

Nugent-Hopkins could always drop down the lineup, in theory, but I think his spot is locked in on the top line alongside Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, where he’s played the best hockey of his career.

Where do you think Skinner best fits in the lineup?