After a trio of wins over the Canucks, Islanders, and Predators, the Edmonton Oilers are back on the road for a Hockey Night in Canada matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s game day.
As an Oilers fan growing up, there was nothing more annoying than having the Leafs in the early slot on Hockey Night in Canada every single week. With few options to watch games at that point, the Saturday broadcast was must-see TV in my house, and I developed a healthy dislike of the Maple Leafs because of the overexposure and the fact that Oilers games — and the team itself — weren’t given any attention. Call it jealousy, envy, or whatever you’d like, but it doesn’t take much for a lot of us to actively root against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
That ingrained childhood disdain for the Leafs always raises the stakes anytime I see them on the Oilers’ schedule, and today’s matchup is no different. With both teams being as competitive as they are on an annual basis — Toronto not getting past the first round notwithstanding — the direct comparison as Stanley Cup contenders always comes out. From my side of the computer screen, the comparison never makes much sense since the Oilers have had significantly more playoff success than Toronto over the last handful of years, but that doesn’t stop the centre of the universe from believing these teams are equal.
Yet, if there’s one thing the Leafs know how to do, it’s win in the regular season, and that always presents a challenge. These two teams split their season series in 2023-24 with one win apiece, each coming on home ice. Looking back over the last few years, Scotiabank Arena hasn’t been overly kind to our beloved heroes. The last time the Oilers won in Toronto was on March 29, 2021, which happened to be during the weird COVID season when no one was in the building. If we’re going to buck that trend and get back in the win column, the most important thing I can think of is being careful with the puck because the Leafs have more than a few players who can hurt you if you’re not careful.
Even without Auston Matthews in the lineup, the Leafs are chugging along quite nicely. At 4-1 without their captain, the Maple Leafs have outscored their opposition by a sparkling 15-7 margin. They’re scoring plenty of goals while also getting the goaltending needed to cover up any mistakes. And while we can absolutely point to the fact that three of those wins came against teams who aren’t expected to make the playoffs, you still have to get the job done, and the Leafs are certainly doing that. Regardless of our biases and belief that the Oilers can beat anybody, they’ve got a real challenge on their hands — one that will take the best from everyone if they’re going to extend this winning streak.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
LEAFS
RECORD
9-7-1
10-6-2
WIN/LOSS STREAK
W3
W1
LAST 10 GAMES
7-3-0
6-2-2
GOALS FOR
47
54
GOALS AGAINST
53
47
POWER PLAY%
15.9
20.3
PENALTY KILL%
62.8
84.9
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
33.5
30.6
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
25.5
28.6
TEAM SAVE%
.919
.930
CORSI FOR%
56.91
49.70
PDO
0.978
1.012
TEAM SHOOTING%
6.68
8.19
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
57.03
51.67
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
  • Saturday’s game marks the first of two meetings between the Oilers and Maple Leafs, with the second coming on February 1st at Rogers Place. The Oilers have an overall record of 49-57-8-5 vs. Toronto in 119 all-time matchups, with the bulk of their wins coming on home ice. On the road, Edmonton sports a 20-31-2-3 record against the Leafs, and we’ll have to hope that those fortunes change a little bit tonight.
  • The Oilers and Maple Leafs split their season series in 2023-24 with the Oilers claiming a 4-2 win at Rogers Place on January 16th after erasing a 2-0 deficit with four goals in the final 24:19 of regulation time. Derek Ryan collected his 200th career point and Mattias Ekholm snagged his 300th career point that night, while Evan Bouchard notched a goal and an assist. The Leafs then evened the season series with a 6-3 win at Scotiabank Arena on March 23rd on a night that saw Connor McDavid tally three third assists.
  • From all of his time in the Eastern Conference, Jeff Skinner leads all active Oilers in career games played versus Toronto (43), while Connor McDavid leads all active Oilers in career points (35) against the Maple Leafs.
  • The Oilers nearly blew two consecutive third period leads over the New York Islanders and Nashville Predators only to capture the victory in the bonus period. It would be really nice if they could avoid that situation altogether and find a way to win in regulation.
  • Tonight’s game is number 899 for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who trails only Ryan Smith (971) and Kevin Lowe (1037) for most in franchise history.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Perry
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Skinner – Ryan
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Kulak
Dermott – Emberson
Stecher
Skinner
According to Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers are going back to the 11/7 configuration again on Saturday as Viktor Arvidsson remains on the shelf. Arvidsson did travel with the team and participated in the morning skate, but whatever is bothering him is clearly a little more severe than initially reported. As a result, Corey Perry is getting the bump to Lean Draisaitl’s line — at least to start — and we’ll see how the 39-year-old vet fits higher up in the lineup than he proabably should at this stage of his career.

Leafs

McMann – Tavares – Marner
Knies – Domi – Nylander
Steeves – Kampf – Robertson
Dewar – Lorentz – Reaves
McCabe – Tanev
Rielly – Hakanpaa
Ekman-Larsson – Timmins
Stolarz
The Maple Leafs will be without Auston Matthews for the sixth straight game while their captain continues to recover from some kind of upper-body injury. Yet, even in his absence, the Leafs have still found a way to average three goals per game, which includes a night where they were shut out by the Ottawa Senators.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Arun Srinivasan, editor at TheLeafsNation.com:
It’s a strange phenomena, but the Maple Leafs are 4-1 during Matthews’ most recent absence and have historically responded well without the reigning Rocket Richard winner in the lineup. Mitch Marner has recorded three goals and eight points during this five-game span, William Nylander is tied for the NHL goal-scoring lead at the time of this filing, while John Tavares is using his hockey intelligence and power game to push himself constantly into high-danger areas.
Although Toronto’s best players — along with Matthew Knies, who has emerged as a true breakout star — the 5-on-5 offence has largely dried up, and it’s becoming a cause for concern. Toronto led the NHL in 5-on-5 goals last season, but it ranks 16th prior to Friday’s game with 33 tallies at 5-on-5, and it’s been a top-heavy production. Nylander, Knies, Tavares and Bobby McMann are responsible for 20 of Toronto’s 33 5-on-5 goals, and this doesn’t account for Marner’s two goals, or the two goals each from the injured Matthews and Max Pacioretty. There’s decent positional versatility throughout the lineup but ultimately, this has been a two-line team at even strength.

TONIGHT…

Edmonton Oilers Darnell Nurse Toronto Maple Leafs Photoshop
Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
Game Day Prediction: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are both heating up in a very real way, which is bad news for the Maple Leafs. The Dynamic Duo combine for four points on the night, and power the Oilers to a 6-1 victory.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Both Leon Draisaitl (3G, 3A) and Connor McDavid (3G, 6A) have points in three straight games, and both will extend that streak on Saturday.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Oilers’ penalty kill makes it three straight games without surrendering a goal. Dare to dream, friends.

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