It’s a small sample, but it seems that the Edmonton Oilers have found a strong second line with Leon Draisaitl centering Vasili Podkolzin and Jeff Skinner. Stylistically, with Podkolzin’s forechecking and defensive prowess, alongside Skinner’s scoring touch and offensive instincts, they fit well together and effectively complement Draisaitl, at least on paper.
Moving forward, Kris Knoblauch should be giving that line a long look, as this trio has the potential for huge success. Now, the head coach’s next task is to find the proper wingers for Connor McDavid on the top line.
The reason I stress this is because McDavid is currently operating at a net negative goal differential without Draisaitl on-ice at 5-on-5.
When they obtain shifts together, which is typically after a penalty kill or when the team needs a goal, McDavid and Draisaitl have been an unstoppable force, out-scoring opponents 25-to-14 in 326 minutes. This equates to a brilliant 64 percent goal differential. Away from McDavid, Draisaitl has still maintained a very strong 57 percent goal differential, which is at an even superior 61 percent since the beginning of November. It’s one of many reasons why I strongly believe Draisaitl should be the leading Hart Trophy candidate.
But away from Draisaitl, McDavid holds a quite subpar 44 percent goal differential, as his line has been out-scored 23-to-29.
It’s even worse if you look at the timespan since the beginning of the new year, as McDavid has been out-scored 3-to-8 without Draisaitl (27 percent goal differential) since the start of January. This is not typical of him, as last season, he was at 60 percent away from Draisaitl in 2024-25, and an overall positive in every other season of his career with the exception of 2018-19 (which is understandable considering the atrocious winger depth at the time).
So, what’s going on here?
Firstly, it is worth noting that some external factors are at play here. For instance, McDavid has had some terrible goaltending luck. Without Draisaitl, the Oilers have an abysmal 0.868 on-ice save percentage with McDavid on-ice, allowing a full 10 goals more than expected. This should eventually regress, as McDavid still holds a strong 55 percent scoring chance share on his own.
However, McDavid’s line has scored at a rate of 2.65 goals per hour. For reference, it was at 4.07 last year, meaning his line’s scoring rate has declined by a full 35 percent.
So regardless of what way we look at this, it is evident that McDavid’s line is not nearly as dominant as it was last season. The expected goal share is still strong, but not at the level that we usually see from the best player in the league.
Perhaps we can partially attribute this to injury or sickness. It does seem that a bug has been going through the Oilers’ dressing room recently, so in the long run, I doubt this is something to be overly concerned about. I’m confident that McDavid will eventually return to his usual self. But at the same time, the coaching staff must find a way to fully maximize their top player for the playoffs and optimize his deployment.
With all of that in mind, who are the ideal wingers for McDavid?
This season, the Oilers have deployed five different lines with McDavid that have played at least 30 minutes together at 5v5 (with the exception of lines that have Draisaitl on it). Here are their results:
Most recently, Edmonton has deployed a top line of McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Viktor Arvidsson. Considering the low sample size, and how Arvidsson has hardly played next to McDavid this season, I believe it’s still a fine idea to continue with that trio just to observe how well they could perform over a greater sample; but, there may be better options out there.
Now, while some of these samples are not significantly large, we can see a very visible trend in the graphic above; McDavid’s best results have come next to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
I have seen some criticism towards RNH for his unimpressive production next to the most productive players in the league, which is completely reasonable. That being said, when puck-dominant players like McDavid, Hyman and Bouchard are on-ice, the other winger is not always going to score a ton of points. The on-ice results still indicate that RNH provides substantial two-way value to McDavid’s line, which is what ultimately matters.
Now, what stands out to me on that graphic are the results of the RNH – McDavid – Connor Brown line. Brown has scored at a rate of 1.67 points per hour at 5v5 this season, a roughly median second-line rate despite primarily playing in the bottom-six, and is additionally a responsible defensive player; perhaps there is potential there for him in the top-six. Why this line appeals to me is that the Oilers would then have the option of moving Zach Hyman down to the third line to help Adam Henrique.
This means the Oilers could deploy a very strong third-line of Arvidsson, Henrique, and Hyman. Granted that top-line works, the Oilers would consequently possess an extremely balanced top-nine.
However, there is still a strong case for keeping Hyman on McDavid’s wing. While Hyman is not the 50+ goal scorer he was last season, he is still Edmonton’s best natural winger, and McDavid’s track record with Hyman should not be ignored. Away from Draisaitl, the McDavid and Hyman duo holds an excellent 58 percent goal differential and a 61 percent expected goal differential since the start of 2022-23 in a massive sample of 1433 minutes. The RNH – McDavid – Hyman line still has strong results and, given the sample size, is likely their best possible top-line.
So, it all comes down to whether Knoblauch wants to maximize the top line with Hyman at 1RW, or play Brown at 1RW and move Hyman down to create an overall well-balanced top-nine. Both options have their various pros and cons.
Of course, the Oilers aren’t only limited to these choices either.
For one, I am quite interested to see how a top line of Henrique, McDavid and Hyman would fare over a large sample. In 2023-24, Henrique played on the top line with McDavid and Hyman to end the regular season and begin the 2024 playoffs. Across roughly 80 minutes of play together, they produced an excellent 60 percent expected goal share, out-scoring opponents 8-to-3. Unfortunately, Henrique’s injury caused them to separate that line, but this is an intriguing option, especially considering that Henrique’s results as Edmonton’s 3C have been quite lacklustre this season. There’s an argument to be made that Henrique works best as a winger as opposed to a center on this roster.
What makes this option even more intriguing is that RNH and Brown have produced solid results as a duo together, overall. While RNH has never really found success as a third-line center, I would primarily attribute it to Edmonton’s mediocre winger depth over the years. A third line of Arvidsson – RNH – Brown works well on paper.
Some may suggest Evander Kane as an option if/when he returns from injury this season, but I’m not a fan. While he did have success with McDavid in the 2022 playoffs, it was the result of a highly unsustainable shooting-percentage heater, and from 2022-23 – 2023-24, the Oilers were out-scored 19-to-24 when Kane has played on McDavid’s wing (44 GF%). It’s very likely that, after missing significant time and coming off a major surgery, Kane will not be an effective top-line winger for a cup contender.
The Oilers could even explore the trade market here. Considering that they rank 26th in the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage, they could benefit from adding another scoring winger, someone with efficient finishing talent. Names like Alex Tuch and Brock Nelson stand out, and could help Edmonton form what would undoubtedly be the best forward core in the NHL.
All-in-all, the Oilers possess several options here. With 27 games remaining this season, Kris Knoblauch should experiment with different line combinations and determine who works best next to McDavid before the beginning of the 2025 playoffs.
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