For the majority of the past two seasons, Derek Ryan has been the fourth-line centre for the Edmonton Oilers. While he has not been the most productive player in the world, his excellent possession metrics, penalty-killing experience and strong faceoff abilities, topped off by his veteran presence for Edmonton’s younger players, allowed him to be a valuable asset to Edmonton’s bottom-six for several years, playing 258 regular-season games and 45 playoff games in total for the organization.
Unfortunately, age catches up to us all. At 38, Ryan was simply not cutting it at 4C this season, and just last week, the Oilers placed him on waivers and assigned him to the Bakersfield Condors, Edmonton’s AHL affiliate.
A few days prior to Ryan’s departure, forward Noah Philp was recalled to Edmonton from the Condors. Ever since, he has been playing in Ryan’s spot at 4C.
Philp is a 26-year-old centre who was signed by the Oilers organization in April of 2022 after playing two years of college hockey at the University of Alberta. Following a three-game amateur tryout with the Bakersfield Condors to end the 2021-22 season, Philp played 70 games for Bakersfield in 2022-23, accumulating 37 points. What was particularly notable about that season was that 32 of Philp’s 37 points came in his final 42 games, as he was fantastic to end the year and showcased some potential. However, he took a personal leave the following season, not playing any professional hockey in 2023-24.
But, Philp has now resumed his career in 2024-25. After 28 games with the Condors this season, Philp has an opportunity to be a mainstay at the NHL level for one of the top cup contenders in the league. Thus far, he has played 9 games for the Oilers at the NHL level, and at a glance, there are several reasons to believe that Philp could be a significant upgrade on Ryan.
The first reason is obvious; age. Ryan is 38, while Philp is 26, a full 12 years younger. The Oilers are currently projected to be the oldest team in the NHL, and with several other aged veteran players on Edmonton roster, such as 34-year-old Adam Henrique and 39-year-old Corey Perry, it’s a wise idea to inject fresh, younger legs into the lineup.
So far, we also see some green flags on the ice. Keep in mind that the sample is quite small, but here is a comparison of Ryan and Philp’s underlying at the NHL level this season:
The (very early) on-ice results are quite encouraging, as the Oilers have out-scored opponents 5 to 3 with Philp on-ice at 5v5, while controlling 56 percent of the scoring chances. This is a substantial upgrade on Ryan, whose line was generally caved in at 5v5, getting out-scored at a rate of 8 to 13. Philp has yet to score a goal in the NHL, but his 2 points in 9 games are still enough for him to surpass Derek Ryan in both point-per-game and 5-on-5 points per hour rate.
Additionally, one common concern with Edmonton’s bottom-six was their speed, and it seems that Philp also helps to address that. The website NHL EDGE provides unique data such as speed bursts over a certain threshold; this stat is far from perfect at precisely measuring speed (attributes such as agility and edgework are not captured in this metric), but Philp averaging more than twice the amount of speed bursts per 60 than Ryan is certainly something to note. Even without this data at all, it’s evident through watching the games that Philp’s skating has taken a big step forward this year.
All things considered, these results are far from eye-popping (and again, the small sample must be taken into consideration), but they are promising. However, the big question moving forward; is Philp good enough for a cup contender? Or at least, will the coaching staff and management think he is?
Per Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic, the Oilers are “keeping an eye on other players” for the 4C spot, suggesting names such as Nick Bjugstad, Jake Evans, and even Jonathan Toews. It seems that the Oilers are currently giving Philp a test run, and then six weeks from now at the NHL trade deadline, they will make the decision on whether to upgrade him or not. Worth mentioning that the Oilers did attempt to trade for a 4C at last year’s trade deadline in Sam Carrick, but he was never a particularly useful player for Edmonton; eventually, they ended up sticking with Ryan at 4C for most of their 2024 playoff run.
Don’t expect Philp to be an impressive goal-scorer or producer in the NHL at this stage of his career. It’s just not the type of player he is. But, there is certainly potential here for Philp to develop into an poised, defensively-oriented 4C for the team. He’s a particularly strong forechecker, as he has excelled at forcing opposition turnovers in the limited time he has played thus far (take a look at his assist on a goal from Zach Hyman for example), while he is also strong at retrieving loose pucks, often using his strength and 6’3 frame to his advantage.
One big factor in Philp’s potential effectiveness as 4C? His deployment. Here is a list of Philp’s TOI in each of his 9 games in the NHL: 6:49, 10:55, 5:15, 10:17, 7:42, 8:42, 9:58, 8:46 and 11:54. The total average is 9:11.
Of course, no one is expecting Philp to play 20 minutes per night, but it is difficult to truly see what he is capable of in such limited deployment, especially when he plays a mere 5-6 minutes some nights. With the Oilers in a secure spot in the standings, ranking first in their division, and with the remainder of their schedule being relatively easier, it seems like the perfect time to slightly increase Philp’s workload and obtain a better idea of what sort of impact he can make. It would also be a good idea to give Philp some extended run on the penalty-kill, which would undoubtedly increase his chances of remaining on the NHL roster if he were to perform well there.
So, will a 4C be on Edmonton’s to-do list at the 2025 NHL trade deadline? Or, will Noah Philp exceed expectations and force Edmonton to keep him in the NHL? This will be an interesting storyline to observe down the stretch.
