Connor McDavid will be re-evaluated today. A source told me their initial thought is that it isn’t too serious, but they need to do further testing before determining any sort of timeline for his return. The Oilers play in Nashville on Thursday, then fly home. They will practice in Edmonton before Sunday’s road game in Calgary. Best case scenario: He only misses one game, but with them playing Sunday, Monday and next Wednesday, even if he is only out short-term, he could easily miss more than one game. Worst case scenario: He’s out months.

Regardless of how long he is out, the Oilers can’t feel sorry for themselves. Injuries are a part of the game, and while losing your best players hurts more than losing a depth player, good teams find ways to win even when they don’t ice their best lineups.

The Oilers haven’t had to play many games without their captain. He has only missed 19 games since he was named the youngest captain (19 years, 266 days) on October 5th, 2016, and in two of those games, he was healthy and scratched for the final game of the regular seasons in 2022 and 2024.

McDavid did miss 37 games in his rookie season. The Oilers went 14-18-5 without him (.445 P%) and in the 45 games he played they were 17-25-3 (.411P%). They scored more points without him, but I don’t think anyone would think they were better with him out of the lineup. They weren’t a good team in his rookie season, with or without him.

The last time the Oilers missed the playoffs was 2018-19. McDavid missed four games that season, and the Oilers went 1-1-2. Both losses came in the shootout. They were 34-37-9 with him. They managed to pick up four points in four games without him.

The most consecutive games he’s missed was six during the 2019-20 season. The Oilers went 3-2-1 in those six games and Leon Draisaitl produced 12 points. He missed another game that season that they lost in a SO. They were 3-2-2.

In 2021-22 he missed two games. They were 1-1 without him. They defeated Vancouver and lost to Toronto.

Last season he missed six games. He missed two early in the season and the Oilers lost both. They started the season 1-3-1 with him, then went 0-2 without him before going 2-4 in the next six games with him. Then they made a coaching change and the team took off. The Oilers were a train wreck in their first 13 games last season, with or without him.

In April he sat out three games with an injury. They Oilers went 1-1-1. They defeated Vegas, lost to Vancouver and lost to Arizona in OT. He also sat out the season finale, but so did Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. Not surprisingly, the Oilers lost in Colorado without their six best players.

The Oilers went 6-7-5 without him (I didn’t include the game v. COL when six top guys sat out). It isn’t a great record. His void was most noticeable in OT/SO.

The most Captain Obvious statement is the Oilers are better with McDavid. We all know it, and so do they, however, there is no reason they can’t be competitive for the short term. If he was out an extended period of time, trying to stay afloat would be more challenging, especially right now when the offense couldn’t score in a brothel with $500.

I’ll admit I’m quite surprised at their inability to score. It isn’t from a lack of chances, so I don’t understand why people keep claiming the Oilers’ offensive struggles are because they are slower without Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele and Dylan Holloway. Holloway had no points in the first 10 games last season. McLeod had one assist. Foegele was the only one producing with three goals and four points. Jeff Skinner has matched his production with four points in four games this year. I think they miss Evander Kane more than the other three. He’s quick, but also physical and can score.

I don’t see the correlation to lack of goals from a dip in overall team speed. The Oilers simply can’t finish. They are creating a lot of chances, but they have hit the goalie in the chest at a very high rate. The saying “He has a quick chest, shoot somewhere else,” aptly describes the Oilers.

I’m certain you’ve read or heard how the Oilers will score more soon. It is a logical assumption based on averages and their natural skill. I understand the math says it will happen, but are you certain of when that will occur? Last season the Oilers scored 193 goals at 5×5 but were expected to score 213 according to Natural Stat Trick. But how accurate is their xGF% model? They don’t use video to track it, nor do they look to see if the goalie was set before the shot or not. Was the shooter himself set, and how much “wood” did they get on the shot? There are many factors that go into tallying expected goals. It can give you some indication, but I wouldn’t trust it blindly as though it is guaranteed accurate, and that it means the Oilers will suddenly start filling the net.

The Oilers were 15th in 5×5 SH% last season at 8.81% with 193 goals on 2190 shots. They are currently 32nd at 4.90Sh% with 14 goals on 286 shots. Last season through 10 games they had a 6.64SH% with 17 goals on 256 shots. They aren’t drastically behind, so logically they could improve, but expecting this group to suddenly have a high SH% might not be realistic.

The other main issue is the first unit power play. The Oilers’ PP had nine goals through 10 games last season and a 17.65SH%. This season they have four goals and a 10.65SH%, and their second unit has scored two of the four goals. Their top unit hasn’t been in sync, and they’ve been unable to even gain momentum on the power play. They need more movement on the man advantage.

I don’t believe scoring is just luck. Of course, there is some luck involved, just like goalies can get lucky and have pucks hit them when they don’t see it, but scoring is a skill and right now the Oilers haven’t shown enough skill around the net to finish off their scoring chances. They need better shot placement on their high danger chances, and without McDavid in the lineup, the other top-six forwards need to find their offensive finish.

Leon Draisaitl will be looked upon to lead them offensively. He already has six goals in 10 games, but he can’t do it alone. The other forwards, excluding McDavid, have combined for a total of six goals. Jeff Skinner has two, Adam Henrique, Corey Perry, Connor Brown and RNH each have one.

The Oilers forwards are on pace to score 123 goals. Draisaitl is on pace to score 49 himself. The lack of offence from the forwards is stunning. They rank dead last in the NHL in goals by forwards with 15. They were fourth last season with 244 and in 2023 they were first with 286. Again, they are on pace for 123. Ouch.

I understand some want to focus on Stuart Skinner, but he isn’t the main issue. Skinner and the Oilers were equally bad on opening night v. Winnipeg. Last night he had no chance on the first goal, but they needed a save on the second goal for sure. Skinner’s five games in between were solid. He was very good against Philadelphia, Carolina and Pittsburgh. It is fair to say he can’t implode and give up five and six goals in two of his seven starts — very fair, but he’s at least had some strong games.

Outside of the Pittsburgh game, where the Oilers scored four goals, their offence hasn’t finished regularly. And they needed 50 shots to score four goals.

You can’t expect your goalie to allow two goals on a nightly basis to win consistently in today’s NHL. They need to do that the odd game but a quick look at games across the NHL shows you it isn’t realistic to win low-scoring games regularly. This season, in the 146 games played, the winning team has scored two goals or fewer 13 times. That is 8.9% of games won scoring one or two goals. And three of those wins came in a shootout, where the losing team also scored twice. Team only win 6.8% of their games when scoring two goals or fewer and outscore the opposition prior to a shootout.

Last season teams won 8.9% of the games (117) when they scored two goals or fewer and outscored the opposition prior to a shootout.

It seems odd to me for many to claim Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are an average tandem, yet in the same breath expect them to only allow two goals so the Oilers can win. It should happen about 8-9% of the time, based on the league average last season, which is close to once every 10 games. The Oilers have to hope that one or two of those performances happen with McDavid out of the lineup, when their odds of scoring diminish even more.

Through the first 10 games of the season, the lack of offense has been the most consistent issue.

The timing of McDavid’s injury couldn’t come at a worse time, due to the offensive struggles. But adversity often shows the true character of an individual or a group, and the Oilers have shown in the past they can remain competitive without their captain.

They need to do it again, and the forwards need to start burying their chances. Expected goals doesn’t win games.

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