Goaltender is the most volatile and unpredictable position to evaluate in the NHL. From one season to the next, we’ve seen significant changes in stats from top goalies. Even the best goalie in the NHL can get lit up unexpectedly.
Connor Hellebuyck posted a .920Sv% and 2.49 GAA in 64 regular season starts in 2022-23. In five playoff games he had an .886Sv% and 3.44 GAA. Hellebuyck had a .921Sv% and 2.39 GAA in 60 starts in 2023-24. Then he got torched by Colorado to the tune of an .870Sv% and 5.23 GAA.
There are many factors as to why his numbers plummeted. Colorado in 2024 and Vegas in 2023 were better teams, and created many quality chances, but they also exploited Hellebuyck and the Jets’ defensive weaknesses. Every goalie, even the best, have a weakness, and in the playoffs, teams drill down deep on scouting reports to try and exploit those areas.
Hellebuyck is once again having a great season with a .925Sv% and 2.06 GAA. He and the Jets have likely learned from the previous struggles, but the Hellebuyck stats show how difficult it can be to predict goaltending from one year to the next — or even series to series or game to game.
Stuart Skinner struggled in a few games early in the series v. Vancouver and was pulled for Games 4 and 5. He returned and in his final 15 playoff starts he allowed two goals or fewer. Goaltending is not for the faint of heart, and coaches and general managers need patience and a strong belief in their goalie(s) come playoff time.
Of course, not every goal against is the goalie’s fault, but some fans and even media personnel put most of the blame on the goalie. I prefer to look at each goal separately and realize some are on the goalie, while many are due to the environment in front of him. If a team is better at limiting scoring chances down low, but are leaky on chances off the rush, you might want a goalie who is better off the rush for instance.
I’ve learned a lot speaking with Kevin Woodley weekly on my radio show for the past eight years. He’s done a great job of explaining the position, the mindset of a goalie, positional advantages and weaknesses and does so while always mentioning that it is much easier to evaluate from the couch than to be on the ice.
I don’t believe the Oilers will look to upgrade their goaltending, because it has been quite good the past three months. Stuart Skinner, even after the rough first period v. Colorado this past Friday, ranks eighth among starters in Sv% and eighth in GAA. Meanwhile Calvin Pickard has a .908Sv% and 2.38 GAA dating back to October 13th.
Are they perfect goalies? Of course not, none are, but they’ve been solid. Skinner’s detractors will say his goals saved above expected isn’t good enough. Sure, but for me, actual goals allowed is the most important stat. It is fair to suggest he needs to be more focused in first periods this season. He’s struggled early, but then he’s rebounded and played quite well in the final 40 minutes.
The rumour mill has John Gibson willing to waive his no-movement clause to come to Edmonton. Gibson is having his best season in years. He’s been very good on a bad Anaheim team with a .915Sv% and 2.69 GAA. But is he a fit for Edmonton? Would he be an upgrade?
Jan 30, 2025; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson (36) guards his net against the Calgary Flames during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
Is John Gibson a fit with the Oilers?
I asked Woodley about Gibson. He gave a great in-depth answer.
“He’s having a really good year this year. Let’s put an emphasis point on that. His numbers, on the season as a whole, are slightly better than anything that’s going on with the Oilers right now. Both him and Dostal (the other ANA goalie) are both top 20 in the NHL in adjusted numbers right now.
“And yet the caveat I would have, is that even within the good, there are some things that have plagued him statistically that continue to plague him. One is low slot line play, which is pucks across the middle of the ice below the hash marks. And that’s a statistic that for the last number of years, he is very underwater on — like, significantly. It’s actually one of his biggest negative assets. And even in a great season, that number remains problematic.“If I’m the Oilers and I’m considering this — and let’s make this clear, this is me just doing some research reacting to some of the reports, not me saying they should go make this move — I kinda wanna know where I rank on low slot line plays. Well, the Oilers have given up 55, which is 12th best in the league, but seventh best is 53. They’re in that neighborhood as a top 10 team defensively about giving up low slot line play. So, okay. We’re pretty good at defending those.“Even if that’s a weakness of this guy, can we live with it? Well, the Oilers’ goalies have given up 18 on 55. If I were to get the math and Gibson’s percentage on those plays and plug it into what the Oilers have given up, you’re looking at probably 24 goals. And now, of course, you cannot plug a goalie into team X and get an absolute, but this is the best we can do. We can take a look at very specific micro stats, how a goalie fares on them, whether a team gives them up, and then wonder are you getting any more than what you’re getting from your current guys on these things? And to get the total, you gotta basically run it across all the stats. But for these one in particular, you’re looking at six more goals roughly on the season.“Not a huge number. Now the other one that he struggled with this year that’s a little more just this year is broken plays. And interestingly enough, a lot of broken plays come off low slot line attempts. Funnel pucks through the middle of the ice, down below the hash marks, going to hit a leg, going to escape and create a scramble. Oilers are more middle of the pack. Skinner is plus two and a half (expected). He’s given up 20 on 82. Pickard’s given up nine on 36. He’s minus three expected. But between the two of them, they’re performing right around expected on those kinds of shots with 29 goals total.“Again, maybe Anaheim’s defense is worse at boxing out or clearing out or preventing the second chances that result off broken plays. But at the end of the day, when you look at what Gibson has allowed in Anaheim, you’d basically be looking at 13 more goals. So, between those two, you’re talking about 19 more goals.“So, again, it’s not just about what a guy’s good at, it is which areas are they good or weaker in. And listen, there are other things that Gibson’s going to be better at that you’re gonna get a net savings compared to what’s happening right now with your goaltenders. And I think the point is you have to take a look at all these things and try and figure this out and understand that he’s a good goalie now or if he’s got things that he’s done really well.“You have to dig into the micro stats and figure out, does he fit this team? You talk about rush chances. I didn’t pull his rush numbers, but historically, having looked at it in the past, Gibson’s a pretty good rush goaltender until you get down to that low slot line. So, if your guys are going to force a pass higher in the zone, Gibby plays with a ton of flow and feel. And he’s incredibly athletic, and he’s explosive still. And it may not always be pretty, but he makes a lot of those types of saves. So, if you’re going to continue to be a bad rush team — and, hey, actually quite quickly, Stu’s (Skinner) has improved significantly on rush chances this year compared to years past. Still not a strength, but he’s gotten a lot better at it statistically.“So, again, you need to look at all the areas. You might get a more net positive out of Gibson off the rush, but I would imagine if you’re the Oilers, you’d prefer to just clean up the rush defence as the Oilers rank 24th in high-danger chances off the rush. Maybe there is a move, or moves, you can make that help lower rush chances.”
The Oilers could acquire Gibson. Anaheim would have to retain 50% ($3.2m) for sure, and then what assets will the Ducks want in return?
There are many factors to consider in making a goalie move. Continuity and a good relationship between your goalies improve the team’s odds of success. If Gibson and Skinner are “battling” for the starting role, is that healthy? Will they succeed in that role? Will it impact the dressing room? And as Woodley outlined, do the areas of strength in Gibson’s games mesh with how the Oilers play?
It would be foolish to think a .915Sv% and whatever expected sv% or GSAx a goalie has on one team will automatically transfer to another. I can understand when Skinner has a rough game, how people panic and get frustrated, but he’s also shown he can out-duel Jake Oettinger in the Conference Final and go toe-to-toe with Sergie Bobrovsky in the Cup Final. He’s had struggles in the playoffs, but he’s shown a great ability to let it go, refocus and play well. Gibson hasn’t won a playoff game since 2017 and hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2018.
I don’t think he’s a clear upgrade. Do you think he is? Do the Oilers?
