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Don’t buy into the fear mongering about Connor McDavid’s next contract
Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid
Photo credit: Walter Tychnowicz-Imagn Images
Phil Johnson
Sep 25, 2025, 18:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 25, 2025, 15:51 EDT
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Unless you’ve been living under a rock or maybe trekking through Mongolia or something, you’ve probably noticed the chatter around Connor McDavid’s contract. The captain of the Edmonton Oilers hasn’t re-upped yet, and the internet is buzzing. 
The noise online has been relentless, to the point where most people are sick of talking about it. In the local media, it’s only been written about here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here. And by the way, if anyone in the media is reading this… Please stop asking fans what they think on X. Inevitably, some nutjob drops the worst possible take, it goes viral, and followers spiral into a frenzy. That’s the curse of the internet.
But when we get down to brass tacks, does all of this really mean anything? The short answer is no. Even the local media, for all the bluster, still has no clue what McDavid is going to do. They’re just jumping on the easiest topic to speculate about.
I expect this kind of noise from social media, there always is, but I expect better from professional journalists. 
Believe it or not, there are concrete facts that we can glean and actual substance that indicate Connor McDavid will re-sign with the Oilers. What are they, you ask? I’m so glad you asked.

No other contender can afford to sign McDavid

It doesn’t take much of a look at PuckPedia to see that any team with any hope of winning the Stanley Cup in the coming years doesn’t have anywhere close to the cap space required to sign the best player in the world. Seriously, let’s go through some of those numbers now. 
  • How about the back-to-back champs, the Florida Panthers? They’re $4.5 million over the cap already and this overage will largely be paid for by Matthew Tkachuk being on LTIR until December.
  • Vegas? Similar situation. They’re over the cap by $7.64 million. Not to mention, they just traded for and signed Mitch Marner not too long ago. They’re paying for their overage with Alex Pietrangelo’s $8.8 million contract being on LTIR because of a career-ending injury he suffered last season.
  • The Dallas Stars? $405,000 of cap space and that’s it.
  • The Colorado Avalanche? Only $1.33 million in cap space.
  • Even for all the bluster and verbal diarrhea coming out of Toronto to sign McDavid? The Leafs only have $1.92 million in cap space, and they just lost Marner over the a few months ago. Let that sink in.
  • How about the New York Rangers, the other source of much bluster and verbal diarrhea around McDavid? Only $778,000 in cap space. That’s it. 
Speaking of Toronto, do you really think McDavid doesn’t know how toxic their media machine is, and how they ran guys like Marner and Phil Kessel out of town? Or how they continue to treat Auston Matthews and John Tavares? In what universe would he look at that and say ‘Man, I need to get away from the respectful media in Edmonton and get me some of that!’ It’s not gonna happen.  
Circling back to possible McDavid destinations. How about some other playoff contenders? The St. Louis Blues have $625,000 in cap space. The LA Kings have $2.67 million. The Winnipeg Jets have $3.96 million. What about teams that are on the rise, like the New Jersey Devils? $5.21 million. Maybe the Montreal Canadiens? $4.57 million. 
I could go on, but I think you get the point.
Now, let’s toss out a conservative hypothetical. Say McDavid signs at $15M AAV. No contender is even sniffing that number. Meanwhile, the Oilers already have him built into their structure. An extra $2.5M, maybe $5M more than he makes now? Manageable. Edmonton doesn’t have to dismantle their roster to fit him in. Every other team would. That’s the difference.
Even taking into account the planned progression of the salary cap cap ceiling, it still won’t be enough for any serious contender to reasonably afford him. 
The Oilers have the edge in signing McDavid because they wouldn’t have to trade away core players just to fit him into the cap structure of the team. They may have to trade away a guy or two as years go along, but not enough to fundamentally change the makeup of the team. No other team in the NHL can say that. 
Every team would love to have him from a hockey perspective, but coming up with the cap space for him to make it happen is a whole different matter entirely. 
The fact of the matter is there are only two teams in the NHL that have enough cap space to sign McDavid on the dotted line come July 1, 2026. Those teams are the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks, who are both rebuilding. Would McDavid be up for all the losing that goes on on rebuilding teams again like he endured here early on his career during the Decade of Darkness? I doubt it.  
Now that we’ve got the cap space thing down, let’s go through some other major reasons why McDavid is going to re-sign in Edmonton. 
Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid
Nov 20, 2023; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates his goal against the Florida Panthers with center Leon Draisaitl (29) during the first period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Draisaitl Factor

No other NHL team can offer him a one-two punch like this. Some may come close, but no one can offer that except the Oilers. These are the two best players in the league, full stop.
It’s also a well known fact the two players are very good friends, and Draisaitl committed to the full eight years here last year. Both players were drafted by this club, so it’s unlikely they’d want to be separated now when they’re a top two team in the league. 
For those of you with short memories, we went through the same soap opera with Draisaitl last off-season. It took until September for him to sign his extension. 

The Lifestyle 

Don’t you think if McDavid was going to leave Edmonton he would’ve told his wife ‘Let’s hold off on opening an upscale restaurant in the city where I’m playing for now until I sort out where I’m going to sign’?
Yes, it is possible to manage an out-of-town investment, but it becomes a lot harder to do if you’re not a resident of that place. If Connor chose to play somewhere else, Lauren would be forced to constantly fly back and forth from wherever to Edmonton to check up on her business. 
The fact that she’s done this is a good sign that the couple feel like they’re a part of Edmonton and they’re invested in the community. It’s safe to assume they wouldn’t feel that way if Connor was about to sign somewhere else. I would assume they’d be checking out of the spotlight so they could mentally make a clean break if they were leaving town.  
Enough said. It’s also worth noting that the home they live in was designed by Lauren and built from scratch, it wasn’t something they bought already made. That would be a huge undertaking to do again somewhere else.   

The Quote

“I have every intention to win in Edmonton,” McDavid told reporters in Calgary last month. “That’s my only focus. Maybe next to winning a gold medal for Canada. But it’s my intention to win there.
“I’m taking my time, going through it with my family, my agent, everybody involved. We’re going through it slowly.”
There’s only one other NHL destination that offers him a better chance to win, and they’re $4.5 million over the cap. That leaves the back-to-back Stanley Cup runner-ups as the next best place to be, which is right where he is now. 
And so, in the end, for the sake of your own sanity and mental health it would be worthwhile to take a deep breath and bring it down 1000 if this is the biggest problem in life. Assume he will re-sign here, and then freak out if he doesn’t.
There’s no doubt in my mind Connor McDavid will sign with Edmonton. Bet on it.  

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