The Colorado Avalanche have been the best team in the NHL all season.  They lead the NHL with a record of 43-10-9 and sit seven points ahead of second-place Dallas with a game in hand. And they got better at the trade deadline, acquiring centers Nazem Kadri and Nicolas Roy and defenseman Brett Kulak.

They are 8-2 in their last 10 games, are riding a five-game winning streak, and they embarrassed the Oilers 9-1 in Edmonton in their first meeting of the season.

The Oilers should be highly motivated to gain some revenge after that 9-1 spanking in November. The Oilers played a sound defensive game in Vegas on Sunday, their first in weeks, and they will need to manage the puck efficiently, limit turnovers in the neutral zone and high in the offensive zone, and defend with their sticks and feet in the defensive zone. You can’t play slow and expect to compete with Colorado.

Colorado leads the NHL with 3.79 goals/game, and they’ve allowed the fewest goals against at 2.42. The Oilers can match them offensively, sitting second at 3.55 GF/GP, but they aren’t close when it comes to defending and goaltending, ranking 27th at 3.36 GA/GP.

Colorado has scored 4+ goals in 33 of their 62 games, but they’ve only allowed 4+ goals 16 times. Meanwhile, the Oilers have tallied 4+ goals in 28 games, but they’ve allowed 4+ goals 30 times. If anyone suggests the Oilers need to score more, please revoke their analyst card. Offence is not the problem in Edmonton. Limiting goals has always been the bigger issue in the past decade. Edmonton has had stretches where they are a really strong defensive team, but eventually they falter.

The Avalanche rank second in five-on-five high dangers chances off the rush, but they are first in mid% and all other types combined. They are also first in the established O-zone offence. They possess the puck very well. The only weak part of their offence is their power play, which ranks 31st at 15.8 per cent. And it isn’t due to bad luck. They simply don’t generate many good looks, ranking 27th in high danger expected goals. You wonder how dominant they would be if their powerplay had a pulse, considering they’ve had the fifth most PP opportunities at 203.

Edmonton has the most dominant power play in the NHL, and they are on pace to break their record of 32.4 per cent, which they set in 2023. The Oilers’ power play is 32.8 per cent with 57 goals on 174 opportunities. Colorado has 32 goals on 203 chances. While the Avalanche struggles on the man advantage, they are very good on the penalty kill, where they rank third at 83.1 per cent. The Oilers’ PK was 10th best in the NHL through 53 games, but a horrific five-game stretch where they allowed nine goals on 14 kills saw them plummet down the rankings. They now sit 24th at 77.4 per cent. The Oilers have been shorthanded 177 times, while Colorado has been down a man 178 times. Edmonton has allowed 10 more goals.

Statistically, the Avalanche are the most difficult matchup the Oilers will face this season. Colorado added Kadri, Roy and Kulak while the Oilers added Connor Murphy, Jason Dickinson and Colton Dach. The Oilers filled some glaring weaknesses, while the Avalanche simply got deeper.

The Oilers won both games in Colorado last season, outscoring the Avalanche 4-3 and 4-1, and they outshot them 28-25 and 32-28. They can win in Colorado, but the Oilers must avoid defensive lapses if they want to win consecutive games for the first time since January 29th.

— I’m a firm believer that the Oilers are a better team the more minutes Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl run their own lines. When you play them together, they are on the ice for fewer combined minutes, thus lowering the stress level of the opposition. I understand if they play the odd shift together coming out of a penalty kill, or in the final 10 minutes of a game when the team is trailing, but outside of those situations, Kris Knoblauch should avoid the temptation to play them together.

What is interesting is that he has actually played them less time together this season than last year. Here is a comparison from last season to this season at five-on-five.

Last season, in the 62 games they dressed together, they played 406 minutes at five-on-five, while in 61 games this season, they’ve logged 314 minutes together. The issue this season is that they are scoring fewer goals than last year while allowing more goals against. It is a bad combination. The good news is that while playing apart this year, they are scoring at higher rates than they did last season, so it would be wise to keep them apart. It allows the Oilers to have one of their superstars on the ice more often at five-on-five. And if you noticed, the lowest GA/60 this year is when neither is on the ice. However, when they are off the ice, the opposition isn’t playing their best players, so in theory, the GA/60 should be lower.

— Since the Olympic break, the Oilers’ depth players have played much better. With McDavid and Draisaitl off the ice, Edmonton has outscored opponents 6-5 in 127 minutes. In 173 with one or both of McDrai on the ice, the Oilers are 13-13 at five-on-five. The bottom two lines have been much more engaged out of the break, which should allow Knoblauch to play them a few minutes more, but also keep McDavid and Draisaitl separate.

— McDavid is on an 18-game road point streak. The only players in the last 40 years with a longer road streak include: Wayne Gretzky (29 GP in 1986-87), Pat LaFontaine (22 GP in 1989-90), Gretzky (22 GP in 1985-86), Mario Lemieux (21 GP in 1989-90) and Patrick Kane (19 GP in 2018-19). 

— McDavid notched his 794th assist in his 776th game in Vegas on Sunday and passed Guy Lafleur (1,126 GP) for 37th all-time. McDavid needs four assists to pass Jari Kurri, and with six assists, McDavid will be the 36th player to reach 800 career apples. McDavid also tallied the 217th multi-assist game of his career in Vegas, and in doing so, he passed Mr. Hockey (Gordie Howe) for the 14th most all-time. Wild.

— Leon Draisaitl has 12 points in his last five games, and he scored his 433rd goal in Vegas and moved past former Oiler, Vincent Damphousse, for 82nd place on the all-time goal scoring list. He also moved ahead of McDavid for first place on the Oilers’ all-time list for game-winning goals with 75. He and McDavid will be battling for that record for the foreseeable future.

— The playoff race in the Western Conference becomes more intense by the day. Los Angeles won last night to move within one point of eighth-place Seattle.

Seven teams are separated by seven points as they battle for five playoff spots. The Oilers are three back of first-place Anaheim, but also only four points out of 10th place. I don’t have them in the photo, but the Winnipeg Jets are slowly creeping back into the race. They are five points behind Seattle, and while their odds are lower, I wouldn’t count out the Jets just yet.

— Here’s a look at the March schedule for the seven teams. All seven are in action tonight.

The games in BOLD are against a team currently in the playoffs, or just outside looking in, like San Jose and LA. And the teams have a lot of games against playoff opponents this month.

Edmonton plays eight of their 11 v. those teams, while Utah has eight of their 10, San Jose plays seven of 11, Vegas and Seattle play six of 11, while Anaheim and LA play five of 11 games versus teams in the race.

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Roslovic
Savoie – Dickinson – Kapanen
Dach – Samanski – Frederic

Ekholm – Bouchard
Walman – Murphy
Nurse – Emberson

Ingram

Edmonton will go with the same lineup as Sunday in Vegas. Adam Henrique is still out after blocking a shot. Mattias Ekholm was battling an illness on Sunday and played just over 14 minutes. He is expected to play more tonight. I’d like to see the fourth line get around 9-10 minutes. Because none of them kill penalties or are on the power play, it is difficult to play them more. The Oilers average the second most five-on-five minutes/game as a team at 49:54. You can’t expect the fourth line to play 12 minutes at five-on-five, because that means the first and second lines are playing 13 each, while the third line plays 12. That is unrealistic, but if the fourth line is going, like they have been recently, getting them 9-10 minutes is plausible.

Necas – MacKinnon – Kadri
Colton – Nelson – Nichushkin
Kelly – Roy – Brindley
Bardakov – Drury – Kiviranta

Toews – Makar
Manson – Burns
Kulak – Malinski

Blackwood

Gabriel Landeskog will miss his second straight game, while Artturi Lehkonen will sit out his third in a row. MacKenzie Blackwood allowed four goals in 11 shots last Friday against Dallas before getting pulled. It was the first time this season he didn’t finish a game he started. Blackwood had a very strong .924Sv% and 2.07 GAA in his first 14 starts up until New Year’s Eve. Then he missed a few weeks, and since returning on January 16th, he’s made 11 starts and has posted an .892Sv% and 2.75 GAA. He hasn’t been as sharp since returning.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Avs and Oilers rank first and second in 20-22 mph bursts as a team. They play up to their speed tonight in an exciting game that the Avs win 4-3.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid extends his road streak to 19 games.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Trent Frederic scores in back-to-back games for the first time as an Oiler.