The Oilers don’t have many job openings. I outlined the battle for the fourth-line centre spot earlier this week, as it is likely the only potential roster spot battle among forwards. The lack of job openings reflects how good the Oilers forward group is, and the most intriguing question heading into the season is what will the top two lines look like.
Kris Knoblauch has decided to keep his top line from last season intact. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman were together in the first session, and on Tuesday, after the Oilers golf tournament, Knoblauch stated he wanted to keep them together. “They were exceptional last season, so my plan is to start with them,” said Knoblauch. “We’ve talked about the need to get Leon (Draisaitl) some wingers, and we did that by adding (Jeff) Skinner and (Viktor) Arvidsson, so we have them as a unit.”
Knoblauch quickly added that the opening day plan can change, maybe early in the season or later, but from my chair, it is the right decision to start with those two lines.
With the addition of Jeff Skinner, the Oilers now have four of the top-20 most productive 5×5 scorers over the past three seasons. That isn’t a small sample size, and if the goal is to give Draisaitl a more consistent producing winger at 5×5, then sliding Skinner on his left wing is ideal.
McDavid (189), Draisaitl (160), Hyman (136) and Skinner (135) have been excellent producing points 5×5 the past three seasons, and having a duo on each line, in theory, should give the Oilers an excellent 1-2 punch.
The Oilers finished third in 5×5 scoring with 193 goals last season despite a slower goal-scoring campaign from Draisaitl with 15. He averaged 23 goals the previous two seasons, but Draisaitl was still 8th in 5×5 points with 55, slightly higher than the 53 points he averaged the last two years. The suggestion he had a bad season 5×5 is a tad overblown in my view. In his 790 minutes at 5×5 without McDavid Draisaitl outscored the opposition 38-28. In 466 minutes with McDavid, they outscored opponents 38-21.
When Draisaitl and McDavid played together they scored at a 4.89 G/60 rate. Which is elite. McDavid had a 4.07 GF/60 away from Draisaitl, and much of that was with Hyman. In 626 minutes together and without Draisaitl they scored at a 4.7 GF/60 pace. They are a great duo and should spend the majority of their 5×5 time together.
For most of his time in Edmonton, Draisaitl hasn’t been a consistent, productive winger. Draisaitl, RNH, and Kailer Yamamoto had a great two-month streak in 2020 when Draisaitl won the Hart trophy, but it was a hot streak and has never been repeated.
In the past three seasons, Draisaitl has logged 3811 minutes at 5×5. He’s played 1228 with McDavid, which is 32% of his total 5×5 time on ice. McDavid has spent 2128 with Hyman (55% of his TOI). In the past three years, Nathan MacKinnon played 76.7% of his 5×5 time (2733 of 360 minutes) with Mikko Rantanen. Auston Matthews played 56% of his time with Mitch Marner.
McDavid, MacKinnon and Matthews have spent considerable time with a very productive winger. Draisaitl hasn’t had the luxury, but he could this season with the addition of Jeff Skinner.
Skinner has always been productive at 5×5. He’s scored 27 goals twice at 5×5, had 25 goals in 2022 and 2023, and he’s produced the 20th most points in the NHL at 5×5 the past three seasons. In that time he played 1983 minutes with Tage Thompson, which was 63.7% of his total TOI. I believe both benefitted from playing with each other, and I expect the same with Skinner and Draisaitl.
I know there had been some wondering if Knoblauch would play Skinner with McDavid and Hyman because he’s a very good outside shooter. It makes sense, but for me, it makes more sense to have two dangerous duos together. The Oilers were actually quite dominant as a team 5×5 last year.
They led the NHL with 2190 shots on goal 5×5 and allowed the sixth-fewest shots with 1783. Only Carolina (56.2) had a better SF% than the Oilers 55.12SF%. Edmonton finished third in goals scored with 193 and were eighth in goals against at 153. Their +40 ranking was fourth best in the league.
Could they improve those numbers if Draisaitl and Skinner, along with Arvidsson find some chemistry? It is very possible.
Draisaitl is an elite talent. Skinner has been ultra-productive at 5×5 his entire career, and he’s done so having never played with a centre as talented as Draisaitl. Thompson is a very good player, but he’s not Draisaitl. In 2017 when Skinner scored 27 goals at 5×5 his centre was Viktor Rask and Lee Stempniuk was his main right winger. In 2019 he played with a young Jack Eichel and also scored 27 goals. The potential for Skinner and Draisaitl the be productive is very high.
I hope Knoblauch gives them an extended look together because having two dominant lines 5×5 could make the 2024-25 Edmonton Oilers even more dangerous than before and they could become only the 10th team in the salary cap era to score 20o+ goals at 5×5.
