Few players have been as hot to start the 2024-25 season as Leon Draisiatl.
He sits tied for the lead league in goals, with a dozen and tied for eighth in the league in points, putting up 20 through the Oilers first 16 games. From an offensive standpoint, it’s been one of the best starts in his career, with only the starts of the 2019-20 season and 2021-22 season seeing him score more goals.
The hulking forward is embracing his strong start to the season, all the while keeping himself humble in knowing how quickly things can change.
“You got to be careful with things like that, because this league humbles you so god damn quick,” he said after Tuesday’s win over the Islanders when asked if he feels like he’s in a groove to start the year. “It’s scary. I’ve been around long enough to understand there’s phases of it going well and it going ice cold.
“I feel good, I feel like I’m playing well, I’m creating chances — obviously they’re going in right now — but I’m very well aware that can change in a hurry. I’m just going to continue to chip away at it.”
What adds to his impressive offensive start is that he’s putting up these points largely at even strength, with only two goals and two assists coming with the man advantage. Draisaitl’s detractors have long said that he was a “power play merchant,” but he’s showing he can flip that script early on this season.
The conversation around Draisaitl’s game goes well beyond just his offensive chops. As he has gotten older, understanding more and more about what it takes to not only succeed as an individual but as a team, Draisaitl’s 200-foot game has taken a significant step forward.
Draisaitl’s individual rates are all nothing short of excellent. Compared to league average rates over the last five years, which all rate and percentage statistics included in this player card are graded against, he’s in the upper echelon.
The offensive numbers obviously pop. Few players in the game can drive play offensively like Draisaitl does, with elite numbers in terms of shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals and actual goals. But what stands out is how incredible he’s been defensively this season for the Oilers.
With him on the ice at even strength this season, the Oilers’ control allow among the fewest rates of shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals against, all among the best in the entire NHL.. This hasn’t always been the case, as the defensive side of the game has long been one that’s caused issues with him on the ice. That’s no longer the case.
According to Hockey Viz, Draisaitl’s even-strength defensive impacts this season are three percent greater than league average. In 2023-24, it was one percent worse than league average. In 2022-23, it was four percent worse. In 2021-22, it was 10 percent worse. In 2020-21, it was nine percent worse. In 2019-20, it was eight percent worse. You catch my drift.
I was initially going to to say “Well, it’s not to say that Draisaitl has suddenly become prime Patrice Bergeron,” because that’s crazy to think, right? Well yes, of course it would… right?
Before taking one step further, it’s critical to mention the sample size of Draisaitl’s 2024-25 season is incredibly small. We’re talking about 16 games here, so there’s lots of room for his numbers to change, but there’s reason to believe — based on some of the numbers the last 10 players who have won a Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward had — that Draisaitl could be considered an early contender for this year’s award.
His rates of suppressing shot attempts, goals, scoring chances, high danger scoring chances and high danger goals are all well in line with previous Selke winners, though Draisaitl’s expected goals against numbers are the worst of the bunch, but still close enough to the numbers that Ryan O’Reilly and Anze Kopitar had when they won the Selke in 2019 and 2019, respectively.
To a certain extent, whether Draisaitl wins or loses the Selke Trophy this year is a fairly moot point because there’s a trophy he undoubtedly wants more: a Stanley Cup.
If Draisaitl is able to maintain strong defensive numbers like these, while still maintaining his strong scoring pace, it will be a massive boon to their chances.
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist, making up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.
