This is probably the most obvious (and perhaps even the most likely) conversation to have, but we’re going to have it anyway (well, at least I’m gonna type the words and it’s up to you to read them) but here’s why the Oilers captain is going to walk away with the Art Ross Trophy in Vegas in June.

Though history tells us that the NHL and scoring existed prior to the 2014-15 season, the modern concept of offensive as we know it truly began when Connor McDavid stepped onto the ice in October of 2014. So, here are the highest-scoring players– all those that have eclipsed 300 points– in the NHL from the 2015-’16 season through the 2018-’19 campaign.

I’m a little surprised to see Kane at the top of the list, but McDavid missed almost half of his rookie season, in which he was on pace for ~87pts over 82 games. Which, had he played that full season, would put him at ~410pts, being the only player to surpass 400 points in four seasons.

So clearly the compelling stat here is the points-per-game. Kucherov is a lot closer than I would’ve thought, with Kane and Crosby holding decent rates too. But Malkin and Stamkos are there lurking around with quietly good rates too.

But if we’re talking about racking up points, where’s the best place for an elite scorer to do that? Well, the powerplay of course!

So, let’s take a look at how the top scorers performed on the powerplay last season.

(players included are only those with reasonable chances of reasonably reaching, or surpassing, the 100-point mark).

Kucherov (and Stamkos and Point for that matter) is poised to play on another offensive juggernaut in Tampa Bay, playing on an elite powerplay where he should be able to pick up a tonne of points. But, it should be noted that only the @Pittsburgh Penguins (and the @Washington Capitals somewhat) have been the most consistent team in terms of finishing in the top five for team powerplay percentage over the past five seasons. And even then, they’ve only finished in the top three in two consecutive seasons, and no other team has had more. The Lightning finished first last season and third in 2017-’18, so there is a possibility for a slight drop-off.

All that’s to say, Connor’s a most consistent 5v5 scorer, and it’s more likely for powerplay scoring to regress a bit than for 5v5 scoring to increase, so there’s a reasonable chance that the point gap between Connor and Kucherov will shrink just based on the likelihood that the Lighting powerplay will dip a bit, and the Oilers’ might even increase slightly.

This is really going to be a battle between Connor and Kucherov, with maybe Kane as a dark horse, and Malkin as an even darker horse (but with his nemesis Kessel exiled from the team, he could be a superstar re-born). There’s a worry that with Tippett behind the bench, there will be a bigger commitment to defensive responsibility, top to bottom on the 2019-20 Oilers roster. But, this is Connor McDavid, who owns the ice playing at 5v5 and could very well be playing on a better all-around Oilers squad in 2019-20.

There is the path to the 2020 Art Ross Trophy for Connor McDavid.

Thoughts? The comments section is yours!