And then there were five…

The Edmonton Oilers’ playoff position appears all but official at this point, and now, it’s more or less a matter of where they’re seeded for the postseason dance. They enter Tuesday night’s game against the Utah Mammoth.

Despite playing a team from the Central Division, tonight could have a big impact on the Pacific Division’s final standings. The Anaheim Ducks, with whom the Oilers are tied for first in the division, square up with the Nashville Predators. The Vegas Golden Knights, 3-0 since hiring John Tortorella and one point back of the Oilers, face the tanking Vancouver Canucks, who will start Nikita Tolopilo for his third straight game.

While the Oilers can hope for help from the Predators and Canucks, Edmonton needs to take care of its own business. 6-3 in their last nine games without Leon Draisaitl, the team will be without Zach Hyman for all three games this week. No matter how hot the top line with Connor McDavid, Matt Savoie and Vasily Podkolzin has been, outscoring the opposition 3-2, dominating in shots 44-26.

Hyman’s been a force this year, despite missing 19 games to start the season, and while he has been dealing with some kind of injury, which led to him getting shut down for this week, had still scored four goals and seven points in his last nine games. McDavid has six goals and 15 points in that stretch, Savoie five goals and seven points, and then there’s Hyman. Below him: Jack Roslovic, with three goals and six points, Adam Henrique, with a goal and four points, and Podkolzin with two goals and four points.

Max Jones has a pair of goals, but one player who’s cooled off as of late is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, with one goal and three points in his last 10 games. He’s been a black hole away from McDavid this season, with both offensive and defensive metrics free-falling without the Oilers captain at five-on-five. That’s concerning for an Oilers team that needs to be all hands on deck.

The good news is that the Oilers as a whole are trending in the right direction ahead of the playoffs.

“We’ve definitely taken steps in the right direction and playing more as a team,” said Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. “Everybody has the same mindset and the same kind of attitude about things out there. So obviously, we got some work to do here in the next five to really solidify where we’re at, but I think it’s really coming together.”

The Oilers will get some reinforcements, as Colton Dach is set to make his return to the lineup. Acquired alongside Jason Dickinson from the Chicago Blackhawks ahead of the trade deadline, he had played in just three games before being injured, and has been out of the lineup for nearly a month. It was hard to glean too much from his 16 total minutes of ice-time, but he was clearly a physcial presence, laying six hits, and didn’t shy from shooting the puck. The problem was that none of his seven attempts hit the net.

With all hope, he’ll bring some more juice to a bottom-six that has had lots of it as of late.

Prior to the Olympics, the Oilers were scoring a meagre 1.48 goals for per hour and generating 2.18 expecteed goals for per hour without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice at five-on-five. It’s climbed to 2.09 goals for and 2.26 expected goals for. And instead of a 34.8 per cent goal share, it’s climbed to a 46.2 per cent goal share.

It’s not a huge jump by any means, but it’s a trend in the right direction. Dach, much like the rest of the bottom-six, need to find ways to contribute offence in the Oilers’ final five games of the regular season.

Podkolzin – McDavid – Savoie
Kapanen – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic
Dach – Dickinson – Frederic
Jones – Henrique – Lazar

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Emberson

Jarry

Dach returns and Tristan Jarry gets the start between the pipes. It marks his third start between the pipes since the Oilers declared Connor Ingram the starter, and Jarry has responded well. He secured a win on March 24 against the Mammoth, allowing two goals against on 18 shots, and another win in Oilers 3-1 win over the Blackhawks on April 2. Both earned him quality starts.

Keller – Schmaltz – Crouse
Yamamoto – Cooley – Guenther
Peterka – Kerfoot – Carcone
O’Brien – Stenlund – Tanev

Sergachev – Weegar
Schmidt – Marino
Cole – Durzi

Vejmelka

Mackenzie Weegar missed Saturday’s game and is considered day-to-day, though the Mammoth projected lineup has him returning to his spot alongside Mikhail Sergachev. He joined Utah ahead of the deadline and has been solid, but unspectacular, with the team breaking even in goals 10-10 with him on the ice at five-on-five. The Mammoth remain without Barrett Hayton and Jack McBain, who are week-to-week with upper and lower body injuries.

Game day prediction: The Oilers continue to dominate against Karel Vejmelka, firing five past him in a 5-2 win.

Obvious game day prediction: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has three goals and seven points in five games against the Mammoth. He breaks an eight-game goalless drought, scoring his first since March 17.

No-so-obvious game day prediction: Tristan Jarry posts his second straight quality start.

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s managing editor, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the Daily Faceoff DFS Hockey Report. He can be followed on X at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.