A spicy debate erupted earlier this week on Oilersnation Everyday when we were talking about whether the Oilers’ offensive struggles are a result of just bad luck or if it’s a product of the team not being good enough at finishing off their chances.
The truth does lay somewhere in the middle here, but if you’re sitting here and thinking that the Oilers have suddenly forgotten how to score and they won’t recover, you’re absolutely out to lunch.
Also, the idea that the Oilers aren’t doing a good enough job of generating chances is also false. Here’s where they rank right now in some key statistical numbers.
- 5v5 shot attempts/60 = 68.63 (2nd)
- 5v5 shots/60 = 33.67 (2nd)
- 5v5 scoring chances/60 = 33.58 (2nd)
- 5v5 expected goals/60 = 3.04 (5th)
*All stats via Natural Stat-Trick
Even though they rank right up near the top of the league in all of those numbers, they sit 25th in actual goals scored/60 with 1.93. That is because they are 30th in 5v5 SH% at 5.74. That won’t stay that way for very long.
This forward group is littered with players who have consistently scored 20+ goals per season throughout their careers, and they haven’t suddenly forgotten how to convert scoring chances.
Here’s where they ranked last season in those same areas:
5v5 shot attempts/60 = 64.78 (4th)
5v5 shots/60 = 32.87 (2nd)
5v5 scoring chances/60 = 32.36 (1st)
5v5 expected goals/60 = 3.2 (1st)
With those numbers, they managed to score the 4th most goals in the league at 5v5 with 2.9 and their shooting percentage was 8.81, 14th highest in the league.
So when you compare the two, right now the Oilers are attempting more shots, getting more shots on net and getting more scoring chances than they did last year, but their scoring basically one goal per 60 minutes less than they were last season.
That will not continue all season.
Every team will go through these sort of ebbs and flows throughout the year and one thing that is making the Oilers’ lack of scoring at 5v5 stand out even more is the fact that their special teams has been hot garbage.
fTheir penalty kill is off to a putrid start and their once dominant power play is ice cold, and it was even when Connor McDavid was in the lineup. That won’t last forever. This power play is too damn talented to be this unproductive and I refuse to believe that the rest of the NHL has just magically figured them out to the point where they’re a bottom ten power play.
Yes, they need to be better. Evan Bouchard needs to get more pucks through to the net and the forwards need to start coming up with some fresh looks, and maybe even try to attack with a bit more urgency.
However they do it, the Oilers’ power play will improve and right now, I really believe it’s just a matter of time before the 5v5 offence goes on a heater to make up for this prolonged stretch where they’ve struggled to convert on their chances.
If both of those areas start positively regressing to the mean at the same time, then look out, because this Oilers team will go on a long, long winning streak and they won’t be winning games 3-1. They’ll start blowing teams out.
Right now, it’s hard to stay patient because we as a collective watch every game so closely and ride all the ups and downs of the rollercoaster that is an NHL regular season, but things are about to get really fun in Edmonton. It’s just a matter of time.
It also would not surprise me at all if it started tonight as the team welcomes back their Captain to the lineup for a massive matchup against the Vegas Golden Knights, who are off to a strong start this season but have really struggled in road games. They are 0-3-1 on the road this season and have allowed 14 5v5 goals against in just four games away from Vegas this season.
Combine that with the fact that Edmonton’s offense is traditionally much better at home than on the road and the fact that they are due to go on a shooting percentage heater at some point here and I think tonight could actually be a busy night for the person who operates the Rogers Place goal horn.
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