It’s that time of year when the final two teams battle it out for Lord Stanley’s Mug, and 30 others dive deep into the off-season.

The first order of business for many teams will be determining which of their pending restricted and unrestricted free agents they could consider returning. In the case of the Edmonton Oilers, they have seven restricted and 12 unrestricted free agents to sign, with roughly $14.5 million in cap space.

Let’s dive into what the contract prognosticators over at AFP Analytics think some of the key Oilers free agents will sign for, and whether those contracts are realistic for the team.

Projected term: Four years
Projected cap hit: $5,046,971

Dickinson has the largest projected cap hit of any of the Oilers’ free agents, according to AFP Analytics. It’s a hefty price tag and would be a raise from the $4.25 million the 30-year-old made on his most recent contract. There isn’t much offence to Dickinson’s game, averaging 0.27 points per game, a 22-point pace across an 82-game season, but there are few better defensive centres in the game. He’s a guy the Oilers would surely want back, but a bidding war could easily price them out of him.

Likelihood of re-signing: 50 per cent

Projected term: Three years
Projected cap hit: $4,696,640

Roslovic is a curious case, as this number was his reported price range last year in free agency when he went unsigned, having to ink a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Oilers. He paid it off in spades, scoring 21 goals and 36 points in 69 games, but his wilting in the playoffs left a sour taste in the mouth of many. For that reason, I’m uncertain if a team would be willing to give him that money, and the Oilers would be wise to wait to see if the market cools on him.

Likelihood of re-signing: 20 per cent

Projected term: Two years
Projected cap hit: $3,610,100

This deal is a no-brainer. Signed, sealed, delivered. Murphy was a tremendous addition for the Oilers at the deadline, helping stabalize Darnell Nurse down the stretch, and into the post-season. There was some offence that popped in Murphy’s game, too, which was a nice surprise.

Likelihood of re-signing: 100 per cent

Projected term: Three years
Projected cap hit: $3,109,600

Kapanen’s game had some big warts during the regular season, though he also missed half the year with injury, but he proved he can turn it on when the games matter most. He led the Oilers in goals (four) and was third in points (six). He’s an effective middle-six player who’s shown he can play with Leon Draisaitl, so at this price point, I’d be fine with them bringing him back.

Likelihood of re-signing: 80 per cent

Projected term: Two years
Projected cap hit: $2,997,800

The price, and the term, is right. Ingram was a great story for the Oilers and was their defacto No. 1 down the stretch run and into the playoffs. The biggest question here is whether the team is looking at other options, but I think it’s better than a coin-flip odds that he’s back.

Likelihood of re-signing: 60 per cent

Projected term: Two years
Projected cap hit: $2,286,266

A restricted free agent, there’s no reason for the Oilers to lose out on Stastney. He earned $825,000 on his latest deal, and Edmonton would surely like to keep the deal around $1 million.

Likelihood of re-signing: 25 per cent

Projected term: One year
Projected cap hit: $2,159,040

Sail on, Adam Henrique. After two-and-a-half seasons with the Oilers, his time is likely coming to an end. He struggled this season, and with the emergence of Josh Samanski, I don’t see a world where Henrique returns.

Likelihood of re-signing: 0 per cent

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s managing editor, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the Daily Faceoff DFS Hockey Report. He can be followed on X at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.