Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman have been fixtures in the Edmonton Oilers’ top six for most of the McDavid era. But as they enter their mid-30s, they’ll need to hand over the keys to a new generation sooner or later.

Edmonton’s succession plan has already been set in motion, with Vasily Podkolzin and Matt Savoie working their way into the top six last season. Both were former top 10 picks in other organizations, and both are on track to be impactful Oilers for a long time.

Considering the success they’ve had, it may be wise for Edmonton to continue buying low on young players to help extend their Cup window. One guy they should have their eye on is Kent Johnson.

The Columbus Blue Jackets drafted Johnson fifth overall in 2021, coming off his impressive season with the University of Michigan, where he produced over a point per game. In his first NHL season, Johnson lived up to the hype. The BC native notched 16 goals and 40 points as a rookie, placing fifth in Calder Trophy voting. Since then, however, his development hasn’t progressed as the Blue Jackets had hoped.

In his sophomore campaign, Johnson only managed 16 points in 42 games. But he bounced back in a big way in year three, hitting the 20-goal mark for the first time and a career high of 56 points. At age 22, he had become a legit top-six forward. Or so it appeared.

Johnson’s 2025-26 season got off to a nightmare start. He produced just five points in his first 25 games and finished the month of November a minus-12. Less than two months later, the Blue Jackets fired head coach Dean Evason and replaced him with Rick Bowness. Johnson had a good start under his new coach, putting up six points in his first nine games after the change. But his resurgence proved to be short-lived. By the end of the season, his time on ice per game dropped to 11:09 at five-on-five, and he even got healthy scratched a few times.

Johnson’s inconsistency and lack of physicality have put him in the doghouse with his head coaches early in his career. He gets bumped off the puck a lot, and his slight 6-foot, 170-pound frame doesn’t help him win physical battles. Based on his deployment, the Blue Jackets organization appears to be souring on him, just as the Canucks did with Podkolzin two years ago. Should the Oilers buy low?

As a former top-five draft pick, Johnson is skilled enough and deceptive enough to create offence at the NHL level. He produced at a top-six rate in back-to-back seasons, with 1.95 points per hour in 2023-24 and 2.43 the following year. Both of those rates would’ve placed him in the top three among Oilers forwards at five-on-five this past season.

This year, his production dipped to 1.27 points per hour, which is firmly a bottom-six rate. Why did it drop? Well, it turns out that shooting percentage explains a significant portion of it. In Johnson’s career year, he shot 20.4 per cent at five-on-five, which dropped to 5.6 this season. His on-ice shooting percentage also dropped from 13.2 per cent to 8.3. Neither one of those extremes are sustainable in my eyes. He’s far too skilled to shoot five per cent every year, and not nearly elite enough to reach the 20’s consistently. In most years, he should land somewhere near the middle.

When you take the full sample size, Johnson has produced 1.89 points per hour at five-on-five over the last three seasons. If he can maintain that against a higher quality of competition, he would be one of Edmonton’s most productive forwards. Additionally, his defensive impact ranked seven per cent above league average last season, according to HockeyViz, suggesting he may be able to contribute at both ends of the ice, even if his defensive details aren’t fully developed yet.

Stylistically, Johnson is more of a rush-based attacker. Despite his slow skating speed, he consistently ranks well in transition metrics like zone entries, rush shots and rush shot assists. He loves to forecheck, too, but not in an overly physical way. He ranked in the 92nd percentile for forecheck involvement and only the 10th percentile for hits, according to All Three Zones. And that’s where the trouble begins with Johnson: physical play.

While Johnson possesses enough skill to be a top-six forward, he lacks any shred of physicality. Not every player has to hit; in fact, many players are far better off staying out of the trenches. But at the NHL level, you still need to be able to win board battles and hold your own when called upon. That’s where Johnson struggles. His lack of strength and speed limits what he can do when he has the puck on his stick in the offensive zone. He must rely on his deception and off-puck movement to create.

If Johnson can bulk up and add the strength to win more battles, he might have another gear to reach. But if not, it’ll be difficult for him to be the difference-maker scouts projected him to be when he was a top prospect.

McDavid and Draisaitl have both enjoyed success alongside players who excel at retrieving pucks. While Johnson isn’t a physical player, his strong forechecking involvement suggests he has the motor to complement Edmonton’s stars. Playing with the best players in the world might be exactly what he needs to unlock new dimensions to his game. It’s not a guarantee, though.

His lack of size, physicality or penalty killing experience probably makes him more boom or bust in the eyes of NHL head coaches. And that makes the acquisition a little dicier.

Ultimately, whether Johnson’s upside is worth the risk depends on the acquisition cost. I wouldn’t deal a first-round pick to acquire him. That’s far too risky to move without a more proven return. But if young forwards like Podkolzin, Trevor Zegras, and Yegor Chinakhov have taught us anything recently, it’s that if the Blue Jackets are willing to part ways with him for pennies on the dollar, it’s worth making a call.

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