In July 2021, when Ken Holland and the Edmonton Oilers signed Zach Hyman, no one would’ve predicted it would be as successful as it has turned out to be.

Many criticized the deal — largely out-of-market — saying it was an overpay, had too much term, and could become an anchor in the final years of the contract. Instead, the seven-year, $5.5 million per year deal has turned into a steal for Edmonton. Hyman has become the greatest free-agent signing in the history of the franchise.

Throughout Hyman’s tenure, he has provided outstanding results, primarily on Connor McDavid’s right wing and as the net-front man on the power play. In his five years, he has scored 175 goals and 310 points in 366 games during the regular season. In the playoffs, his goal-scoring clip has only risen, contributing 37 goals and 62 points in 74 games while hitting everything that moves. He has a 50-goal season, two 30-goal seasons, and two 20-goal seasons with the club, including 31 goals in 58 games last season. And as Jason Gregor wrote earlier this week, he is showing no signs of slowing down.

With Hyman eligible for an extension on July 1, 2027, it is time to take a look at what that new contract may look like. Hyman will be 36 when that new deal kicks in.

Taking a look at contracts signed by point-producing top-six wingers in the last few years, and factoring in the imminent dramatic rise of the salary cap, a few examples stick out.

Jordan Eberle
Term: Two years, $11 million ($5.5 million cap hit)

The 36-year-old former Oilers winger is entering the first season of a newly signed extension that bumps him up from $4.75 million per year, giving him a 16 per cent raise on another two-year deal. This term and approximate raise is exactly what Edmonton should be looking for with Hyman, although closer to a 20-25% raise may be more reasonable due to the increasing cap. That would put him in the range of around $6.5m per year on his next deal, and while by that time Hyman will have likely lost a step, the surging salary cap should make something like this a deal that is fair for both parties. Because of this dramatic surge, a cap hit in the six-millions may be closer to what can be expected if the term ends up being three-years.

Anze Kopitar
Term: Two years, $14 million ($7 million cap hit)

Signed in July of 2023, the final contract of Kopitar’s career began in his age-36 season. In the three years leading up to this deal, Kopitar’s points per game of 0.83 is almost identical to Hyman, who played at a 0.82 clip in his most recent three seasons.

Even though this contract was signed three years ago when the salary cap was at the tail end of its “flat” era and had not risen in years, it represents a close comparison on a short-term deal for a forward beloved by his franchise looking to conclude his career.

Patrick Kane
Term: Two years, $16 million ($8 million cap hit)

Over the last three seasons, these right-wingers have also produced at a very similar clip as Kane has scored at a 0.86 PPG. Chicago, which has had plenty of cap space for years, went and used almost the rest of what they had available when they brought back Kane, and even though he is about to turn 38, this deal could be very solid for them. It may also be the closest example of what a Hyman extension resembles.

Hyman’s current contract reflects 6.75 per cent of the Oilers’ cap usage. The current cap stands at $104 million, and by the time the 2028-29 season rolls around, that will be as low as $113.5 million and could be as high as $123 million. If Hyman were to sign an extension for $8 million per year, that would represent a 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent share of the team’s cap usage.

With how much inflation has occurred in relation to NHL contracts over the last several months, it is possible that Hyman could and would be justified in demanding more than these comparable deals. Especially if his play and production don’t take a significant dip. However, factoring in the major rise of the salary cap, related contracts, his appreciation for the city and team and vice versa, a three-year deal in the neighbourhood of $6 million to $6.5 million per year, or a two-year deal in the neighbourhood of $7.5 million to $8 million per year would be fair for both parties.

Toronto is calling — and this isn’t your average hockey trip.

The first 2026/27 Nation Vacation presented by JetSet Parking is here, and we’re taking over Toronto for one hell of a weekend.

A hockey trip is good. A Nation Vacation is better.