After getting pantsed 8-3 by the Dallas Stars in what was the second blowout on home ice in their last three games, the Oilers roll into Seattle for a matinee that feels uncomfortably important at this stage of the season. At 10-10-5, the boys are somehow still hovering around .500 despite giving up 93 goals in 25 games, bleeding chances left and right, and finding new and creative ways to frustrate every human being who has ever spent time caring about this franchise. The Kraken aren’t exactly world beaters at 11-6-6, but they did quite handily take care of Edmonton in the first matchup of the season. For a team that’s quickly running through their nine lives, this one feels less like a regular season game in November and more like a “figure it out now or watch the season slide down the toilet” situation.

What makes this afternoon trickier than it already would have been is that the Oilers’ lineup is basically held together with tape and best wishes. Jack Roslovic is out for weeks after blocking a shot. Kasperi Kapanen re-injured himself at practice and is out for weeks. Jake Walman might return next week if the hockey gods ever decide to cut this team a break. Needless to say, the team that feels like there are holes everywhere has a few more to throw on the pile. But there is a bright side it’s that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins draws back in after battling a concussion, and they desperately need him with everyone else seemingly dropping like flies. When your depth chart starts having guys moving up spots where they don’t belong, getting Nuge back is a gift. Unfortunately, timely presents don’t fix the problems that keep showing up on a nightly basis, and the numbers are ugly.

Through their first 25 games, the Oilers are giving up 3.72 goals per game, their team save percentage is sitting at .874 at even strength, and they’re blowing off their toes with 10-bell mistakes almost as often as they break out cleanly. Even when they score enough to keep things interesting — 3.08 goals per game should be more than enough — their defensive game ends up in shambles and they find creative ways to undo their own work. Seattle, meanwhile, doesn’t score as much at 2.57 goals per game, but they’ve also given up 34 fewer goals despite playing only two fewer games. Even if Seattle doesn’t blow you away with offence, they rarely implode on themselves either. They don’t give games away, and that alone puts them ahead of Edmonton on the ice and in the standings.

And that’s the whole thing, isn’t it? The Oilers aren’t losing because they’re getting overwhelmed by superior teams. They’re losing because they keep beating themselves every single night. The mistakes they’re making are all national emergencies, and they aren’t getting the saves they need when the storm hits. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that’s a bad combo. Toss in the goalie trade rumours swirling around here over the last few days, a fanbase teetering on rage filled crash outs, and a season that feels like it’s slipping away even though there is still plenty of time, and you’re left with a simple, uncomfortable question. If not now, when? What is it going to take to get these guys moving? Injuries or not, can they step up to play the right way?

Maybe this is the moment? A matinee against a team they’ve had plenty of success against in the past. A chance to put whatever the hell happened against the Stars in the rearview mirror. A chance to put some pride in their work after one of the most demoralizing losses of the year. A chance to give the season the defibrillator before it flatlines for real. The good news is that the Oilers don’t need a miracle to get the job done. They just need a response. A real one. A response that looks like a team that understands the situation, is pissed off about it, and refuses to keep letting this hole get deeper. If the boys can’t get up for a divisional game after getting dummied as the only game on the NHL schedule, then what exactly are we waiting for? The season may not be lost yet, but it’s certainly not slowing down for them either.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

	OILERS	KRAKEN
RECORD	10-10-5	11-6-6
WIN/LOSS STREAK	L1	L1
LAST 10 GAMES	4-5-1	5-3-2
GOALS FOR	77	59
GOALS AGAINST	93	59
POWER PLAY%	27.9	18.2
PENALTY KILL%	78.8	71.4
GOALS FOR/GAME	3.08	2.57
GOALS AGAINST/GAME	3.72	2.57
AVG. SHOTS/FOR	28.3	24.3
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST	26.6	27.5
TEAM SAVE%	.874	.934
CORSI FOR%	50.19	45.78
PDO	0.960	1.020
TEAM SHOOTING%	8.57	8.57
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%	47.95	43.65

Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

Today’s meeting marks the second of four this season between the Oilers and Kraken, with Seattle taking the first game of the season series with a 3-2 win at Climate Pledge Arena back on October 25th. They meet again on Thursday at Rogers Place and will then wrap up their season series on March 31 in Edmonton.
Evan Bouchard leads all active Oilers in career games played versus Seattle (16), while Leon Draisaitl leads all active Oilers in career points (28).
Leon Draisaitl has recorded a point in six straight games against the Kraken (3G, 10A), including five multi-point efforts. Drai has recorded multi-point games in 10 of his 13 appearances against them.
Connor McDavid has recorded a point in 11 of his 14 career games vs. Seattle (8G, 11A). Meanwhile, the returning Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a point in nine of his last 10 games against the Kraken (4G, 7A), and has recorded a point in 13 of his 15 career games.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Savoie – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Mangiapane
Henrique – Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark
Clattenburg – Lazar – Frederic

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Regula
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is back in the lineup for the first time since Nov. 8th, when he suffered a concussion during the 9-1 beatdown by the Avalanche, and the Oilers will need him to get back up to speed because the injuries are piling up and so are the losses. Not that Nuge is going to save the day single-handedly, but he is a guy with some skill who will be called upon to play some meaningful minutes. More importantly, the Oilers need to play this game like they actually want to be here. So often, they look a step behind, lifeless, and void of any emotion, and there’s no better time to pick that back up again than against a divisional opponent you’re chasing in the standings. From the crease out, everyone in a white uniform needs to be into this one.

Kraken

Marchment – Beniers – Eberle
McCann – Stephenson – Tolvanen
Catton – Gaudreau – Kakko
Kartye – Wright – Winterton

Dunn – Larsson
Lindgren – Montour
Evans – Oleksiak

Daccord

Seattle’s top line of Marchment – Beniers – Eberle is doing most of the heavy lifting right now, with Beniers (14 points) and Eberle (14 points) driving most of their offence. The McCann – Stephenson – Tolvanen trio has some pop too, even if Stephenson hasn’t scored as much as Kraken fans may have hoped. After that, the scoring drops off fast. Gaudreau has two points, Kakko has one, but the Wright line can still burn you if you’re sloppy. On the back end, Dunn–Larsson plays a ton, and the goaltending is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for a team that doesn’t generate much at five-on-five.

TONIGHT…

GDB Darnell Nurse Edmonton Oilers Photoshop Kraken | Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk

Game Day Prediction: Oilers 5, Kraken 3. Not because they’ve earned your trust that they’ll win, but because the Hockey Gords owe us one mildly enjoyable afternoon game before everything falls apart again.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Oilers will give up the first goal, look like they’ve never met each other for 10 minutes, then suddenly remember they’re pretty damned good when they try.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Mattias Janmark sneaks onto a rush as the late trailer, takes a pass no one thinks he’s getting, and snaps home his first of the year.

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