After securing the split in Dallas with a Game 2 shutout, the Edmonton Oilers return to Rogers Place for Game 3 to square off against the Stars in a Sunday Funday matinee.
Is anyone else confused why the NHL felt that Game 3 should be a 1 PM matinee? Not that I’m complaining — I love a good Sunday session as much as the next guy — but I don’t recall another instance in the playoffs where the Oilers have played this early. That said, both teams are in the same unusual situation, so complaining about the start time doesn’t mean squat. Like it or not, the Oilers still need to get the job done, and I’m hopeful that being back on home ice in front of a raucous crowd will give them the juice to keep executing at a high level.
The good news is that the Oilers have been better in matinees than our memories may suggest. Courtesy of Jason Gregor, I learned that Edmonton has played 50 matinee games since 2020 (with a 4 PM local start time or earlier) and has earned a 28-16-6 record, which is good for a .560 win percentage and a .620 points percentage. Obviously, what happened in past games has no bearing on what we see a couple of hours from now, but I do think it’s important to put some numbers out to show we could be in better shape than we may think. You’ve gotta believe, right?
Regardless of when the puck drops, the Oilers have a solid chance of wrestling the series lead into their corner if the boys can keep doing what they’ve been doing for five of the six periods played so far. From my side of the TV screen, I see an Edmonton club that is handily outplaying the Stars at even strength, and that’s a huge advantage provided the fellas can stay out of the penalty box. The PK was perfect in Game 2, to be fair, which was a nice step forward, but the last thing any of us need today is for the Oilers to gift the Stars opportunities to score that they can’t produce for themselves.
Looking at the series from the Stars’ perspective, they’ll be looking to reclaim home-ice advantage in this series and the Oilers will need to be ready for that push. As much as the Oilers were the better team at 5v5 through the first two games, we can’t sit here and pretend Dallas doesn’t have the weapons in their lineup to make some noise at even strength. I guess my point is that we can’t assume the trend of dominating the Stars will continue. It’s going to take just as much work, structure, and execution for a threepeat of what we need, and we’ve also seen exactly what can happen when the Oilers take their foot off the gas.
The other angle worth talking about is whether the Stars can use the Roope Hintz incident with Darnell Nurse as a rallying cry. The Stars players and coaches were big time in their feelings about it after Game 2, and I’d imagine they’ll be looking for opportunities for their pound of flesh. Hell, Mason Marchment said as much in post-game presser after the 3-0 loss, so it would be wise for our boys to keep their heads on a swivel. We’ve got way bigger plans around here than to fall into the Stars’ potential yearning for prison games revenge tactics.
The good news is that the Oilers are a veteran club that has seen a lot of shenanigans through the years, and I’m hopeful that experience will keep them focused on the task at hand rather than allowing themselves to get distracted by any noise Dallas spews their way. This afternoon’s game is a massive opportunity to take control of the series and move another step closer to a Stanley Cup Final return. Dallas can understandably be upset about Hintz if they want, but that should be Edmonton’s problem. The Oilers have already forged a path to getting there, and now we’ll see if they can keep walking it with another strong performance at Rogers Place.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
STARS
RECORD
9-4
9-6
WIN/LOSS STREAK
W1
L1
GOALS FOR
49
40
GOALS AGAINST
40
44
POWER PLAY%
25.0
33.3
PENALTY KILL%
64.1
84.3
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
31.8
25.1
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
27.1
31.0
TEAM SAVE%
.914
.926
CORSI FOR%
53.57
46.07
PDO
1.014
1.001
TEAM SHOOTING%
9.94
7.53
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
57.76
48.71
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
  • The Oilers are 32-24 all-time in Game 3s of a best-of-seven playoff series, with 19 of thise wins coming on home ice.
  • The Oilers and Stars are meeting in the playoffs for the 10th time — including the Minnesota North Stars days — and for the fourth time in a conference fina. The Oilers have won three of their past nine series against the Stars (2024 WCF – 4-2, 1997 WCQF – 4-3, and 1984 CCF – 4-0), and how good would it look to add a fourth win to the resume.
  • Corey Perry leads all active Oilers in career postseason games (14) while Connor McDavid leads all active Oilers in career playoffs points (13) against the Dallas Stars.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is rocking a two-game multi-point streak — he has two goals and a pair of assists (2G, 2A) – but has never recorded a three-game multi-point or goal streak in his postseason career. Friday marked his fourth multi-point game of the postseason and 20th of his career, tying Craig Simpson for 10th most in franchise history.
  • Connor Brown’s goal on Friday was his fifth of the postseason, and became the fifth Oiler to reach that mark in the playoffs. No other team has more than three players with five goals or more.

LINE COMBINATIONS

Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl –Kapanen
Kane – Henrique – Brown
Frederic– Janmark– Perry
Kulak – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Walman – Klingberg
Skinner
Based on the way the Stars players were talking post-game on Friday — I’m looking at you, Mason Marchment — the Oilers will need to stay disciplined and they’ll need to keep their head on a swivel. That’s not to say I’m worried about the boys handling their business if things get hairy, but rather a plea to ignore any noise Dallas may throw their way. Darnell Nurse could be enemy number one if Hintz isn’t able t0 play — he did travel to Edmonton with the Stars, unsurprisingly — but we need him on the ice way more than in the penalty box.

Stars

Granlund – Hintz – Rantanen
Marchment – Duchene – Seguin
Robertson – Steel – Johnston
Benn – Bäck – Dadonov
Harley – Heiskanen
Lindell – Ceci
Bichsel – Lyubushkin
Oettinger
I expect the Dallas to throw everything the can at the Oilers this afternoon. The Oil went into their barn and stole home-ice advantage, and I’d expect nothing less than the Stars trying to repay that favour. A big part of getting through Game 3 — I think — will be getting through the initial storm that is likely to come Edmonton’s way, and finding a way to weather the pressure without folding like a tent. Given how well the Oilers have done at 5v5 through the first two games, a good start has to be point #1 on the Keys to Victory board, and the boys have given us plenty of reasons to believe they can do it again.
UPDATE: Pete DeBoer says Roope Hintz is a game time decision. 

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Defending Big D:
After a slow start to the playoffs, Mikko Rantanen went supernova against his old team in the Colorado Avalanche. He then carried over that momentum against the Winnipeg Jets, before fading down the stretch. And now here he is again, just a single secondary point in two games against Edmonton (and only two assists in his last four games overall).
Now, Rantanen isn’t the only one to go cold — Wyatt Johnston has just one point since the first round (though he’s been tasked with defending some tough matchups), Matt Duchene’s goal in Game 1 was his only one of the postseason, Jason Robertson is still very clearly hurt and thus scoreless while playing fourth line minutes… you get the picture. But Rantanen was supposed to be an X factor for this series, the ace in the hole that Dallas didn’t have last year. If that’s not the case… I’ll just leave it like that.
Not helping matters is that linemate Roope Hintz (tied for the second on the team in scoring) had to leave the game early after getting slashed by Darnell Nurse. He was reported as having left the AAC in a walking boot, which honestly makes me a little hopeful that he might not miss time — you might recall Chris Tanev also got forced into a walking boot during the Western Conference Final last year (due to a blocked shot), and yet he was back in the lineup the next game.
Of course, there’s a big difference between playing and playing your best (again, see: Robertson, Jason). If the Stars’ talented forwards were humming, they might be able to absorb Hintz missing time or getting knocked down a peg or two. But as things stand, with scoring being a big issue outside of a single period in Game 1? Oof.

TONIGHT…

GDB Photoshop Brett Kulak Stuart Skinner Edmonton Oilers
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: Oilers score the first goal of the game, the crow erupts, and the boys keep the pedal to the floor en route to a 5-3 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Dallas Stars will get more power play opportunities than the Edmonton Oilers.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Give me a Troy Stecher goal. Give it to me.

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