After bouncing back with a convincing 3-0 win in Game 2, the Edmonton Oilers return home having reclaimed home-ice advantage in the Western Conference Final versus the Dallas Stars. After closing as slight underdogs on the road in Game 2, the Oilers are heavy favourites in Game 3, having looked to be the much more well-rounded side in the first two matchups of the series.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

While heading to Edmonton tied at one game apiece likely will not be viewed as a success inside the Stars locker room, it’s a result they should be happy to have, as it has been pretty clear which team played at a higher level throughout the majority of Games 1 and 2.

The Oilers hold a 59.82% expected goal share throughout the first two games of the series, which is no surprise given that only in the third period of Game 1 did the Stars appear to be the better team. The Stars have allowed 4.34 xGA/60 in those two matchups and have continued to look quite subpar on the defensive side of the puck.

The Stars’ defensive depth currently looks to be an issue, even with Miro Heiskanen back in the lineup handling heavy minutes. All four of the Stars’ top defenders played over 21:00, as head coach Pete DeBoer does not seem to have much faith in Alex Petrovic and Lian Bichsel handling more minutes in this difficult matchup. The Oilers did a good job of forcing those four skaters to make plenty of retrievals and taxing them physically in turn.

While DeBoer does not have much confidence in Petrovic and Bichsel, former Oiler Cody Ceci is struggling mightily while being used in a difficult shutdown role. Ceci finished the regular season with a -13.6 Goals Above Replacement Rating and has been heavily outplayed throughout the postseason.

With all due respect to Ceci, it seems unlikely that he will be able to elevate his role moving forward, which would be a significant concern for the Stars given the role he continues to receive.

Roope Hintz is considered a game-time decision after suffering a controversial slash from Darnell Nurse on the top of the laces. While the Stars will likely not reveal much information on Hintz’s status prior to puck drop, it would not be surprising to see the Finnish superstar gut out whatever injury was sustained at this time of year.

The Oilers offered a masterful defensive performance in Game 2, which helped Stuart Skinner bounce back and earn his third shutout of the postseason.

While it seemed reasonable to believe the Oilers would rebound after controlling even-strength play comfortably in Game 1, it seemed hard to believe that would mean entirely shutting down a deep Stars attack, but that was the case as the Oilers received strong play from up and down the lineup and were tactically sharp.

Edmonton did an excellent job of preventing the Stars from successfully completing stretch passes out of the defensive zone, and demanding Dallas to earn its offence elsewhere. The Oilers forwards did an excellent job of supporting the play defensively in all three zones in Game 2, which once again helped the defensive core play aggressive hockey and focus on only handling their jobs.

As we saw in Games 1 and 2 versus the Los Angeles Kings, the worst defensive breakdowns happen when players are attempting to account for mistakes in coverage already made by one of their teammates, and the Oilers have done a much better job of avoiding those types of breakdowns for a fairly large sample of games now.

The Oilers power play looked sharper overall in Game 2 and was able to break through with the first goal of the game as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins recorded his fifth goal of the postseason.

Over the last three postseasons (50 games), the Oilers power play has succeeded on 32.9% of opportunities. While the top unit has been a little more inconsistent this postseason, it will always prove to be far more of a strength than a weakness over a large enough sample of play.

Mattias Ekholm has not been ruled out for Games 3 and 4 and appears to be quite close to returning. Given that all six defenders currently seeing game action have been playing at a relatively high level, the Oilers may be more patient with Ekholm and will likely go with 11 forwards and 7 defenders when he initially jumps back into the lineup.

As long as Skinner can continue to make the saves he is supposed to, the Oilers should have an excellent chance of finding their way through this series. They have received excellent contributions from up and down the lineup, which has allowed Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to handle more comfortable workloads this postseason, and that should prove beneficial moving forward.

The Stars have struggled to play a well-rounded game throughout the entirety of this postseason and have continued to try to mask their suspect defensive play with timely scoring and incredible goaltending.

Given their differing reputations entering the year, it’s surprising to say that the Oilers have looked deeper and more well-structured this postseason than the Stars have, but that has without question been the case so far throughout the playoffs.

There’s always the chance Oettinger outperforms Skinner to help the Stars steal one on the road. Even with that in mind though, backing the Oilers to win in regulation at a price of +105 looks pretty appealing given their sharper overall play.