The Edmonton Oilers wasted an opportunity to claim home ice advantage from the Dallas Stars in Game 1, as they allowed three power-play goals against in the first 5:58 of the third period and were unable to get their game back in order from that point on.

Oddsmakers opened the Oilers at the same betting price as we saw in Game 1, but Edmonton has since moved to a price of +100. The total has been raised to 6.5 after nine combined goals in the series opener, which featured more shaky defensive play from the Stars, as well as an ugly performance from Stuart Skinner.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Oilers were in complete control of Game 1 through forty minutes of play, as they had rightfully attained a 3-1 lead with a dominant performance at even strength. Zach Hyman hit the crossbar in the second period on a great chance out front, and Darnell Nurse also hit the inner post with a clean look, and if either of those chances had gone in Edmonton likely could have survived its horrific start to the third period.

The Oilers were drastically sharper all over the ice for two periods, and throughout the entirety of the game did generate far more chances at even strength than the Stars. The Oilers held a 63.74% expected goal share in even-strength play in Game 1 and generated 3.84 xGF/60.

Those numbers seem to be a perfectly fair encapsulation of Game 1, and if Edmonton can offer a comparable level of play at even strength Friday while offering improved discipline, it should lead to a better result.

Stuart Skinner allowed 2.01 goals above expected, but, on a goal-by-goal basis, likely was not as ugly as the statistics suggest. His reputation as a below-average starter may be skewing the way his performance in Game 1 was viewed, as only Matt Duchene’s go-ahead goal marker was truly a bad goal against, as he should have had enough time to get back to the near post.

12 games into their playoff run, the Oilers hold a league-leading 57.91% expected goal share at even strength and have allowed only 2.33 xGA/60. Special teams play has been their greatest concern, as their power play and penalty kill hold a combined success rate of just 88.1%, well below the 100% benchmark, which is considered to be the target number by many coaches around the league.

While the Oilers defensive core has been effective overall, Edmonton has made some puzzling

Mattias Ekholm and Calvin Pickard appear to be inching closer to their respective returns but are not expected to play in this matchup. When Ekholm does return head coach Kris Knoblauch may elect to go with 11 and 7 to try and lessen Ekholm’s workload, as even if Ekholm is able to play at close to his regular level he will likely provide a huge boost to a penalty kill that struggled mightily in Game 1.

Game 1 was a relatively accurate encapsulation of the Stars’ entire playoff run, as while their overall game was not overly sharp, they were able to win around the margins with elite special teams play, while Jake Oettinger outperformed Skinner in goal. The Stars have taken a page out of the Oilers’ playbook in succeeding on 34.9% of power-play opportunities this postseason, which has helped to mask their lesser control of play at even strength.

Even in the four games since Miro Heiskanen returned to the lineup, the Stars have held just a 46.7% expected goal share and allowed 3.36 xGA/60. Owning slightly less of the play is a manageable issue with the combination of high-quality finishing threats the Stars hold throughout their top nine and elite goaltending. They have done an excellent job of coming up with timely goals in the key moments of many matchups, and Oettinger has made plenty of big saves in close score-lines to provide his team with the opportunity to win.

While for the Oilers, the focus will likely be to play a similar game while offering improved discipline and a more effective penalty kill, head coach Pete DeBoer will be attempting to figure out how his side can clean things up at even strength. On paper, the Stars do not project to be a team that should be getting outplayed at even strength, yet that has been the case for the final six weeks of the regular season and in the first 15 games of the playoffs.

The Oilers’ high-powered offense was able to cause plenty of problems for the Stars in Game 1, and as they continue to receive better offensive play from further down the lineup, that strength seems likely to continue in Game 2 versus a Stars team that continues to struggle defensively.

It is realistic to think the Oilers can spend fewer minutes shorthanded in this matchup with a more disciplined performance, and the penalty kill should be able to offer at least a somewhat improved performance. Edmonton’s power play also needs to be sharper, which is another realistic area where it could perform at a higher level than in Game 1.

At a price of +135, there looks to be value backing the Oilers to win a game that features over 4.5 total goals. It’s hard for me to imagine the Oilers entirely shutting down the Stars’ deep offensive core with Skinner in goal, and 3-1 is the only semi-plausible scoreline that would mean losing the bet because of the added leg of over 4.5 goals.

With that in mind, I see more value in backing the Oilers to win parlayed with over 4.5 goals at a price of +135, compared to simply betting the Oilers to win at +100.