After a rollercoaster win in Game 3, the Edmonton Oilers will look for a repeat performance against the Los Angeles Kings tonight at Rogers Place in a pivotal Game 4. Win, and we’ll have a tie series. Lose, and the Oilers will be on the brink of elimination heading back to a barn that has been anything but kind. Needless to say, we’ve got a big game on deck here, friends.
This series has been a rollercoaster, my friends, and it’s wild that we’re only heading into Game 4. We’ve had 30 goals through the first three games, and while I think we all expected a few games to be high scoring, I certainly didn’t see every game hitting the over quite handily. It’s like every shift has the potential to create offence for either team, creating situations where we never know what we’ll get. You’re on the edge of your seat for 60 minutes and primed to fist pump through the roof when things go our way or have your head fall into your hands when the plan goes sideways.
Not knowing what to expect from minute to minute makes me excited and nervous about what’s to come in a few hours. While there are plenty of things I’d love to see the Oilers carry over from Game 3, there are still plenty of sloppy issues in their game that keep throwing hurdles in their way. If Edmonton is going to knot up the series at two apiece, they need to do a better job of taking care of the puck and find ways to keep the game at 5v5. The Kings’ power play has been a nightmare for the Oilers’ PK through the first three games, and it will be nearly impossible to win this series if our boys keep allowing them to roll at almost 60%.
While the Oilers did a much better job defensively on Friday night than in the first two games, I think we can all agree that there’s still plenty of room to improve. There were still too many instances of the Kings finding their way into dangerous areas of the ice, which led to dangerous looks on net, and the Oilers’ skaters needed to do a better job of protecting the middle of the ice. They can’t keep letting guys like Adrian Kempe walk in with a clear lane to the goalie and rip pucks as he pleases. It’s been a problem through three games, and one our side needs to clean up in a hurry.
The good news is that the boys seem to be progressing game by game. While not perfect by any means, we didn’t get the number of yard sale breakdowns in Game 3 that we saw littered throughout the first two nights at Crypto.com Arena. Suppose we can keep this upward trajectory going combined with the Oilers seemingly starting to figure Darcy Kuemper out. In that case, that’s a pretty dangerous combination for Kings group that only seems interested in running nine forwards and five D. They’re going to run out of gas eventually. The longer this series goes on, the more that favours the Oilers.
But that stuff only matters if the Oilers can keep winning. As much as it was a blast to be at Rogers Place on Friday night for a first-hand look at the chaos that ensued, picking up that win was only the first step to coming back to win this series. There are still plenty of miles to go before the end of this thing, and if the Oilers are going to defend home ice again, they’ll need another 60 minutes of putting the pedal to floor. Only this time, it would be super beneficial if they can find a way to stay disciplined in the process. The Kings are feasting on special teams right now, and one of the biggest keys to a 2-2 tied series will be if Edmonton can find a way to stay out of the box.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
THE NUMBERS
OILERS | KINGS | |
RECORD | 1-2 | 2-1 |
WIN/LOSS STREAK | W1 | L1 |
GOALS FOR | 14 | 16 |
GOALS AGAINST | 16 | 14 |
POWER PLAY% | 28.6 | 58.3 |
PENALTY KILL% | 41.7 | 71.4 |
AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 29.0 | 29.7 |
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 29.7 | 29.0 |
TEAM SAVE% | .867 | .882 |
CORSI FOR% | 56.06 | 43.94 |
PDO | 0.984 | 1.016 |
TEAM SHOOTING% | 11.76 | 13.33 |
EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 53.45 | 46.55 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
- Connor McDavid leads all Oilers in career playoff scoring against the Kings with 43 points (10G, 33A) in 21 games. McDavid had 12 points (1G, 11A) in 2024, 10 points (3G, 7A) in 2023 and 14 points (4G, 10A) in 2022.
- The Oilers and Kings are meeting in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for a fourth consecutive season, making them the fifth pair of teams to meet one another in the first round of the playoffs that many years in a row. It’s the first time this happened since the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins did it from 1984 to 1987 (Habs won all four) and just the second set of teams to do it since the NHL expanded from its Original Six franchises. The other teams to do it are the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs (1963-66 – MTL won two, TOR won two), Chicago Blackhawks and Detroit Red Wings (1963-66 – DET won three, CHI won one) and Montreal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks (1959-62 – MTL won two, CHI won two).
LINE COMBINATIONS
Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Kane – Henrique – Brown
Frederic – Janmark – Perry
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Kane – Henrique – Brown
Frederic – Janmark – Perry
Nurse – Bouchard
Walman – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson
Walman – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson
Pickard
The biggest favour the Oilers can do for themselves tonight would be to stay out of the penalty box and keep the game at even strength. Edmonton’s lack of PK success is like an anchor around their necks right now, and if we can’t rely on improvement, then the only other option is to keep it clean.
Kings
Kuzmenko – Kopitar – Kempe
Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
Foegele –Danault – Moore
Malott – Helenius – Turcotte
Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
Foegele –Danault – Moore
Malott – Helenius – Turcotte
Anderson – Doughty
Gavrikov – Spence
Edmundson – Clarke
Gavrikov – Spence
Edmundson – Clarke
Kuemper
I’d bet all of Gregor’s money on the Kings coming out flying in Game 4 to try and restore their advantage. They know they’re in trouble if the Oilers to tie this series up, and that tells me that our boys had better be ready to go right from the opening draw. The other thing I’d bet Gregor’s money on is that L.A. will try and goad the Oilers into taking penalties, meaning the boys will have to be on their best behaviour to avoid falling into that trap.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
In the roughly 44 hours from the end of Game 3 to the start of Game 4 the Kings will have to prove they can address those issues that contributed to the loss and hope to rebound with a win that would give them a chance to close out the Oilers Tuesday at Crypto.com Arena and earn their first series victory since 2014.Hiller acknowledged there are a couple of areas he’d like to see the Kings get better at in Game 4 although he declined to identify them specifically.“It’s something we think we can, it’s not big stuff it’s small stuff, but we think we can do better with a little bit more attention to detail,” Hiller said.It’s been a series of great swings in momentum and unexpected twists and turns. And, oh yeah, lots of goals. Thirty goals in total through three games. That’s a lot. As a player or a coach, you don’t get to choose the type of game sometimes the game chooses you.“Honestly, I didn’t have that on my bingo card, 6-5, 6-2 and 7-4,” Kopitar quipped. “Probably would have taken the under on all of those. It is what it is. At the end of the day, you’re trying to be first to four wins and it doesn’t matter how it happens. Would we prefer not giving up seven goals? Of course. It happens sometimes and we’ve got to move on.”TONIGHT…
Photoshop courtesy of Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
Game Day Prediction: Nothing better than a 4-2 Oilers win on a Sunday to tie the series and cap off your weekend.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The special teams will play a major factor again. For which team? Only time will tell.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Vasily Podkolzin picks up his first goal of the series by parking himself in front of the net and fighting his way into a greasy one.
