The Edmonton Oilers had the most potent offence in the NHL in the opening round. They averaged 4.5 goals/game, and they did that against the LA Kings, who were the second stingiest team in the regular season. In 50 regular season starts, Darcy Kuemper allowed 100 goals on 1,267 shots for a .922Sv%, which was second best among the 35 goalies who started 35+ games. However, in six playoff games vs. Kuemper, Edmonton scored 23 goals on 207 shots and Kuemper finished with an .889Sv%. They scored five goals in a game three times in six games. Kuemper only had two games with five-plus goals against in the regular season.
The Oilers lit up one of the best defensive teams and a Vezina trophy finalist in round one, and now they will focus on finding ways to exploit Vegas and Adin Hill. Hill won the Stanley Cup in 2023 and was the backup for Canada at the 4 Nations Cup this past February. He’s been a solid NHL goalie the past three years. The Oilers used offence to beat a good defence in round one and will look to mirror that in round two.
Vegas had the third-best GAA in the regular season at 2.61. They were a better offensive team than LA, finishing fifth in GF/GP at 3.34, and they had the second-best power play at 28.3%. The Oilers can’t give Vegas as many high-quality chances as they gave LA. Vegas will make you pay more than the Kings did, and the Kings averaged 4.00 goals/game in round one. The Oilers’ penchant for horrific turnovers gifted LA many great opportunities. They need to reduce those this round, and we’ll discuss that later in the article.
Let’s start with a scouting report on where the Oilers should attack Adin Hill. I asked Kevin Woodley, from In Goal Magazine, for his report, and as always, it was quite in-depth.
On open looks, you should go after his glove,” said Woodley. “When I did the charting, high glove during the regular season was 24 goals, and high blocker was 15. The first round in the playoffs saw four goals high glove, and that was the predominant area to score on him. When they (shooters) move a goalie east-west, they know when the goalie slides or moves laterally, they tend to lower their gloves, so they shoot there. Save percentage on high glove was .768%, and his expected goal differential was significantly below expected. So open looks and lateral plays, that’s where you go.
“Another direction to go is rebounds. There were 21 goals where rebounds were the primary factor on Hill, which is almost double the average around the league, and predominantly on the blocker side. When we look at the goal chart, quite often when we see numbers outside of the goalie skate, like, goalies aren’t getting beat along the ice. They’re typically representative of plays where you lose your net a little bit or where backdoor tap-ins, things like that, where the goalie gets stretched out wide. And they’re more than double on the right side than the left (on Hill), and a lot of that was the rebound.
“So, getting him moving, whether that’s attacking down low, bottom of the circles, or as you mentioned, with the Darcy Kuemper example, even from below the goal line, like walkouts attacking from left to right, which is from his glove over to his blocker side. That’s the way to generate offence off second chances for him, and that was a significant way that teams scored against him this year.
“East-west plays are a way to score on goaltenders around the National Hockey League. This is what Clear Sight Analytics was founded on: the concept of slot line plays. They used to call them royal roads. Anything between the top of the circles and the goal line where you can move the puck from one side to the other is going to increase your odds of scoring on any goalie. Now, interestingly enough, for a lot of them, that is increased below the hash marks. Low slot line plays are predominantly where offence has increased in the last five years.
“But Adin excels on those because he’s got that reach. He’s got those long legs, and he plays somewhat conservatively in zone, and it is a short pass for him to move east to west, and he’s got that really wide butterfly flare. He gets there. He’s going to get there along the ice, and you usually build a little bit of vertical coverage above it. But when it’s off the rush, he tends to come out and retreat. Like, he’s no longer an inside-out goaltender off the rush.
“He comes out and flows backwards, so use high lateral passes off rush. Make that play higher in the zone, and don’t be afraid to one-time the puck from distance as high out as the top of the circles. Because inevitably, if you (goalie) start out taking ice and retreating, the earlier that pass is entering the zone, the further he has to go. And if you wait until it gets in tight, he’s shortened his path, and that’s sort of how he plays on in zone play.
“And the last one is low-high scramble. Pucks below the goal line, and the Oilers are excellent at generating pop passes from below the goal line up into the zone. That’s where you can get him into broken play scramble situations. He has a tendency to reach and lunge in those, again, more to the right than to the left. And there’ll be a lot of loose change there, if you can win battles in those areas. However, it’s not easy against the Vegas defence. I’d attack down low from the goal line, pop passes, and try and win those battles to the front of the net. Guys like Zach Hyman should have success in that area.”
Edmonton was very successful creating offence on Kuemper below the goal line. It was interesting reading Woodley’s assessment of how the Oilers should attack Hill off the rush by making passes higher in the zone, rather than closer to the net. I enjoy these scouting reports because I like to see how often teams incorporate these types of offensive attacks.
The Oilers have lots of offensive weapons. Their forward group has combined to score 20+ goals 32 times, 30 goals (16x), 40 goals (6x), 50 goals (6x) and 60 goals once in a season. The only forwards without at least two seasons with 20+ goals are Mattias Janmark (career high of 19), Trent Frederic (18) and Vasily Podkolzin (14). (If you are curious, Vegas’ forwards have scored 20 goals 36 times, 30 goals (8x) and 40 goals once.)
And Edmonton’s blueliners can also provide offence. In his four NHL seasons, Bouchard is tied for seventh in goals (52) and ninth in points (232) among D-men. He has career highs of 18 goals and 82 points. John Klingberg has had six seasons with 40+ points and double-digit goals four times, with a career high of 13. Darnell Nurse has four seasons with double-digit goals, with a career high of 16, while Jake Walman produced 40 points for the first time in his career this season.
Offence shouldn’t be a problem for the Oilers, and, in the past few seasons, they’ve found ways to exploit opposing goalies. They scored 19 goals in six games (3.16 goals/game) on Hill in 2023, which was okay, but nine of them came in their two victories. They only scored 10 goals in their four losses, including four by Leon Draisaitl in the opening game. In the other three losses, they scored six goals. They will need to be more consistent offensively to win this series.

Edmonton Oilers Darnell Nurse and Calvin Pickard
Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

SNAPSHOTS…

Calvin Pickard will start his fifth straight game for the Oilers, and I asked Woodley how he expects Vegas to attack Pickard, especially with more recent game footage to watch.
“Up until this point, there’s never been a need to break it (his video) down to this degree. And sometimes it takes a little bit. I remember the Oilers against Florida in the Cup Final last year. The book (on how to score) is written on Bob. But early in that series, it was like they weren’t reading from it. They weren’t paying attention. They were making plays and scoring decisions as shooters that fed into his strengths rather than against them. So, whether Vegas pays attention to it (book on Pickard) or not, they will be able to build a good pre scout. He’s played enough games.
“One of the things that made Calvin special in the first round was his results against high-danger chances. Some of the best in the entire league. In his first three games, he allowed three goals on 19 high-danger chances. He finished the first round with six goals on 30 high-danger chances. The Oilers allowed 11 in their final game and were quite leaky defensively, and even after allowing three goals in that game, only Jacob Markstrom and Freddie Anderson had better results on high-danger chances in the first round.
“Now the question is, do you look at that in the small sample and think let’s try and beat him other ways or do you look at his entire year, which is probably what they’ll do, because his results in the regular season on these types of high danger chances were actually below expected, and this is likely a heater. At the end of the day, good offence is good offence, and I think teams will try and just create good offence. But there are specific things that apply to Pickard as well. And one of them is screens and sight lines.
“In the regular season, more than a quarter of the 85 goals he gave up involved the screen. And the Kings actually, interestingly enough, had four goals on just 16 chances off-screen. So, he handled all the high danger stuff, but traffic, he’s not the biggest goaltender. Vegas’ defensemen are very good at getting pucks through traffic, so will they try and generate high danger chances or will they settle for bodies and pucks to the net?”
— Here’s a look (albeit very simple) at how teams fared in the opening round when they posted a +.900Sv% compared to a -.900Sv%. Goalies combined for 49 appearances with a +.900Sv% and 45 appearances with a -.900Sv%. Pretty even, and it was even for winning and losing teams. Series-winning teams had 25 games with +900 and 22 games with -900, while teams who lost their series had 24 games with +900 and 23 with -900.
TEAM
+.900
-.900
DAL
4-1
0-2
WPG
1-0
3-3
EDM
2-0
2-2
VGK
4-0
0-2
FLA
3-0
1-1
TOR
4-0
0-2
CAR
2-1
2-0
WSH
3-0
1-1
TEAM
+.900
-.900
COL
2-1
1-3
STL
2-2
1-2
LA
1-2
1-2
MIN
2-2
0-2
TB
1-1
0-3
OTT
2-0
0-4
NJ
1-3
0-1
MTL
0-2
1-2
Teams who won their series were 23-2 with a +.900Sv%, and they had a record of 9-13 when they posted a -.900Sv%
Teams who lost their series were 11-13 with a +900Sv% and posted a record of 4-19 with a -900Sv%.
Vegas, Toronto and Ottawa were the only teams that won all their games with a +900Sv% and lost all theirs with a -900Sv%. It is likely too simple to say that if the Oilers can get Hill to be sub-.900Sv%, they will win, but in the first round, that was the case.
— Have the Oilers figured out how to score into an empty net? They were 26th in the NHL in the regular season with only 12 empty net goals. Ten teams had 20+ ENG, with Tampa Bay leading with 28. But in the first round, the Oilers scored four ENG, tied for the most in round one. McDavid and Connor Brown each scored one in Game 3, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had one in Game 5, and Brown scored another in Game 6.
— In their 2023 series loss to Vegas, Draisaitl scored six goals in six games, including four in Game 1, while McDavid scored five goals. The rest of the forwards scored five combined. The Oilers have more depth throughout the lineup, and they will need them to produce.
— I asked Kris Knoblauch what he sees as the biggest strengths of the Golden Knights.
“I think their defence makes it hard to get to the net with how big they are,” said Knoblauch. “But as big and physical they are, the still have a lot of offensive ability. Usually, you think of big strong defense as being stay at home guys who don’t produce much offense, but that’s not the case with them.
“With their systems. LA ran man-on-man, and Vegas is completely different than that. But I think the biggest thing is just how dangerous they are off the rush. They scored more goals off the rush than any team in the NHL during the regular season. It is going to be really important how we are managing pucks, and we have a good backcheck to limit those opportunities.”
Vegas is great at transitioning the puck up ice after a turnover in their defensive zone. The Oilers need to reduce their turnovers high in the offensive zone or Vegas will feast on them.
— The Oilers haven’t been very successful in Game 1 of a seven-game series during the Connor McDavid era…
2017 R1: Lost 3-2 v. San Jose but won series in 6.
2017 R2: Won 5-3 @ ANA but lost in seven.
2021 R1: Lost 4-1 v. WGP and lost in four games.
2022 R1: Lost 4-3 v. LA but won in seven.
2022 R2: Lost 9-6 @ CGY, won in five.
2022 R3: Lost 8-6 @ COL and lost in four.
2023 R1: Lost 4-3 v. LA but won in six.
2023 R2: Lost 6-4 @ Vegas and lost in six.
2024 R1: Won 7-4 v. LA and won in five.
2024 R2: Lost 5-4 @ VAN but won in seven.
2024 R3: Won 3-2 @ DAL and won in six.
2024 R4: Lost 3-0 @ FLA and lost in seven.
2025 R1: Lost 6-5 @ LA but won in six.
They are 3-10 in opening games of the series. They are 2-1 in the series when they win Game 1 and they are 6-4 in the series when they lose Game 1. They have a 66.7W% when they win Game 1 and a 60W% when they lose. It shows they are a tough out when they lose the opening game, but their winning% drops to .500 when the lose Game 1 on the road.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Draisaitl – McDavid – Perry
Kane – RNH –Hyman
Frederic – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – Janmark– Arvidsson
Nurse – Bouchard
Walman – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson
Pickard
The defence pairs are equivalent to a home room in junior high. Sure, you have one, but it isn’t where you spend the majority of your time. In Game 6 v. LA, Evan Bouchard played 8:43 with Walman, 5:01 with Nurse and 4:52 with Kulak. The Oilers use various combinations as they don’t play Emberson as much as the others. I wouldn’t get too worked up over what the D pairs are listed as. They aren’t deployed like that very often.

Golden Knights

Karlsson – Eichel – Stone
Saad – Hertl – Kolesar
Barbashev – Roy – Smith
Pearson – Howden – Olofsson
Hague – Pietrangelo
McNabb – Theodore
Hanafin – Whitecloud
Hill
Pavel Dorofeyev won’t play, and his return date is unknown. This is a huge blow for Vegas. He led them in goals with 35 and was second with 13 power-play goals in the regular season. He was injured in Game 5 v. Minnesota, and reports out of Vegas are best-case scenario is a return later in the series, if at all.


TONIGHT…

GAME DAY PREDICTION: At some point, the Oilers have to learn their lesson, don’t they? They break the trend and win Game 1 by a score of 5-3.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid and Draisaitl will not be pointless 5×5 for a third consecutive game.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Evan Bouchard scores his first non-PP playoff point v. Vegas. He had seven points in the 2023 series, but all came on the power play.