To say the Oilers don’t have enough offense to compete without Connor McDavid in the lineup is short sighted. Edmonton has more than enough skill to handle his absence. The more accurate question is: Will their skill produce?

Edmonton is off to a sluggish start, to put it mildly, offensively. They’ve scored a measly 22 goals in 10 games. But it is only recency bias that suggest the Oilers won’t be able to score without McDavid. I understand why McDavid’s absence raises alarms. Since entering the NHL in 2015-16, he leads the league with 992 points. Nathan MacKinnon is third with 816 points and he’s played one less game. MacKinnon is a world-class player and he’s 176 points back of McDavid in nine seasons and one month.

The second-highest scorer in that time is Leon Draisaitl with 851 points. He’s won a Hart Trophy, the Art Ross and has the fourth-highest points/game in playoff history (minimum 50 GP). He’s an elite player. Don’t buy into the nonsense Draisaitl is only good because of McDavid. It is the most ignorant claim in hockey circles. Of course, Draisaitl benefits from playing with McDavid on the PP and around 35% of the time at 5×5. But Nathan MacKinnon benefits playing with Mikko Rantanen, as does Nikita Kucherov with Brayden Point and Auston Matthews with Mitch Marner. The difference is those duos play significantly more time together at 5×5 than McDavid and Draisaitl do.

Do a quick search of Draisaitl’s 5×5 most common linemates the past five seasons. He doesn’t play regularly with a first line partner like MacKinnon, Kucherov and Matthews do. He and McDavid, when together produce more, as they should, but Draisaitl is a great player, and the only time McDavid missed more than a few games in a row, Draisaitl stepped up and produced 12 points in six games. He’s more than capable to doing it.

The funny thing is, even with McDavid out of the lineup, Draisaitl won’t play with the team’s best wingers. He will continue to play with Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin tonight. Jeff Skinner and Zach Hyman play beside Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

As for their PP success together, McDavid and Draisaitl have crushed it. But McDavid can’t shoot the puck in the net for Draisaitl. It is Draisaitl’s skill that has made him an elite finisher on the PP. It seems people would rather downplay his success, than realize the other top players in the league can’t produce like he does, despite having the same advantage on the powerplay. It is an odd way to analyze a player’s success.

Edmonton has loads of offensive depth. They haven’t produced as well as they should to this point, but don’t confuse that for a lack of skill. Even without McDavid the Oilers have the following in tonight’s roster.

Draisaitl: Three 50-goal seasons and five 100+ point campaigns. First line centre.

Hyman: Eighth-most goals and 25th-most points in NHL the past two seasons. Legit top-six winger.

Skinner: Six-time 30+ goal scorer and 10-time 20-goal man. He has the 45th-most goals in NHL the past two seasons. Legit top-six winger.

Arvidsson: Four-time 25+ goal scorer and reached 30+ goals twice. Had 15 points in 18 games last year. Proven top-six winger.

Nugent-Hopkins: Has averaged 0.91 points/game the past six seasons which is tie for 40th in NHL. Legit top-six forward.
Adam Henrique: Scored 20+ goals seven times including each of the past two seasons. Excellent third line centre.

In the past two seasons 50 D-men in the NHL have scored 40 points at least once. Edmonton is the only team with three defenders who have reached 40+ points on their respective team. Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse have all done it and they are 12th, 15th and 18th in EV points among D-men the past two seasons. They are more than capable of chipping in offensively.

Missing McDavid hurts, no question, but don’t buy into the narrative the Oilers can’t handle his absence. They have more than enough skill to succeed without him, especially since he’s only supposed to be gone 2-3 weeks. But they need to play to their capabilities. They haven’t produced as well as they could through 10 games and McDavid was in the lineup.

They need to be better. They are capable of it. Now they need to use this as an opportunity to prove they are good players. Don’t use the McDavid injury as an excuse to struggle. It’s a copout. They have good players. Go out and prove it, starting tonight in Nashville.

— Corey Perry leads all active players with eight points (3-5-8) on Halloween.

— Draisaitl has 23 goals and 38 points in his previous 15 games v. Nashville. He has 15 goals and 22 points in his last seven road games in Nashville. He loves playing the Predators and the Oilers need him to remain hot tonight.

— My favourite obscure stat of the early NHL season for the Oilers: They are 4-0 in games they have a fight, and 0-5-1 in games without a fight. Of course they don’t need to fight to win, but this season it has energized them as on multiple occasions they were flat prior to the tilt.

— More concerning stats: The Oilers have three first period goals. They are on pace to score 25. Last season they were second in the NHL with 91 first period goals.

— The Oilers scored first in 43 games last year. They were 31-9-3 and they were 18-18-9 when allowing the first goal. This season they’ve only scored first three times and are 1-1-1. The only game they won when scoring first was against Pittsburgh, but they didn’t score until 27 minutes into the game on their 30th shot. They’ve had some great starts in regard to controlling the play and creating chances, but the lack of finish has really hurt. An early goal would be a great remedy for their struggling offence.

— Nashville has only scored first three times as well, and they are 1-2 which included their 4-2 loss to the Oilers exactly two weeks ago.

— Nashville has scored the fewest 5×5 goals in the NHL with 11 in nine games.

— The Oilers’ PP is 21.4% in their last three games (3-for-14), but the first unit has only scored once. With McDavid out, Kris Knoblauch and Glen Gulutzan have opted to go with three forwards and have Mattias Ekholm join Draisaitl, RNH, Hyman and Bouchard. I wonder it we will see Bouchard slide down to the left circle for a one-timer with Ekholm running the top of the umbrella?

— Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, Corey Perry, Viktor Arvidsson and Darnell Nurse will be the second unit. Will we see a more even split in PP time? We did see the second unit start a few PPs recently.

Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Arvidsson
Skinner – RNH – Hyman
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Caggiula – Philp – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Dermott
Kulak – Emberson

Pickard

Noah Philp will make his NHL debut tonight, while Drake Caggiula will play his first NHL game since March of 2023. Both will be energized and Philp will add more speed to the fourth line centre spot.

Pickard makes his fourth start of the season and is looking for his second victory over the Predators in two weeks.

Forsberg – O’Reilly – Marchessault
Stamkos – Novak – Nyquist
Jankowski – Sissons – Evangelista
L’Heureux – McCarron – Smith

Josi – Schenn
Skjei – Fabbro
Lauzon – Carrier

Saros

The Preds have started to find their stride. They are 3-0-1 in their last four games and mainly due to their improved defensive play allowing 2.00 goals against/game. Steven Stamkos picked up two assists in their 3-2 OT loss to Tampa Bay, and he might have some closure after 16 seasons in Tampa Bay. The Preds would love for him to get going offensively.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Edmonton can’t win in Columbus but can’t lose in Nashville. That trend continues with a 3-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Leon Draisaitl scores a goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Philp and Caggiula combine to score a goal.