Before the Edmonton Oilers’ season began, if you were asked to rate the power play, penalty kill, 5×5 scoring and 5×5 defending, I guarantee the power play and 5×5 scoring would have been near the top and 5×5 defending might have been at the bottom for the majority of fans.

One month into the season, 5×5 defending has been the best aspect of the Oilers’ game, and it isn’t really close. The other three areas need to improve. Quickly.

The Oilers rank 12th in 5×5 goals against/60, 12th in expected goals/60, fourth in shots against/60 and they are 15th in 5×5 Sv%. Not elite, but in the upper half of the NHL in all four categories. The Oilers’ 5×5 defending has been the most consistent aspect of their game.

Next best would be their 5×5 scoring, which shows how bad the special teams are.

The Oilers rank 25th in goals for/60. They are 30th in shooting percentage at 5.74%. They are fifth in xGF/60 and second in shots for/60. It is great they are creating chances, but chances don’t win you games. Goals do, and they aren’t finishing. It has been an issue all season — they have 21 goals 5×5, which puts them on pace to score 132. They had 193 last season and 192 in 2023. They led the NHL in 5×5 goals combined in 2023 and 2024 with 385. The Oilers are built to score, but right now they aren’t scoring. I understand the thinking that they will score, because we saw it last season, but that isn’t a guarantee. It is a fair assumption, but will they for sure score 171 or 170 goals 5×5 in the next 69 games to match last the two season’s totals? It is far from a guarantee. And it doesn’t change the fact that through 13 games, their inability to finish plays has cost them.

Through 13 games last year the Oilers had 22 goals 5×5. Zach Hyman led with five, Warren Foegele had three, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Sam Gagner and Nurse had two while Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais and Dylan Holloway had one.

This season, Draisaitl leads with five, Jeff Skinner and Bouchard have three, McDavid and Corey Perry have two and Adam Henrique, Viktor Arvidsson, Connor Brown, RNH, Hyman and Kulak have one. The majority of players need to be sharper around the net and in the high danger shooting areas.

Here is where it really gets ugly. The power play is 27th in 14.7%. They are 29th in goals with five. They are 30th in power play opportunities (PPO)/game at 2.62. They are 30th in shots/60. They are 31st in actual shots on goal with 39. Unlike their 5×5 play, they aren’t creating a lot and not finishing. They rank 23rd in expected goals.

Outside of 2023, the Oilers haven’t been great at drawing penalties. In 2022 they were 19th in PPO/GP at 2.87. In 2023 they were sixth at 3.35 and last season they were 20th at 2.96. They could help themselves by forcing opponents to take more penalties, but 2.62 or 2.87 or 2.96 isn’t a massive difference. The power play was 26% in 2022, 32.4% in 2023 and 26.3% in 2024. It is 14.7% now and has looked lethargic and lacking in motion and creativity all season.

The return of McDavid should help, in theory, but in the 10 games with him the PP was 13.8%. Even with him it struggled. The top unit needs more urgency. They have to match the assertiveness of the opposing penalty kill. The top unit only has three goals all season. Their lack of shooting is apparent, and much of that is due to them not getting second or third chances. They are one shot and done too often.

Here is the first unit’s shots/60 totals from last year on the PP: Draisaitl (18.97), Hyman (14.73), McDavid (14.58), Bouchard (12.45) and RNH (8.3).

So far this season, only RNH is remotely close to last year: Draisaitl (9.98), Hyman (6.49), McDavid (10.32), Bouchard (7.39) and RNH (8).

Hyman and Draisaitl are a combined 16.47, while last season they were 33.70. They are averaging less than half the number of shots thus far. The entire unit is stuck in neutral and needs to get more aggressive, create some shooting lanes and winning battles to create second and third chances to set up and regroup. I asked McDavid what he saw from the outside looking in the past few games.

“The power play seems a bit lifeless.” said McDavid. “We know what we are doing out there, but it is time to get the excitement back in the group and the energy back on the power play.”

I asked him his thoughts on the low shot volume and how they can improve in that area.

“Shots are one thing, but I think it is the retrievals that has been the issue. We are getting our shots, but we aren’t getting anything back and we aren’t generating second, third or fourth chances and that has always been our staple. It has never been the set play that has made us successful, it has been retrievals, getting the puck back and scoring on second and third chances when you are off script.”

They have been one-and-done too often, and we will see if McDavid’s return leads to a bit more excitement on the PP. The powerplay was 20% in his absence (three games) so it has shown a bit of life lately, albeit in a small sample size.

The PK has been bad, but it is the one area I thought would struggle, albeit not this much. Vincent Desharnais and Cody Ceci were their top-two RD on the penalty kill, and they were solid. Ceci played with Nurse and Ekholm skated with Desharnais most of the year. When Kris Knoblauch took over, he put Mark Stuart in charge of the PK, and Stuart’s first mission was to create some consistency and continuity in the pairs. It worked.

The Oilers’ PK was 30th last season through the first 13 games at 70% allowing 15 goals on 50 kills. Then Stuart took over and the PK was seventh over the final 69 games at 81.7%. It went nuclear in the playoffs at 94.3% allowing only four goals on 70 kills, while also scoring three shorthanded goals. Being -1 on the PK over 24 games is amazing, but unrealistic to maintain. The Oilers’ playoff PK was the third-best all time among teams who played at least eight games, and it was the best all time among teams who won at least two rounds.

But it shouldn’t be this bad. The Oilers are last on the PK at an ugly 60%. They’ve allowed 14 goals on 35 kills. Thankfully, they don’t take many penalties, or it could be worse. They are tied for fifth in fewest times shorthanded (TS)/game at 2.69. Boston, Toronto and San Jose are the most penalized teams averaging over 4.07 TS/game.

They are 15th in SA/60 at 49.82. They were fifth last season at 49.27. They aren’t giving up any more shots and they aren’t giving up many quality chances overall either as they rank ninth. They need more stops. Calvin Pickard has allowed seven goals on 16 shots in 16:55. Stuart Skinner has allowed seven goals on 27 shots in 34 minutes. They need more stops, but a few more shot blocks could also help.

The Oilers have allowed five PP goals through screens. Did you know that screened shots (40%) have a higher success rate of going in than breakaways? The other factor, which is hard to pinpoint but is also always lurking, is confidence. When the PK is confident, there is no hesitation. Guys are aggressive, they don’t hesitate and that makes it harder on the PP. You see the split-second hesitation more often when confidence is low. And then guys try to do too much to try and solve the problem, but often that leads to more issues. Darnell Nurse has been a culprit of that a few times, where he gets out of position by doing too much. He needs to reduce those moments as well.

Overall, there isn’t one solution. More saves, more blocked shots, getting clears when they have a chance — it all needs to improve.

It will be a tough test tonight against Vegas. Their PP is third best in the NHL at 32.3%.

— The Oilers have allowed 14 PP goals in 13 games. They’ve only scored five PP goals, so they are -9 on special teams. They are essentially starting 70% of their games trailing 1-0. Not ideal, and it is very difficult to win when both special team units are struggling. They’ve only had three games where the PK was above 75%. They defeated Pittsburgh and Detroit, but lost to Calgary.

— Vegas and Edmonton games are near the bottom when it comes to total PP chances in games. Vegas is 31st in PPO/game at 2.58 and they are the least-penalized team at 1.92 TS/game. Their games have averaged a total of 4.5 PP/game. Winnipeg is next at 5.00 and the Oilers have third fewest at 5.31. The Oilers are 30th in PPO/game at 2.62 and 5th fewest TS at 2.69.

— Vegas is 8-0 at home this season outscoring teams 43-19. They 0-3-1 on road and have been outscored 18-11. I wonder how much the quality of opponent factors in on that. Their four road games came against teams who made the playoffs last year and are currently in a playoff spot this season in Florida, Tampa, Washington and LA. Meanwhile, in their eight home games they only faced two teams who made the playoffs last year (LA and COL), and the only teams currently in the playoffs are LA, STL and CGY.  Vegas is 5-0 against teams currently out of a playoff spot and 3-3-1 against teams in the playoffs.

— Edmonton has struggled at home early this season going 2-4-1 and they’ve been outscored 24-13. They’ve been shutout by Winnipeg and New Jersey. They are 2-1 v. teams not in a playoff spot, and 0-3-1 v. those currently in one. They need a win against a good team on home ice to boost their confidence.

— Vegas leads the NHL with 40 goals 5×5, but they’ve also allowed the fifth most with 30. Their games have been high event hockey at 5×5 with 70 total goals, while Oilers games have had 45. As outlined above, Edmonton’s defensive play at 5×5 has been pretty decent, but it will be tested tonight against Vegas, and their 5×5 scoring has to wake up if they hope to win.

Skinner – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Arvidsson
Henrique – RNH – Brown
Janmark – Ryan – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

Connor McDavid returns after missing three games. The Oilers put out a release that initially said he’d be out two to three weeks. Turns out he only was out nine days. McDavid said he feels fine and is confident because the doctor gave him the green light. McDavid and Jeff Skinner have only played one game together, and that was game three v. Calgary. Skinner scored on his first shift, but they only played 9:37 together before Kris Knoblauch changed the lines in the third period. McDavid and Skinner have played a total of 15:40 together. I’d like to see Knoblauch give them an extended look. The potential for them to succeed is quite high considering both have excelled 5×5 in their careers.

Adam Henrique will slide to the wing with RNH as they form a new third line. The Oilers could use some production from their third line.