The St. Louis Blues haven’t won a game since October 18th. They are 0-5-2 in their last seven games and 3-7-2 all season. They’ve been outscored 50-34. They rank last in goals against at 4.17/game and they’ve allowed a league-high 34 goals 5×5. Their defensive game and goaltending are in shambles.

They are 0-7-1 when allowing three goals or more.

Under Jim Montgomery last season, the Blues were 35-18-7. They had the sixth-best record and seventh-best GA/GP once he was hired, but so far this season, they are leaking goals and losing games at a much higher rate. Now is not the time for the Oilers to show empathy. They need a killer instinct and to beat a team while it’s down.

Home ice hasn’t been comforting for the Blues. They are 1-4-2 while getting outscored 31-16. Despite the losses, the Blues have actually started well recently.

They have scored first in each of their past three games, however, holding leads has been a MAJOR issue for them. Earlier this season, they had a 4-0 lead 23 minutes into the game but lost 6-4 in Detroit. They’ve only won two games when scoring first this season. They are not a confident team right now, and the Oilers can’t feel their way into the game. They need to come out with some energy, get a lead and not relent.

That won’t be easy for the Oilers, as they haven’t been great at starting games. They scored first in their first three games of the season, going 2-0-1, but they’ve only scored first twice in their last 10 games. They won both of those games, so clearly scoring first is a big advantage for Edmonton. They are 4-0-1 when scoring first and 2-4-2 when allowing the first goal.

Scoring first is a clear advantage in the NHL, as teams scoring first are 132-46-20 with a winning percentage of 66.7% and a points percentage of 71.7%.

The Oilers win 80% of their games when they score first and 25% when they don’t, while the Blues have won 33.3% of their games when scoring first and 16.7% when allowing the first goal. The numbers are pretty clear, although the Blues’ struggles holding a lead are apparent.

I think it is important to look at how teams play 5×5 when they are leading, when they are trailing and when the game is tied. Here’s a look at their TOI when leading, trailing and tied, then their SF-SA and their GF-GA. This is all at 5×5.

Edmonton has played the most minutes in the NHL tied at 5×5 with 332 minutes, while the Blues have been tied for only 190 minutes, yet both teams have the identical GF-GA differential at 6-10. The Blues have allowed a lot of goals when the game is tied, while the Oilers struggle to score when the game is tied, especially at 5×5.

The Oilers’ 5×5 offence is still lethargic. They’ve scored 23 goals, but it’s not like they are generating way more and are just unlucky. Their expected GF at 5×5 is only 25. The Blues’ biggest issue has been their goaltending. They’ve allowed 34 goals 5×5, but their expected goals are 23. They have had a few defensive lapses, but overall goaltending has let them down.

Edmonton needs to avoid giving Jordan Binnington any confidence. They need to bury their chances early, as the Blues are still fragile, and if the Oilers get a lead they need to try and hold onto it.

— Robert Thomas returns to the Blues’ lineup tonight. Getting their #1 centre back will give them a boost and the Oilers have to be ready for an early surge.

— The Oilers have the best power play in the NHL at 33.3%. It is carrying them offensively, and if they could manage to draw a few more penalties it could be lethal. The Oilers have drawn the sixth-fewest PP chances/game at 2.77.

— The Blues’ PK is 27th at 69.7%, largely in part to shoddy goaltending. They’ve allowed 10 goals while posting an expected GA of just over five. Oilers need to draw some penalties early if they can.

— Edmonton wasn’t strong 5×5 against Chicago, except for Leon Draisaitl’s line. They were excellent outshooting Chicago 8-1. The rest of the forwards were outshot 24-12. Edmonton still needs more from Connor McDavid’s line 5×5.

— McDavid has one goal and four points 5×5. He’s averaging 1.07 points/60 at 5×5 — the lowest season of his career was 2.62 in 2022. It is odd how little production we’ve seen from him 5×5. His 6.4 shots/60 is also the lowest of his career, which is a big part of his struggles.

— While he’s struggling to produce 5×5, his penalty kill play has been outstanding. McDavid and Draisaitl are two of the nine forwards in the NHL who’ve logged at least 15 minutes of PK time without allowing a goal against.

— Former Oilers Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg are off to slower starts than last year with the Blues. Holloway has 2-4-6 in 12 games while Broberg has 1-3-4. Both are still playing a lot with Broberg logging 22:07/game and Holloway has skated 19:23/game. Holloway has played the most minutes of any Blues forward.

— After the Chicago win, Connor McDavid said, “You guys can say what you want about him. We love him in there. We know his best is among the very, very, very best.”

Here’s the thing: I agree Bouchard’s best is among the best, but he wasn’t playing his best, nor close to it. The proper analysis is to analyze what happens each game. It’s fair to say Bouchard struggled in the first 12 games, while also remembering how elite he has been in the playoffs. I understand the captain standing up for his teammate, but being great in the playoffs doesn’t mean you get a free pass all season. I think it has been fair to say Bouchard had some rough games to start the season and he’s been unreal in the playoffs. Both are true. He needs to play better, and he said as much after the Rangers game.

— From 2015-2020, McDavid scored 3-8-11 in 15 games v. the Blues. They were the only team he didn’t average at least 1.00 point/game against in his first 15 games. But since 2021, McDavid has scored 7-15-22 in 12 games including seven multi-point games. He was only held off the scoresheet once. Like every other team, the Blues eventually couldn’t contain him.

Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
RNH-McDavid-Mangiapane
Savoie-Henrique-Frederic
Howard-Philp-Lazar

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Emberson

Pickard

Calvin Pickard starts tonight while Stuart Skinner will play tomorrow in Dallas. Pickard has had a rough start allowing 14 goals in four starts. He is 1-0 as an Oiler v. the Blues. Jack Roslovic has looked better every game he’s played and his line, along with Vasily Podkolzin and Draisaitl, has looked very good since being put together. They’ve only played 52 minutes together 5×5, but they’ve crushed teams outscoring them 5-0 and outshooting them 31-19. They are the Oilers’ top line right now.

Buchnevich-Thomas-Snuggerud
Schenn-Suter-Kyrou
Holloway-Dvorsky-Sundqvist
Toropchenko-Bjugstad-Joseph

Broberg-Parayko
Fowler-Faulk
Tucker-Kessel

Binnington

As mentioned, Thomas returns to the lineup, which, in theory, should give the Blues a boost, but Thomas only had only produced 0-3-3 at 5×5 in his first eight games before being injured. Maybe the time off will be a reset for him, but he hasn’t been as productive as they’d hoped. After 4 Nations to the end of the regular season last year, Thomas led the NHL with 40 points. They were hoping he’d start this season like that, but he’s yet to find his offensive stride.

They really miss Jake Neighbours. He was off to a great start and he’s out long-term. The most recent report was he will get re-assessed in five weeks, which doesn’t sound promising.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers add to the Blues’ woes and leave with a 4-3 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl scores. It is his 10th goal of the season and 10th career goal against St. Louis. They become the 22nd franchise he has double digit goals against.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers score first and it is a 5×5 goal in the first period. Edmonton has only had two games where they scored first, and the goal came 5×5: Noah Philp v. Vancouver and Trent Frederic in New York, and both goals came in the second period.