The Edmonton Oilers play their first game against the Utah Hockey Club tonight. It’s their lone visit this season and the timing couldn’t be better.
The Oilers are well-rested. They haven’t played since Saturday’s 6-2 victory over the New York Rangers, meanwhile, Utah returns home after a four-game trip with stops in Boston, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Montreal. Utah has played eight of their 11 games so far in November on the road and they return to Salt Lake with their offence struggling, the team taking too many penalties and a penalty kill leaking goals. Edmonton couldn’t ask for a better scenario to play their first game in six nights.
Utah is averaging the most times shorthanded/game in the month of November at 3.82. Meanwhile, the Oilers have taken the fewest penalties in the NHL this month averaging only 2.09/game and they haven’t allowed a power-play goal in their last seven games. After a dreadful first 15 games, the Oilers’ PK has been perfect going 16-for-16 the past seven games. The PK skates into Utah with loads of confidence.
You can’t say the same about the Oilers’ power play, however, but after a few days of practice and lots of video time, the PP couldn’t ask for a better opponent to face in their first game back. Edmonton still doesn’t generate enough power play opportunities. They rank 28th in PPO/game at 2.59, and in November they were 26th at 2.45/game. They need to force the opposition into bad spots on the ice, which will increase their chances of drawing a penalty. I’d target young Maveric Lamoureux. The rookie defender has taken 10 minor penalties in their last seven games. Unreal. He took one in his first eight games, but he’s been using frequent flyer miles to the sin bin lately.
Utah is taking many penalties and struggling to kill them off. They’ve allowed 10 PP goals this month and nine in their last eight games. If the Oilers’ power play can’t wake up against Utah, then their issues are worse than I thought. The Oilers PP needs a boost of confidence, and it is hard to find a more favourable weekend matchup than facing Utah tonight and Colorado (28th ranked) tomorrow.
Utah PK isn’t getting better. It’s actually worse in November than it was in October sitting at 76%. They use Mikhail Sergachev and Ian Cole the most on the blueline, while Olli Maata was paired with Michael Kesselring, but in the past few weeks, they’ve given Lamoureux more of an opportunity. The problem with that is lately Lamoureux is usually sitting in the penalty box. They did use Robert Bortuzzo with Maatta the past few games, and he is scheduled to play tonight after being injured in Montreal on Tuesday.
Utah’s blueline has been crushed by injuries. John Marino was acquired in the off-season, but he’s yet to play a game due to back surgery. They are hoping he is back in January or February. Sean Durzi played four games before injuring his shoulder and he’ll be sidelined for another three to five months. Playing without two of your top four defenders makes it very difficult to compete, especially when you don’t have high-end offensive talent.
Utah is banged up; they can’t kill of a penalty and now their offence is struggling with only 26 goals in 11 games in November. They rank 26th at 2.36 goals/game this month. They are down 0.75 goals/game from October.
The Oilers’ offence, despite a lacklustre power play, has woken up this month. Edmonton ranks seventh in goals/game in November with 3.36. Connor McDavid has 18 points in nine games this month, while Leon Draisaitl has 17 points. If the power play can get going, the Oilers could really do some damage.
Tonight is a game they should, and need to, win.

SNAPSHOTS…

— The Oilers woke up this past Sunday morning in a playoff spot holding down the second wildcard spot with 24 points.
This morning, they sit in fifth place. The teams around them played but didn’t win much, and after five days off, the Oilers aren’t much worse off, if any…
They now have games in hand on Vegas, Calgary and LA and Vancouver got some brutal news as Filip Hronek is going to miss a significant amount of time with an injury. When they return from their short three-game road trip they will play eight of their next nine games on home ice leading up to the Christmas break. Based on their skill and schedule they should be comfortably in a playoff spot when Santa delivers his toys.
— Zach Hyman took part in yesterday’s practice, but he won’t play tonight. He didn’t give a timeline for his return, but it is a good sign is he went on the road trip. If he was unlikely to play, he likely wouldn’t have gone on the trip. Rarely do injured players travel. He will skate again this morning, so there is a slim chance he could play tomorrow, but Oilers fans might not see him until Tuesday in Vegas.
— The Four Nations Cup rosters need to be submitted on Monday and will be announced next Wednesday. Connor McDavid was one of the original six named to Team Canada, no surprise, and I think Hyman will make the team. Cale Makar and Alex Pietrangelo are locks for the first two RD spots. Evan Bouchard, Dougie Hamilton, Noah Dobson, MacKenzie Weegar, Brandon Montour and Colton Parayko are in the mix for the third RD slot and/or the seventh D-man spot. Bouchard’s ability to elevate his game like he did the past two playoffs has to be a positive for him. His challenge is with Makar running the power play, they will want the other RD to penalty kill. Bouchard can do it, but he hasn’t in Edmonton and that might limit his chances of being named.
— I believe Mattias Ekholm should be a lock to make Team Sweden. He’s played great and they will have a strong blueline with Victor Hedman, Gustav Forsling, Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Anderson, Ekholm, Erik Karlsson and one of Hampus Lindholm or Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Naming Karlsson to the original six hasn’t looked great for them. He’s struggled, and it will be interesting to see where they play him in the tournament.
— Viktor Arvidsson was initially deemed day-to-day, but he’s missed six games and hasn’t played since November 12th. We haven’t seen him skate with the team yet, which means he will miss at least the next three games, and that will be three weeks since he played. He’s only played 70+ games three times in his first nine seasons, and when they return home from the road trip the most games he could play would be 73. His injury history is continuing in Edmonton. Not a great start.
— Our 14th annual Month of Giving begins on Monday. Here is a list of the items up for grabs next week. Thanks in advance for supporting all these worthwhile charities.

LINEUPS…

Oilers…

RNH –  McDavid –  Kapanen
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Brown
J. Skinner – Henrique –  Janmark
Caggiula – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Pickard
The Oilers recalled Drake Caggiula last night, so they have 12 forwards and will go with the same lineup as last Saturday’s victory over the Rangers. Vasily Podkolzin was flying in practice this week, not that he didn’t practice hard before, but after scoring his first goal of the season, and first in 20 months, he looked quicker. Likely due to the gorilla no longer being on his back. I won’t be surprised if we see him go on a bit of a scoring streak.
Calvin Pickard gets the start tonight as the Oilers will play Stuart Skinner against Colorado tomorrow. Pickard is 4-2 in his last four starts with a .915Sv% and 2.00 GAA.

Utah HC…

Keller – Hayton – Schmaltz
McBain – Cooley – Guenther
Maccelli – Bjugstad – Crouse
Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone
Sergachev – Maatta
Cole – Valamaki
Kesselring – Bortuzzo
Vejmelka
Too bad for the Oilers’ powerplay that rookie Maveric Lamoureux isn’t dressed. Not a big surprise considering how many penalties he’s taken lately. The Oilers are 5-1-1 when scoring first this month and 1-3 when they allow the first goal, while Utah is 4-3-1 when scoring first in November and 0-3 when allowing the first goal. The Oilers should have fresh legs and need to come out firing.
Last year the Oilers also had a five-day break between games from December 1st-5th and in their first game out of the break they crushed Carolina 6-1. Will we see a similar performance tonight?

TONIGHT…

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers benefit from the rest and continue to play well on the road and win 5-2.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid scores a goal and now officially has a goal vs. all 31 other NHL teams. Draisaitl also scores.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Podkozlin scores in consecutive games for the second time in his career, and the first time since his rookie season in 2021-22.

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