You could have asked every Edmonton Oilers fans before the season began which aspect of the team concerned them the most, and not one would have answered the power play. Not one.

The Oilers’ power play has been the epitome of reliability for the past five NHL seasons. From 2020-2024 the Oilers had the best combined PP% at 28.5%. Tampa Bay was second at 24.9%, Toronto third at 24.4% and the New York Rangers fourth at 24%. Every other team was at least 5% worse than Edmonton.

In that five-year window, the Oilers tied the New York Islanders (1978-1982) for the best PP% over any five years in NHL history, and the Oilers had the best single-season PP at 32.4% in 2023. This power play has been all-world for five years, but suddenly, it stinks.

It is easily the most unexpected result of any team through the first quarter of the season. After five games, 10 games and even 15 games many felt patience was the best action. It made sense. This group would figure it out, because they’ve done exactly that the past five seasons. But this year, they’ve yet to find their man advantage mojo.

The Oilers only have nine power play goals through 22 games. Only St.Louis and the New York Islanders, both at eight, have scored fewer PP goals. The Oilers haven’t scored more than one PP goal in any game this season. Their PP ranks 26th at 15.8%.

In the 373 games between 2020 to 2024 the Oilers had two games with four PP goals, 10 games with three PP goals and 72 games with two PP goals. That totalled 22.5% of their games (84 of 373) where they scored two or more PP goals. This year they sit at 0%. Their PP is struggling, and Kris Knoblauch and Glenn Gulutzan have to start considering other options.

Why is it struggling?

The easy answer is they aren’t getting enough shots on net. Here’s a look at their power play opportunities (PPO/GP) per game, goals, shots, shots/60 and PP% the past five seasons.

The Oilers scored a lot, because they were a high volume shot on goal PP unit.

Now look at the numbers this season.

They are 31st in shots/60 at only 39.49. The top-three teams in PP% this season are Winnipeg (33.9%), New Jersey (31.5%) and Vegas (30.9%). They rank 12th (54.6), 1st (71.56) and 3rd (62.18) respectively in SF/60. There is a direct correlation between successful high shot volume and a high PP%. Sure, there are the odd outliers, as the Oilers were to an extent in 2020 when they were 16th in SF/60, but 1st in PP%, but for the most part high volume shooting from your forwards leads to PP success.

Since 2020, the Oilers’ first unit has had Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as mainstays. The net front presence has had Zach Hyman, Alex Chiasson and James Neal, while Oscar Klefbom, Tyson Barrie and Evan Bouchard were the main defencemen. Here are their Shots/60 over those years.

Draisaitl and McDavid are the most skilled, and they shoot the most as they should. The power play runs through them, as it should, and they’ve shot a lot and scored a lot. In those five seasons Draisaitl led the NHL with 108 PP goals. Sam Reinhart was second with 74 and Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad were tied for third with 72. McDavid was 11th with 58. McDavid led the league with 239 PP points while Draisaitl was second with 218. Nathan MacKinnon was third with 165. RNH was 10th with 146.

Draisaitl and McDavid combined to average between 33-40 SF/60 the past four seasons. They were just over 27.5/60 in 2020.

Now look at the first 22 games this season.

McDavid is close to where he normally is around 14-15, except for the 2023 season, but Draisaitl is shooting at half his normal rate. Teams have focused on taking away the seam pass to him on the side, but the Oilers need to adjust. It isn’t just him though — RNH, Hyman and Bouchard are all shooting at much lower rates. The entire unit it out of sync.

And the concern is that they’ve haven’t improved.

The first six games of the season the PP struggled mightily going 1-for-15 (6.7%).

In the next six games they went 4-for-18 (22.2%).

The next two games they only had a total of two chances and went 0-for-2.

Their past eight games they are 4-for-22 (18.2%).

They’ve only scored a PP goal in consecutive games twice all season. They scored vs. Carolina and Pittsburgh on October 22nd and 25th and against the Canucks and Islanders on November 9th and 12th. They entered this five-day break going 1-for-11 in their last four games. They’ve been unable to find a rhythm all season.

Gulutzan and Knoblauch have more time to look at video these past few days. They can really dig into what isn’t working and show the players. It is clear the opposition is focused on taking away the passes to Draisaitl on the left side and down low to Hyman. They are content to give RNH and Bouchard space to shoot or Bouchard. But RNH is unwilling to shoot, and Bouchard has struggled getting pucks through when he chooses to fire. You don’t want Bouchard shooting too much. Very few high-end power plays have a defender as a high-volume shooter. The odd one can — New Jersey does with Dougie Hamilton this season — but over the past few years, teams who have their defenceman firing a lot of pucks are rarely the most successful.

The Oilers need to adapt and incorporate a different strategy. They’ve been very good at this the past few seasons, always unveiling a new wrinkle to keep the opposition guessing. We haven’t see that so far this season.

They need to find ways to get Draisaitl the puck more. He’s their best shooter. He needs the puck more in a good shooting position, and they might need to look at moving him away from the low sharp-angle shot.

Convince RNH to shoot. If he doesn’t, they will have to look at giving Jeff Skinner a try in his spot. Ideally, they’d want a right shot there, so they’d have a one-timer option on both sides of the ice, but RNH has played there the past five years, and they’ve been the best PP in the NHL. So a right shot would be a luxury, not a necessity.

More patience. I believe the coaching staff is at the end of the line for patience. This group earned the right to play their way out of this funk. I completely understand why they haven’t changed the personnel on the first unit to this point. But they can’t keep waiting. I can see a scenario where the coach gives them both games this weekend to see where they are at. If they have some success they will stay together, but if the drought continues in Utah and Colorado, then I’d look at making a change before Tuesday’s game in Vegas.

Utah is 22nd on the penalty kill at 77.4% while Colorado is 28th at 71.9%. Colorado is 75% in its last 10 games, while Utah is 75.6%. Neither team has improved recently on the PK, and if the Oilers can’t find success against them, the coaching staff must make a change.

The first unit doesn’t want to make a change, but it is up to them to get results. The Oilers’ PK struggled early, but it has been perfect the past seven games. The 5×5 play has been consistent, although a lack of finish has hurt them. But the PP is the main element stuck in neutral.

The power play was the most dangerous weapon in the NHL for five seasons.

It shouldn’t be this bad.

It is time it wakes up.

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