It’s Saturday night, and the Edmonton Oilers are in Denver to take on the Colorado Avalanche in the late slot on Hockey Night in Canada. After a big 4-3 OT win in Utah last night, the Oilers will be looking to grab another big road win to help climb back up the Pacific Division standings.
I’m so excited about this hockey game. Yesterday, 50 of us made our way to Denver for the #NationVacation, and I am pumped to watch the boys play behind enemy lines and check another barn off my 32-team list. Not only is it fun to watch the Oilers away from home, but doing it with a group of 50 amazing people on the #NationVacation as we’re doing today is another level of special.
After making our way down to Denver at various points on Friday, it’s been so much fun to watch people meet for the first time or reunite after past Nation Vacations. With smiles on their faces and good vibes in their hearts, it didn’t take long to see how excited everyone was to be down here. Not only is the group ready to go for tonight’s game, but we gave’r a good test drive at the viewing party last night at DNVR for the Edmonton/Utah game.
Now that we’ve had a night to get to know each other with the Edmonton vs. Utah appetizer win, game faces are on as everyone prepares eagerly for the main event. For the first time this season, the Oilers take on an Avalanche team that has been anything but steady so far. Much like our own squad, the Avs haven’t played with much consistency despite fan expectations that they compete for another Stanley Cup. Sound familiar?
Yet, even though the fanbases expect the moon, both teams come into Saturday’s matchup closer to .500 records than anyone believes they should be. Like the Oilers, the Avalanche are moving the puck in the right direction more often than not, but also, like Edmonton, it’s what happens when the play comes the other way that can be a problem.
With a .882 save percentage at 5v5, the Avalanche haven’t gained any traction because they can’t outscore their problems in net. Even though they’ve scored 12 more goals than the Oilers have, they’ve also given up 17 more. The result is a -9 goal differential that hangs mostly on defensive mistakes and Georgiev and Annunen’s subpar goaltending. And clearly, the Avs felt the same way because they just made a trade this morning that sent Justus Annunen to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Scott Wedgewood.
That move shows how desperate the Avs are to clean up their goaltending. If the Oilers are going to win this hockey game, they’ll need to put pucks on net. They need to test Wedgewood early and often. I’m talking about shooting from the parking lot if there’s a chance, but the caveat is that they also need to have players crashing the crease. Chances are that Annunen will leave some garbage around the net, and the Oilers need to have people in the dirty areas available to clean it all up.
At the other end of the rink, the Oilers must take care of the puck. Even though the Avs’ record has been mediocre so far, it doesn’t mean they won’t still burn you quite handily if given the chance. Mistakes will get punished, and I’d strongly suggest that Edmonton plays a simple game instead of trying to get too fancy. I’m talking about puck support, quick passes, and a north-south-shoot-crash mentality.
Basically, what I’m saying is what everyone reading this already knows: The Oilers need to give their best effort if they’re going to beat the Avalanche. Regardless of how poorly their goaltending has been through the first quarter of the season, they’re a dangerous team that can score en masse. That presents a significant challenge for our boys, even though both sides are coming into this one in the second half of a back-to-back.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
THE NUMBERS
OILERS | AVALANCHE | |
RECORD | 12-9-2 | 13-11-0 |
WIN/LOSS STREAK | W2 | L1 |
LAST 10 GAMES | 6-3-1 | 7-3-0 |
GOALS FOR | 68 | 80 |
GOALS AGAINST | 72 | 89 |
POWER PLAY% | 18.3 | 27.6 |
PENALTY KILL% | 71.4 | 71.0 |
AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 33.2 | 29.8 |
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 26.1 | 25.6 |
TEAM SAVE% | .902 | .882 |
CORSI FOR% | 55.05 | 54.30 |
PDO | 0.972 | .964 |
TEAM SHOOTING% | 6.96 | 8.15 |
EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 53.08 | 53.22 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
LINE COMBINATIONS
Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Kapanen
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Brown
J. Skinner – Henrique – Janmark
Caggiula – Ryan – Perry
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Brown
J. Skinner – Henrique – Janmark
Caggiula – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
With Zach Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson still on the shelf with their mystery ailments, the Oilers, once again, need other players to step up just like we got last night in Utah. I’m not even saying Hyman and Arvidsson had been lighting the world on fire through the 20 and 16 games they’ve played, respectively, but that doesn’t change the fact that Edmonton needs to give McDavid and Draisaitl some scoring support.
Avalanche
Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin
Kovalenko – Mittelstadt – Rantanen
Kiviranta – Ivan – O’Connon
Bradley – Kelly – Wagner
Kovalenko – Mittelstadt – Rantanen
Kiviranta – Ivan – O’Connon
Bradley – Kelly – Wagner
Toews – Makar
Girard – Manson
De Haan – Malinksi
Girard – Manson
De Haan – Malinksi
Wedgewood?
I said it above, and I’ll say it again here: The Oilers need to shoot from the parking lot and crash the crease with their sticks on the ice to clean up whatever garbage gets left behind. Given how shaky the Avs’ goaltending has been, getting pucks on net with bodies in front seems like a solid strategy to me, and I very much hope the Oilers are on board with it. Goals don’t always have to be pretty, fellas.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
The Colorado Avalanche are under-achieving. They’re 13-11 through 24 games, which is not where any of the pundits saw them at this stage. They gave up another five-goal game on Friday night against division rival Dallas, which they seem to be doing almost every game these days. Everyone in Avalanche nation would agree that the team defense has been underwhelming, to say the least.When looking at some of the underlying numbers, however, it’s not quite time to panic.The Avs have given up 55 goals at 5 on 5. This seems like a high number and the immediate rush to judgment would be to blame the defensive play. That’s partly accurate, but their expected goals against during that same time is only 43.3 – a stark difference.Their save percentage on shots on goal at 5 on 5 is 88.25%, bad enough for second worst in the NHL, in front of only Montreal. The combined save percentage on unblocked shots is only 92%, also bad enough for second-worst in the league. The save percentage above expected is -1.66%, which means the goaltending has failed to save 1.6 shots per game that were expected saves.This doesn’t bode well for the team overall, obviously.Further numbers continue to tell a story about where the blame lies. The team expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 is only 2.18. The goals against per 60 minutes is currently at 2.79.The Avalanche stand fourth in the league in rebound shots above expected at 9 per 5 on 5. This stat shows that the defense is playing well in 5 on 5 and keeping the net area clear after shots. They’re also closing on offensive players if a rebound is allowed, minimizing extra shot attempts.The Burgundy and Blue have only given up 39 high danger-shots at 5 on 5 this season. That number is good for fifth in the league. The defense has been doing its job at keeping other offenses out of high value positions while at 5 on 5.
TONIGHT…
Game Day Prediction: For the second straight time, the Oilers pick up a win in the second half of their back-to-back set. Final score 6-1 Oilers.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Connor McDavid heater continues. Give me another two-point night.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Ty Emberson picks up his 2nd NHL goal with a seeing-eye wrister from the point that makes its way through traffic and past the goalie.
