After putting together their best offensive night on Thursday in a 9-4 win over the Kraken, the Oilers look to keep the momentum going in the third game of this five-game homestand against the Winnipeg Jets. At 12-11-5, the boys are still trying to find traction in a season that has offered almost none, but that win over Seattle felt different. The forwards were on the same page, the puck movement was crisp, and they finally looked like the team we’ve been waiting for for two months. It was the first time in weeks that the Oilers looked to be in complete control of the puck. Now the challenge is proving they can keep the momentum going.

Winnipeg rolls into town in the second half of a back-to-back set after beating Buffalo 4-1 on Friday. The Jets are 14-12-1 and struggling with only two wins in their last eight games. Even so, I don’t expect them to be an easy out. The Jets don’t overwhelm teams offensively, scoring 3.04 goals per game, but they don’t give much back either. Their 2.89 goals against per game marks a significant advantage over the Oilers’ 3.50 goals against. Even without Connor Hellebuyck, they still maintain tight gaps, a clean structure, and avoid giving up freebies. If the Oilers fall back into the loose, disorganized habits that have cost them points all year, Winnipeg has the ability to slow the game down and squeeze the life out of it.

At the same time, some of the numbers I’m looking at make me feel like we’re in a good spot. Edmonton’s power play continues to be a weapon at 32.4 percent, and the penalty kill has steadied at 80.5 percent. Winnipeg is at 21.5 percent on the PP and 82.2 on the PK, which suggests that special teams should tilt this matchup in our favour if the Oilers stay disciplined and keep the puck moving in the right direction at even strength. At five-on-five, Edmonton still gives up too much, but I’m hopeful that the tighter defensive trend we’re seeing lately can start to bring their GAA down. The Oilers generate more than enough offence at 3.21 goals per game, but their issues this season have almost never been about scoring. It’s the details, the breakdowns, the moments where the structure collapses. The good news is that they haven’t been sabotaging themselves over the last few games. There’s been real improvement.

And that’s why tonight matters. The Seattle win wasn’t only fun to watch but it was a statement victory for a team that desperately needed one. We all needed that win. They supported the puck, mostly limited the chaos, and didn’t hand goals back the other way after nearly duffing their three-goal lead in the first period. Mistakes were made, but they were corrected. Now the boys need to bring that same level of urgency again against a team that won’t hand them anything even though they’re struggling. This homestand is a chance to gain some of the ground lost during the first two months of the season, and I’m bullish on Edmonton’s chances to start building a streak. Winnipeg is coming in tired, starting their third stringer, and playing their second game in two nights. The Oilers should have the legs, they should have the jump, and that means they should have the advantage.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Savoie
Mangiapane – Henrique – Janmark
Frederic – Lazar – Tomasek

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Regula
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

The Oilers got 12 points out of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman on Thursday, and I’m expecting the big dogs to keep the party going here against the Jets. What was even more impressive, though, was how the third line of Mangiapane, Henrique, and Janmark was also able to get in on the action, and I’m hopeful that having a bit of success can be a step in the right direction for a group that has been so snake-bitten lately. The only notable change is that David Tomasek slots in for Connor Clattenburg on the fourth line. Clattenburg had to get stitches above his eye on Thursday against Seattle after taking a scary-looking high stick late in the game.

Connor – Scheifele – Vilardi
Namestnikov – Toews – Perfetti
Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo
Koepke – Barron – Pearson

Morrissey – Demelo
Samberg – Pionk
Stanley – Salomonsson

Milic

The Jets played the Sabres last night, so we won’t have any lineup updates until closer to puck drop. That said, the line combos above are from Friday’s game, with the sole exception that Thomas Milic is likely to get the start. Who is Thomas Milic, you might be asking? A goalie who would be making only his 3rd NHL start. If ever there was something that makes me nervous, it’s the Oilers’ history of making ‘who the hell is that’ goalies look like Vezina candidates, and we’ll have to keep an eye on how that goes here on Saturday.

Game Day Prediction:  The Oilers keep their run going with a strong showing and a 4-2 victory with the empty-netter.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Oilers’ power play keeps chugging along, scoring two of the Oilers’ four goals in the game.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Andrew Mangiapane scores his first goal in 15 games.