Edmonton plays eight of their next nine games on home ice and they need to play much better than they have through their first 12 home games.

The Oilers are 5-6-1 and rank 26th in points and points percentage, they are 25th on the power play (14.3 percent), 28th on the penalty kill (67.7 percent), 27th in goals scored and 19th in goals against.

It has been an ugly two months on home ice. The Oilers have the fifth-best road points percentage, and there is little reason they should not be a much more dominant home team. They tied the New York Rangers for second-most home points last year with 60, and they have the 5th most combined in 2023 and 2024, yet so far this season they’ve struggled.

They weren’t good early on last year either going 1-5, but they rebounded and were 27-4-4 over their final 35 home games.

They won only two of their first eight games this season, but they are 3-1 in their last four and their most recent home game was their best performance of the season when they dominated the Rangers 6-2. They’ve shown some signs of returning to being a dominant home team and that must continue tonight.

They’ve only scored four PP goals all season at home, and getting the PP on track at home would be a great start. They led the NHL at 32.8 percent last season. The PP was their driver on many nights, and even when they didn’t score, they’d create chances and get the crowd into the game and the momentum would carry over into subsequent shifts. The PP has rarely done that this season, and with the return of Zach Hyman to the lineup tonight, you’d hope it could give the PP and the team a much-needed offensive jolt.

— I outlined yesterday how the Oilers offence continues to be a concern due to their lack of quality chances in tight. They aren’t getting shots from around the net nearly as often, and only forced Adin Hill to make two rebound saves the entire game. It is an issue, and today I got the exact numbers from Sport Logiq to back up what my eyes were telling me.

— Last year the Oilers ranked 1st in inner slot shots, and they were 2nd in slot shots and rebound shots. They created a lot around the net and a main reason they scored so much was where their shots came from.

This season they aren’t around the net nearly as often. They are 23rd in rebound chances, 13th in inner slot shots and 5th in slot shots. They are still decent in creating slot shots, but the drop on rebound attempts and inner slot shots is glaring. They need more traffic in front of the net.

— At 5×5, Edmonton leads the NHL in SF/60 at 32.49 and in overall shots with 680 shots, but they are 21st in actual goals with 47 and 23rd in GF/60 at 2.25. It is pretty clear why their goal scoring is down. It isn’t just bad luck. They aren’t getting enough shots from the most dangerous area (inner slot) and they don’t have enough traffic to screen goalies or get rebound chances. Until they change, no one should expect them to “regress to the mean.” Not all shots are created equal, and right now Edmonton has too many low danger shots.

— Hyman averaged 3.625 shots/game last season. He is at 2.55 this season. He’s their best net-front player and when he’s around the net more and getting more shots, their goal totals will increase. And in case you’re curious, he isn’t missing the net more of having way more shots blocked. Last year he averaged a total of 2.5 shots missed or blocked and this year he’s averaging 2.6. They need to get the puck to Hyman around the net more and he has to get a few more rebound opportunities.

— The power play plays a big role in the lower inner slot and rebound chances, simply because they aren’t getting close to as many shots as they did the past few seasons. Fewer shots equals fewer second chance opportunities. Edmonton doesn’t draw many PPs, so that plays a factor.

— Oilers should have no trouble getting up for tonight’s game. Columbus spanked them 6-1 after Connor McDavid was injured on his first shift. Tonight, McDavid will be honoured for scoring his 1,000 point earlier this season, so the motivation to win on their Captains’s special night against a team who crushed them is obvious.

— The ceremony will delay puck drop a bit. For those going to the game be sure to be in your seats just after seven and for those watching the ceremony will be televised.

Pickard

Calvin Pickard will make his ninth start of the season. He is 5-3 and has more than three goals once, his first start against Chicago. He has been very solid all season. Hyman returns to the top line, and Connor Brown will start the game on the fourth line as Kasperi Kapanen moves from McDavid’s wing down to Draisaitl’s.

The battle of the backups as Daniil Tarasov gets the start for CBJ. Tarasov has struggled with a 4.04 GAA and  .861 save percentage in eight starts, but he is 3-4-1 despite allowing 32 goals. Why, because the Blue Jackets can score. They rank 8th in GF/GP at 3.46, but they’ve allowed 3.50. Their games are entertaining and Edmonton saw first hand how Columbus can light you up if you aren’t ready. The Blue Jackets have scored 4+ goals 10 times and they’ve allowed 4+ 13 times. They are not afraid to exchange chances.

Huge thanks to Scott and Brian for their amazing bids on the Mr. Derk package, and for Sterling to offer two packages and an extra coat due to the high bids. Amazing. And thanks to Sterling for his bid on the Ranch Golf package. Unreal.

DAY Four: 🎁 Associate Membership at Glendale Golf & Country Club

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers get back to .500 on home ice with a 6-3 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Ekholm scores his first EV goal of the season. He has a career-most six goals v. Columbus.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: On the night he gets honoured for being the fourth quickest player to 1,000 points, McDavid picks up four points.

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