Less than 24 hours after duffing another one versus the Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday at Rogers Place, we’re back for the second half of a back-to-back set as the Oilers will take on the Calgary Flames in the first Battle of Alberta of the season.
I don’t know what’s going on with the NHL schedule, but I can’t be the only one surprised that the Oilers had a back-to-back set on the first weekend of the year. Not that I mind since I missed watching the boys play even though we had the shortest off-season most of us can remember. If anything, having the Oilers monopolize my weekend was a gift. Toss in the fact that tonight’s matchup marks the first Battle of Alberta of the season, and you’ve got yourself the potential for a lovely little Sunday.
Of course, the Oilers and Flames aren’t exactly entering this year’s head-to-head with the same expectations. Our side comes into the BOA with Stanley Cup aspirations, while most people in hockey generally agree that the Flames will be generally terrible. Try to find someone who isn’t a Flames fan who honestly believes Calgary can get within a $10 cab ride of a playoff spot — you can’t do it. I’ve looked, and those people aren’t out there.
Unfortunately, we can’t even make fun of the Flames right now because Calgary is winning their early games, while the Oilers most certainly are not. If you look at the results from the first two games each team played, you’d probably think Edmonton was just kicking off their rebuild because the team down the highway is engaged and playing some good hockey. Everyone knows we’re obviously in the early days of this thing, but this slow start wasn’t supposed to happen again.
Then again, maybe a date with the Flames is precisely what the Oilers need to get themselves going. I mean, if they can’t get themselves fired up for a divisional rival, then what are we even doing here? Right? Anybody? All I know for sure is that the Oilers will need to be a lot tighter with the details if they’re going to avoid going 0-3 on the season because every mistake they make right now seems to be ending up in the back of the net. From the crease outward, the Oilers need to level up their execution and intensity in a very real way.
If the Oilers are going to avoid another loss, they must be ready to go from the opening draw. Getting their legs moving early is always essential on the second half of a back-to-back weekend, but I also recognize that it can be tricky when you’re playing a second game in less than 24 hours. The major difference here is that the Flames are in the exact same scenario. In fact, Calgary’s game against the Flyers ended later last night than ours did, leaving no room for excuses about being tired or needing time to get going.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
FLAMES
RECORD
0-2-0
2-0-0
WIN/LOSS STREAK
L2
W2
GOALS FOR
2
12
GOALS AGAINST
11
8
POWER PLAY%
25.0
37.5
PENALTY KILL%
16.7
62.5
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
34.0
29.0
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
20.0
32.0
TEAM SAVE%
.829
.935
CORSI FOR%
68.95
46.56
PDO
0.846
1.065
TEAM SHOOTING%
1.69
13.04
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
65.28
47.09
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
  • Sunday’s matchup marks the first of three meetings between the Oilers and Flames. These two teams will meet again on November 3rd at the Saddledome before wrapping up the season series at Rogers Place on March 29th. Looking back over the last few seasons, the Oilers have won five of the last six regular season meetings vs. the Flames and nine of the last 11, including post season matchups from a couple of years back.
  • The Oilers and Flames met four times during the 2023-24 season, with our boys locking in a pair of wins at the Saddledome and one at the Heritage Classic, while the Flames won the lone game at Rogers Place.
  • Corey Perry leads all active Oilers in career games (73) versus the Flames, while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are tied amongst active skaters in career points with 57.
  • The Oilers have given up power play goals on five of their six shorthanded situations, which ranks dead last in the NHL through the first couple of games. Even though it’s fair to expect this number to improve in time, it’s pretty tough to win when your penalty kill is basically a free pass on the Bingo board.

LINEUPS…

Oilers ***UPDATED***

J. Skinner – McDavid – Hyman
RNH – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Podkolzin – Henrique – Brown
Janmark – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Dermott
Kulak – Stecher
Skinner
By no means should anyone be panicking about how the first two games have gone, but it’s also fair to suggest that the Oilers need to dial it in. The first place they need to do that is between the pipes. In their first two losses, Skinner and Pickard have both had save percentages well under .900, and those are tough numbers to overcome, especially when you’re struggling to score goals. If Edmonton is going to snap their skid before it turns into a streak, Stuart Skinner will need to come up with a much better performance than he offered against Winnipeg in the season opener.
***UPDATE*** Kris Knoblauch pulled out the blender with his top six line combinations, moving Jeff Skinner up with Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins down with Leon Draisaitl. 
On defence, Ty Emberson comes out in favour of Troy Stecher, who will be making his 2024-25 season debut. 

Flames

Honzek – Kadri – Kuzmenko
Huberdeau – Pospisil – Mantha
Zary – Backlund – Coleman
Lomberg – Kirkland – Klapka
Weegar – Miromanov
Bahl – Andersson
Bean – Pachal
Vladar
As much as it pains me to admit, the Flames have done an excellent job of converting on their chances through their first two games of the season, and that presents a challenge for an Oilers team that has been porous defensively to say the least. If the Oilers keep coughing the puck up, there’s a good chance the Flames will burn them for those mistakes, meaning that puck management will be crucial for the skaters wearing blue and orange.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Flamesnation.ca:
Given Dustin Wolf started against the Flyers, we’re expecting to see Dan Vladar in net, backed up by Wolf. Saturday’s extra skaters were Matt Coronato, Tyson Barrie and Joel Hanley, so we’ll see if head coach Ryan Huska makes any tweaks.
Just as everyone predicted, the Flames head into the Battle of Alberta with a sterling record. And moreover, they won two very different games: a dramatic comeback after going down 4-1 in the first period against Vancouver, and a pretty composed win where they never trailed against Philadelphia. The Flames have gotten some contributions from most areas of their lineup, and both sides of special teams, and while there are definitely things to tidy up – they’ve had iffy starts in two straight – but they’ve deserved the four points they’ve earned.
While it’s a bit early to declare the rebuild over, it’s a great start for a group that a lot of the hockey world completely wrote off over the summer.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers wrap up their weekend with a convincing 7-2 win over the Flames, bragging their first victory of the year and calming the Nation down for the next couple of days.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Oilers’ PK will give up another goal, making it three straight games where the penalty killers have gotten tagged.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Jeff Skinner picks up his first multi-goal game as an Oiler, and he gets both of them at even strength too.

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