The Edmonton Oilers have played 23 home games this season. They’ve won 12 and are only 12-7-4 and have outscored teams 83-74.

In the three previous seasons, the Oilers had the eighth most home wins in the NHL and were three back of the fifth most. They have been a very good to dominant team on home ice (in 2024, when they went 28-9-4), but lately they’ve struggled to win.

Kris Knoblauch felt his team wasn’t ready to play against New Jersey, and it cost them two points. Tonight is game three of a season-long eight-game homestand, and Edmonton needs to be better and more engaged on home ice.

The January schedule has Edmonton playing 11 games at home and four on the road. They went 3-0-1 on the road, which is great, but they are only 2-3-1 at home thus far. Edmonton was 4-0-2 in its first six home games, but then they got pounded 9-1 by Colorado and that started them on a run of where they’ve only won eight of 18 home games. They have lost their last four home games against Eastern Conference teams, and they face the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight and the Washington Capitals on Saturday.

The Oilers need to rediscover a killer instinct on home ice, especially against non-conference teams. The Oilers have played nine games against Eastern teams, and they’ve allowed the first goal eight times. I don’t expect the Oilers to score first or be the hungrier team every game. Both teams are paid to play and want to win, but they need to be much better at home this season against Eastern opponents. You can’t be chasing the game that often. The Penguins are one of the better road teams in the NHL this season. They’ve scored first in 16 of 24 road games, and they rank 9th in points percentage on the road and they have the third-best GAA at 2.50. They’ve allowed two goals or fewer in half of their road games.

Head coach Dan Muse has the Penguins playing well on the road, especially lately as the Penguins are 5-1 in their last six road games and have outscored teams 26-13. Their only blemish was a 1-0 loss in Boston. They have four victories by three or more goals. The Penguins have moved ahead of Edmonton in the standings with 59 points in 49 games compared to Edmonton’s 58 points in 51 games. Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the NHL over the past month going 10-3-2. They rank fourth in wins and P%.

The Oilers need to be ready from the opening puck drop. They need to be ready to play and be emotionally engaged against a non-conference opponent.

They need to start piling up some wins at home, to keep pace with Vegas and hopefully earn first place in the Pacific Division. Over the past two seasons, Edmonton has been one of the best home teams in the playoffs with a record of 15-7. They were 14-11 on the road, which is solid, but a much lower winning% than at home. Edmonton has Stanley Cup aspirations, and while earning home ice advantage doesn’t guarantee them a championship, it can make their path to a ring easier, and any small advantage in the playoffs is one you should try and obtain.

Edmonton has 18 home games remaining, including six to finish out this homestand. They need to win more than 52% of their home games down the stretch and increasing their intensity, especially against eastern opponents, should lead to more victories.

— Stuart Skinner lost his first start with Pittsburgh, against the Oilers, but in his last eight starts he’s been good with a .922 save percentage and 1.89 GAA. He’s allowed one goal in five of those eight starts. He and Arturs Silovs have split time evenly as Silovs is expected to start his eighth game since December 21st tonight while Skinner made his eighth start last night in Calgary. Tristan Jarry and Skinner faced their former teams the first time these teams met in December, but it doesn’t look like we will see a rematch tonight.

— The Penguins are 10-3-2 in their last 15 games outscoring opponents 56-36. They’ve been better defensively, and Edmonton is getting a bit of a break as they face Silovs instead of Skinner. In their last 15 games Skinner is 6-2 and Silovs is 4-1-2. Skinner has a .922 save percentage and 1.89GAA while Silovs has a .896 save percentage and 2.64 GAA.

— The Oilers are 14-5-4 in the game after a loss. They struggle to win three in a row, but have been pretty good at not extending losing streaks. Edmonton is now 0-7-2 when trying to win three in a row, and not surprisingly, they have allowed the first goal in eight of those games. Edmonton is a woeful 4-17-4 when allowing the first goal, and they are 21-4-1 when scoring first. They win 21 of 26 when scoring first and only four of 25 when trailing first. In the five regulation losses after losing the previous game, the Oilers allowed the first goal in all five games. It is pretty clear how important the first goal is tonight, and most games, for the Oilers.

— The Oilers have won four consecutive home games against the Penguins. Pittsburgh hasn’t won in Edmonton since December 20th, 2019. Oddly, the Penguins had won six consecutive games in Edmonton prior to this four-game losing skid.

— Matt Savoie ended his 16-game goal drought against the Devils. It was the longest goal drought of his hockey career at any level. He did go 10 games last year in Bakersfield, but the NHL is a different beast and for many young players a lengthy goalless streak often occurs. Savoie wasn’t playing poorly during the drought, but he did miss the net a few times on some of his best chances, which is often a sign of trying to be perfect with your shot. The goal was a huge relief for him, and don’t be surprised to see him get back to scoring more frequently. He did have six goals in the previous 22 games prior to the slump. Slumps happen in the NHL, and it can be challenging, especially for skilled players who have never gone that long without a goal. It is a hard, but good learning experience, and I thought Savoie played quite well despite not scoring.

— Isaac Howard hasn’t scored in his last 16 games with the Oilers, and like Savoie a goal would be very welcoming. The hardest part is not getting frustrated and letting it get you down, but that is easier said than done.