With a victory tonight, Edmonton can sweep the season series against Colorado for the first time since 2017. The Oilers won the first two games this season in Colorado, and both times they were playing the second half of a back-to-back. They won 4-1 on November 30th, after winning in Utah the night prior, and they won 4-3 on January 16th after defeating Minnesota the night earlier. Edmonton trailed 3-0 only 11:48 into the game in January and it looked like Colorado was going to crush them, but the Oilers regrouped and got a late first-period goal from Viktor Arvidsson, then two goals in the second period before Evan Bouchard scored the winner with 6:55 remaining in the third. It was the grittiest win of the season for the Oilers.

Tonight, the Avalanche are playing on the backend of a back-to-back after winning 4-2 in Calgary, and the skate into Edmonton winners of three of their last four games, while the Oilers have two in a row, despite some sloppy play. Connor McDavid mentioned their energy level hasn’t been where they would like it, and part of that was due to some players battling illness and the games not having much energy or passion in them. He’s right. There hasn’t been much animosity in any recent game, outside of the Brayden Schenn/Mattias Ekholm big hits.

Tonight, the Oilers should have no problem getting up for the Avalanche. They are a skilled, fast team. Both teams have respect for one another, and like the challenge they each pose.

The Avs’ big guns took over the game in the second period in Calgary last night, after a sluggish first frame. Nathan MacKinnon had three assists, Cale Makar produced 1-1-2 and newly acquired Martin Necas scored twice and added an assist. There is no shortage of star power on the ice tonight.

MacKinnon leads the NHL with 83 points, while Leon Draisaitl is second with 81, and he has two games in hand. Connor McDavid sits fourth in scoring with 71 points (he’s missed six games), Necas is tied for 10th with 63 points while Cale Makar is 15th with 60 and leads all D-men in scoring. When these two teams meet there is usually no shortage of high-speed and high-skill plays.

Both teams are playing their final game before the 4 Nations Face-Off, and both will want to head away on a positive note. It might not be the most polished game, but I’d be surprised if it lacks excitement.

— A hot topic online and around the water cooler in Edmonton is allowing a goal on the first three shots of the game. Some believe it is a weakness of Stuart Skinner. Is it? Let’s look at some numbers.

Last night the NHL had nine games. Four of them saw a team allow a goal in the first three shots. McKenzie Blackwood (COL), Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA), Joey Daccord (SEA) and Connor Ingram (UTA) all allowed a goal within the first three shots of the game. Colorado, Florida and Utah won their games, while Seattle lost to Toronto.

This season a team has allowed a goal within the first three shots in 406 of the league’s 869 games. That is 46.7% of games played this season. However, there has been a total of 438 goals within the first three shots, which means 32 games have seen a team allow two goals within the first three shots. Edmonton hasn’t had that this season.

Here are the starting goalies who have allowed the most goals within the first three shots of the game.

Igor Shesterkin 13.

Stuart Skinner 12.

Andrei Vasilevskiy 11.

MacKenzie Blackwood 11.

Philippe Grubauer 11.

Jake Oettinger 10.

Sergei Bobrovsky 9

Adin Hill 9.

Shesterkin and Grubauer are the only goalies on non-playoff teams. I can understand why it irks some Oilers fans that Skinner has allowed 12, but it happens more often across the NHL than many think. Skinner isn’t doing it at a massively higher rate than some of the other top starters.

— Calvin Pickard, however, has done it at a much higher rate. He’s allowed 11 goals in the first three shots, and he’s only made 18 starts. But the Oilers are 9-2 in those games. It hasn’t hurt them as much as some like to claim. It isn’t ideal, but I will go through each goal for an article next week, to see how many are on the goalie and how many are team-related. Some of those goals occurred late in the period as teams didn’t generate many shots. But it is a high rate for Pickard to allow 11.

— Blackwood has started six straight due to Scott Wedgewood’s injury, but he’s also started 21 of 26 games since being acquired. Trent Miner is their backup, but he’s only made one NHL start, a 3-1 loss to Chicago last month. Head coach Jared Bednar hasn’t been afraid to play Blackwood often, and I’d expect him to play tonight. He could roll the dice with Miner, but that is a risk.

— Another false narrative that gets repeated in Oilersnation is how Edmonton struggles v. rookie goalies. In the past six seasons, including this year, Edmonton is 33-8 v. rookie goalies. They are 3-0 this season. I know people remember the odd game where a rookie plays great, but in the eight losses, the only goalies to have a SV% higher than .910 were Justus Annunen (.962, stopping 25 of 26 shots in 2024), Danill Tarasov (.935, stopping 29 of 31 in 2024), Lukas Dostal (.939, stopping 46 of 49 in 2022) and Alex Nedelkjovic (.939, stopping 31 of 33 in 2021). You might remember the Dostal game the most, and assume that is the norm. But it isn’t. If Bednar opts to start Miner, the Oilers’ odds of winning will increase significantly.

— I spoke with John Klingberg this morning and asked him how he feels now that he’s played some games. “Overall I feel pretty good,” he said. “I actually felt better in the Chicago game than I did in St. Louis, in terms of my mobility and that is a big positive for me. I’m not where I want to be, but I’m around where I thought I would be. I’m feeling better each game handling the puck, but the biggest challenge is battling and getting your timing to ensure you are taking the right angle.”

I asked him about battle drills and making the reads defensively.

“That is the right question. Those are the areas I’m really focused on and are the things things I want to see improve more and more.

How do you improve that?

“I think it just comes down to challenge yourself in the game, but also in practice, to set that right gap without feeling like the forward is going right by you or that you are putting a gap where you aren’t close enough to him to make a play. It starts in practice, but then in the game and then getting the read off of teammates if you see that he steps up or has a good gap, you need to be right close to pick up the puck as well and create an angle to give yourself more time with the puck when you get it back.”

— Klingberg will remain in Edmonton during the break. His family is with him and they want to find a place to live. He also plans on skating a lot with the Oilers staff, and he likely will practice a few times with the Edmonton Oil Kings. He and the organization talked about the option of going on a three-game conditioning stint to Bakersfield, but he felt getting his home set up, skating with the Oilers staff and practicing here would be more beneficial.

Arvidsson – McDavid – Hyman
J. Skinner – Draisaitl – Podkolzin
Janmark – RNH – Brown
Kapanen – Henrique – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

Two of the hottest goalies in the NHL will likely go head-to-head tonight (I’m assuming Avs start Blackwood). Over the past 11 weeks Skinner and Blackwood rank among the best in the NHL in Sv% and GAA.

Same forward and D pairs for the Oilers. Jeff Skinner remains on the second line with Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl said this about playing with Skinner and his recent play.

It is very impressive to me that Draisaitl is second in NHL scoring despite none of his regular wingers producing much. If Skinner and him can find some chemistry that would be a huge boost.

Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas
Drouin – Mittelstadt – Parssinen
Wood – Drury – Colton
Kiviranta – Kelly – O’Connor

Toews – Makar
Girard – Malinski
De Haan – Kylinton

Blackwood

First time to see the MacKinnon-Necas combo live. They were really good last night in Calgary.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers sweep the season series and pick up a 4-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl scores his 39th goal of the season.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jeff Skinner scores his fourth goal in his last six games. He has seven in his first 43. Heating up at the right time of year.