It is simple: a win tonight and the Edmonton Oilers will start the 2026 playoffs on home ice. Lose and they could play in Anaheim, Los Angeles, or Colorado.

The Oilers control their own destiny and will approach this game like a playoff game.

“It doesn’t happen very often, but it isn’t a bad thing,” said Ryan Nugent-Hopkins about the win and get-in (home-ice advantage) scenario. “You have to find your game at this point leading into the playoffs, and we face no choice but to do so. These points are important and tonight we need one (win). It forces you to bring your game and have that mindset right away.”

I asked RNH how much the scenario will be discussed in the room.

“It has been talked about lately and it will be talked about tonight for sure. It is an important game for us and we have to prepare for that,” Nugent-Hopkins said. The longest-serving member of the Oilers is confident the Oilers will show up, not only tonight, but when the playoffs begin.

“Defensively, especially lately, everyone is on the same page. We might sacrifice a little bit of offence playing that way, but that’s okay it will pay off. We have had looks. We just need to bear down. When playoffs hit, the defensive side of the game wins you games, and special teams play a big part and I think we’ve been doing a good job lately in those areas,” said Nugent-Hopkins.

The Oilers know what is at stake tonight. Win and they finish second place and begin the playoffs at home on Monday night. In fact, if they get one point, they finish second, but their focus is on winning. If they lose in regulation, then they could finish second or third in the Pacific Division or drop to the second wildcard spot and play Sunday night in Colorado. Of course, the Oilers don’t want to finish eighth, but head coach Kris Knoblauch was quick to point out they aren’t scared of any team.

“We are confident whoever we play,” said Knoblauch. “When we play, hopefully, with our best, with our full lineup, then we can go toe-to-toe with anybody. Whatever happens happens. Whether we start at home or start on the road against the top team in the league our group has a lot of confidence playing whoever it is.”

Some might look at the standings and wonder how Knoblauch can believe that. The Oilers have not had a consistent season, but he and his players are confident they have found their defensive game, and the stats prove it. In their last 10 games, Edmonton and Vegas lead the NHL in GAA at 2.30. The Oilers have proven when they commit defensively, they are one of the top teams in the NHL, and rather quietly over the past 10 games, they’ve locked things down defensively, and when they’ve given up good chances, Connor Ingram has been great with a 2.07 GAA and .924Sv%.

The playoffs don’t officially begin until Saturday, but tonight is as close to a playoff game as you can get for the Oilers. It has huge implications on their playoff path and they need a strong effort. I expect them to play with playoff intensity.

— “Vancouver has had their challenges this season, but they are playing good hockey lately winning three in a row and they put up eight (goals) against Colorado recently, so we have to be ready tonight,” said Knoblauch. The Oilers won’t take the Canucks lightly.

— Connor McDavid is four points ahead of Nikita Kucherov and seven points ahead of Nathan MacKinnon. Kucherov played his final game last night, while MacKinnon putting up seven points (if he even plays) is highly unlikely. McDavid will officially win his sixth Art Ross tonight and will tie Gordie Howe and Mario Lemieux for second most behind Wayne Gretzky (10).

— McDavid needs two goals to reach 50 for the second time in his career. Winning the game is most important tonight, but firing five shots on goal will help the team and his quest for 50. It is a big milestone, and his teammates will want him to reach it.

— If Vancouver loses in regulation tonight, they will tie the 1999 team for the third-worst points percentage in franchise history at .354. Their lowest was their second season in existence in 1972 at .308 and then in 1973 they were .340. It has been a tough year, but the Canucks will have the best odds at the draft lottery and hope lady luck shines on them and they pick first or second.

— Zach Hyman returns to the lineup tonight, and that is a huge boost for the Oilers. “After being here for a few months, I’ve realized how much he does to help the team. He is so good on the forecheck, strong along on the boards, is physical and he adds a lot of energy for the team. You don’t see some of those things when you aren’t in the room, but now that I’m in here, it has really stood out to me how important he is to the group,” Connor Murphy told me. Hyman does a lot of small things that add up to big things. His return to the lineup is a huge boost for the team.

Debrusk – E. Pettersson – Hoglander
O’Connor – Rossi – Karlsson
Ohgren – Blueger – Boeser
Douglas – Mueller – Raty

Buium – Hronek
M. Pettersson – Willander
E-N. Pettersson – Kudryavtsev

Lankinen

Quite the challenge for play-by-play guys to have three different Pettersson’s including two D-men for Vancouver. The Canucks have won three games in a row defeating LA, Anaheim and San Jose all by the same 4-3 score. Jake Debrusk has four goals including three on the power play. The Canucks’ PP is 5-for-9 during this streak, so the Oilers’ penalty killers need to be on their toes and be aware of Debrusk.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers get the win they need to wrap up second place and skate away with a 5-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid has three points, including two goals, to reach 50.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Podkolzin scores his 20th goal of the season against his former team and Jack Roslovic ties his career high with his 22nd.