In the past few days, the Edmonton Oilers have made two decisions that significantly impact the outlook of their defensive core.
Firstly, on August 13, the St. Louis Blues tenured offer sheets to Edmonton’s restricted free agents Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. Yesterday morning, the Oilers finally decided not to match Broberg and Holloway’s offer sheets.
Additionally, a few days following the Blues’ offer sheet, the Oilers dealt Cody Ceci and a 2025 third-round pick to the San Jose Sharks for defenceman Ty Emberson.
The second-pairing, right-defence spot next to Darnell Nurse in Edmonton’s top four has been a glaring hole for quite some time. For the past two seasons, Cody Ceci has most commonly played in the 2RD spot, but he heavily struggled.
After the conclusion of the 2024 playoffs, most expected Broberg to begin the 2024-25 season at 2RD next to Nurse, signing a cheap deal in the low ~$1M range. This was where he played for nearly the entirety of the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals.
While Broberg is a left-shot defenceman, he was not projected to play much on his natural side in Edmonton considering that Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak were all ahead of him on the LHD depth chart. Furthermore, he did have significant experience on his off-side when he played for the Skellefteå AIK of the Swedish Hockey League in 2019-20 and 2020-21. I wrote all about Broberg’s potential viability at 2RD back in July.
At the start of the summer, Edmonton’s most significant additions were two top-six forwards; Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. Meanwhile, the NHL defence mainly remained intact aside from Vincent Desharnais leaving in free agency. My guess is that the Oilers did not want to spend assets on a top-four defenceman until they saw how well Broberg could perform at the 2RD spot over a significant sample.
However, with the departure of Broberg to an offer sheet, alongside the Ceci for Emberson trade, the situation has considerably changed. The odds of Broberg succeeding on his off-side were already doubtful, and now, the 2RD spot is even more of an evident hole. Edmonton’s RD depth after Evan Bouchard is not exactly pretty.
In the 2024 playoffs, the Oilers held a -11 goal differential at 5v5 with Nurse on-ice, while it improved to +12 without him; that’s a 23-goal swing in just 25 games. There is a very strong argument that if Edmonton acquired a capable defensive partner for Nurse heading into the 2024 playoffs, they could have won the cup. This is an issue that must be fixed by the 2025 trade deadline in some way or another.
So, with everything in mind, who should be Edmonton’s 2RD?
*All on-ice stats via EvolvingHockey, PuckIQ and Natural Stat Trick, all microstats via AllThreeZones, and all cap info via PuckPedia

Internal Options

Ty Emberson

I believe Ty Emberson has some underrated potential.
Emberson is a 24-year-old right-shot defenceman, drafted in the third round of the 2018 draft by the Arizona Coyotes. In 2022-23, he played for the Hartford Wolf Pack, the AHL affiliate of the New York Rangers, coached by current Oilers HC Kris Knoblauch. Emberson was named the AHL Eastern Conference’s best defensive defenceman that season.
Most recently, in 2023-24, Emberson played with the San Jose Sharks in the NHL. Here are his underlying results:
First, let’s start with the good.
While you shouldn’t expect much offence from Emberson, he produced some very strong defensive results on an awful San Jose team this past season. His impact on suppressing scoring chances ranked in the 89th percentile amongst all NHL defencemen. Emberson’s most significant strength is his ability to efficiently retrieve pucks in the defensive zone and clear the front of the net. 
Furthermore, Emberson played roughly ~32 percent of his TOI against elite competition, which is actually around the level of a typical second-pair defenceman. As seen on the chart above per PuckIQ, Emberson was San Jose’s only defender to produce a DFF% (on-ice dangerous shot attempt differential) against elites above 46 percent; for reference, the average on San Jose’s defensive core was 36 percent, and no other defender was above 40.3 percent. Quite encouraging, and he certainly seems to be a clear upgrade on Ceci.
However, zone exits and entry defence are not exactly Emberson’s greatest strengths. As I outlined in detail in an article several months back, these two areas are critical flaws in Nurse’s game, and so I believe the ideal partner for Nurse is someone that can effectively defend zone entries and efficiently exit the zone. This raises questions about Emberson’s potential stylistic fit next to Nurse.
Additionally, the biggest red flag for Emberson is the sample size. He has played just 30 NHL games in his career, all of which came this past season. 
So, on the one hand, the on-ice results are good, but the sample isn’t nearly large enough, and there are question marks regarding Emberson’s potential fit with Nurse. Currently, Emberson should be projected as a third-pairing NHL defenceman in terms of ability until proven otherwise.
But on the other hand, there is an argument that Emberson is still Edmonton’s best internal option at 2RD. Considering the lack of alternatives, starting the season with Emberson on the second pair and observing what he can do could definitely be worth a shot.

Troy Stecher

The Oilers traded a 2027 fourth-round pick to the Arizona Coyotes for right-defenceman Troy Stecher and a 2024 seventh-round draft pick at the 2024 trade deadline.
Stecher played seven games for Edmonton in the regular season but could not play in the playoffs due to an ankle injury that required surgery. On July 1, the Oilers re-signed Stecher to a two-year contract at a $787K AAV.
At the time of the signing, Stecher was expected to be a sixth or seventh defenceman, but with Edmonton’s current situation, could he obtain an opportunity in the top four?
One key advantage Stecher has over Emberson is experience; Stecher has played 494 NHL games since 2016 and is clearly the much more established NHLer. For what it’s worth, Nurse and Stecher produced a solid 59 xG% together in very limited minutes (48 TOI) after the deadline.
But, Stecher’s defensive and overall on-ice results in a more sheltered role than Emberson have been worse. Of course, sample size must be considered, but there is simply not much evidence to suggest that Stecher can be an effective 2RD. He’s even worse than Nurse at defending zone entries, raising significant questions if they’d ever fit well stylistically over a large sample.
All things considered, I’m doubtful if Stecher can be an effective top-four defenceman. But, if Emberson doesn’t work well at 2RD, perhaps it wouldn’t hurt to at least give him a chance.

Other RHDs in the organization

Josh Brown was another RHD signed in free agency on July 1, but the odds of him succeeding as a top-four NHL RD are exceedingly low. Playing on the third pair in Arizona, his 5v5 defensive impacts ranked bottom-five in the entire league in the past two seasons. I don’t see him being much more than a 7D.
Connor Carrick was yet another RHD signed in free agency, but he’s primarily played in the AHL for the past few seasons. Barring major injuries, it’s likely he spends the entirety of the year in Bakersfield.
The Oilers do have two young RHD prospects that could be close to making the NHL; Philip Kemp and Max Wanner. Perhaps there’s a possibility that they follow a similar path to Vincent Desharnais and earn themselves a spot at 3RD in the NHL; however, the odds that they develop into a regular NHL top-four defenceman in 2024-25 are probably quite low.

What about Brett Kulak?

In the 2024 playoffs, Nurse played with four different defensive partners: Cody Ceci, Philip Broberg, Brett Kulak, and Vincent Desharnais.
His best results came with Kulak, a left-handed defenceman, as Nurse produced a 53 percent expected goal differential with Kulak on his right side. For reference, Nurse’s xG% was 49 percent, 35 percent, and 30 percent, respectively, with Desharnais, Ceci, and Broberg. The Oilers won the final three games of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Stars with Nurse-Kulak as the second-pairing.
However, the pairing was separated for the Stanley Cup Finals.
Per Rob Brown of 630 CHED, there was talk that Kulak was not wholly comfortable playing on his off-side. It seems to be the only reasonable explanation for why that pairing was split up despite their (relative) success.
For this reason, it’s highly doubtful if Kulak will be an option at 2RD.

What about splitting up Ekholm and Bouchard?

There is a valid argument that Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard formed the NHL’s best defensive pairing in 2023-24. 
In the regular season and playoffs combined, no defensive pair (with a minimum of 200 TOI) produced a better goal or expected goal differential at 5-on-5 than Ekholm and Bouchard. In a perfect world, there’s no way you separate that pairing.
But, if Edmonton wants to run a balanced defensive core, they may need to consider this route.
It’s worth noting that Ekholm played some minutes at right-defence in Nashville; his results weren’t extraordinary, but he maintained positive on-ice results.
The Oilers could run a top-four of Kulak-Bouchard and Nurse-Ekholm while acquiring a depth left-defenceman for the third pair (LD are currently much easier to find than RD). In the minutes they played together, Kulak and Bouchard produced exceptional results (70 xG%), while perhaps Ekholm could calm Nurse’s game down. Or, they could try something similar to Nurse-Bouchard, Ekholm-Emberson, and Kulak-Stecher. Perhaps allowing Ekholm and Bouchard to drive their own pairings is their best shot with the current group of defencemen.
Still, this should not be seen as a long-term option. Heading into the 2025 playoffs, Ekholm and Bouchard should remain as a pair while Nurse has an established partner, whether it’s Emberson, Stecher, or a trade option.

External Options

Chances are, the Oilers will eventually need to explore the trade market to solve their 2RD hole.
In past articles regarding the evaluation of potential 2RD trade targets, I have outlined five important criteria:
      1. Positive impact on even-strength goal differential
      2. Positive impact on even-strength expected goal differential
      3. Significant experience against elite competition
      4. Effective at defending zone entries
      5. Effective at exiting the zone
In a perfect world, the ideal defensive partner for Darnell Nurse fits each of these categories. Without further ado, here are a couple of potential trade options for Edmonton and if they check all these boxes or not.

Dante Fabbro

Dante Fabbro, a 26-year-old defenceman with a $2.5M cap hit on the Nashville Predators, is a fascinating option.
Fabbro is a superb puck-mover. He remains one of the league’s most efficient defenceman at retrieving pucks in the defensive zone and exiting without turning the puck over, as his failed exit percentage ranks in the 94th percentile. Furthermore, he’s an above-average entry defender and has seen a significant improvement in that regard this past season. 
Fabbro’s actual goal differential remains low, but that’s primarily influenced by a 6 percent on-ice shooting percentage in 2022-23. If he played with a team with significantly better offensive talent than Nashville, like Edmonton, his goal share should be much closer to his expected goal share; this is what happened with Mattias Ekholm, who maintained superb expected numbers in both Nashville and Edmonton, but his actual goal differential substantially improved with the Oilers due to the improvement in linemate quality (99% of defencemen ultimately have minimal impact on on-ice SH%).
It’s worth noting that Daily Faceoff’s projected defensive pairs for Nashville don’t even list Fabbro as one of their top-six defencemen. At the same time, Fabbro only has one year remaining on his contract. Although the Predators are expected to be a playoff team and unlikely to sell, they could be open to moving Fabbro.
However, the major question mark with Fabbro is quality of competition. His results against elites are generally solid, but relative to most top-four NHL defencemen, he does not play elite opposition at a very high rate.  
Still, Fabbro has a considerably higher chance of success than any of Edmonton’s internal options. Stylistically, there is a possibility he could pair very well with Nurse. He’s not a perfect option, but I would strongly consider him if the price is right. 

Rasmus Andersson

Rasmus Andersson was brought up as a potential option by Brenden Escott, host of OilersNow. Andersson is a 27-year-old defenceman on the Calgary Flames with a $4.55M cap hit. 
Interestingly, there’s a discrepancy between Andersson’s actual and expected goal differential in the past two seasons. The Flames generate the same rate of scoring chances with and without Andersson on ice, but their finishing considerably improves with Andersson. Whether that sustains or not remains to be seen.
Andersson has been a regular top-four defenceman for Calgary, but in three of the past four seasons, Andersson’s DFF% against elite competition ranks near the bottom of the team. That’s one noteworthy red flag.
In terms of microstats, Andersson is roughly average at exiting the zone, but in regards to defending the rush, he has been abysmal. Andersson ranks as one of the league’s worst defenders at preventing controlled zone entries, as he very often gives up the blueline when opposition forwards attempt to gain the zone.
Additionally, Edmonton would likely have to offer a higher price for Andersson compared to other teams with Calgary being a prominent provincial rival. It’s worth mentioning that the Oilers were also interested in Flames RHD Chris Tanev at the deadline, reportedly offering their first round pick, but Calgary eventually dealt him to Dallas.
All things considered, Andersson remains a top-four defenceman, and he’s likely much better than Edmonton’s internal options. I could see some of his results improving on a better team. However, there are several red flags in his game, and considering that his asking price could be relatively high, I’m not an avid fan of this option.

Will Borgen

Will Borgen is a 27-year-old right-defenceman on the Seattle Kraken, carrying a $2.7M cap hit.
Borgen’s overall impact on goal and expected goal differential is unspectacular, but the main appeal to Borgen is his overall experience against top competition. He played the most minutes against elite opposition amongst Seattle’s defensive core this past season and produced positive DFF% numbers in those minutes, which would be very valuable to the Oilers. His entry defence is subpar, but it’s at a similar level to Emberson and Stecher, while his puck-moving is considerably better.
On Tuesday, Seattle signed Matthew Beniers to a seven-year contract at a $7.1M AAV, and they have just $4,286 left in cap space. With just one year remaining on his contract, Seattle may be willing to move Borgen at the right price to clear some cap space.

Artem Zub

Artem Zub is a 28-year-old defenceman on the Ottawa Senators with a $4.6M cap hit for three more years. This is a player that I have been fond of for quite some time.
Zub checks off a lot of boxes. He plays elite competition at an incredibly high rate, and has produced excellent goal and expected goal share impacts. Although he’s not the most spectacular puck-mover, he’s an upgrade on Ceci, Emberson, and Stecher, while he’s an outstanding rush defender. Zub’s entry denial rates rank near the league’s top, as he’s consistently aggressive at defending the blueline.
Unfortunately, it is doubtful if Ottawa would trade him. At the 2024 trade deadline, Senators writer Ian Mendes reported that the team has no interest in trading Zub, even going on to say that, “if anything, [the Senators] need to clone Artem Zub — not trade him away.” 
But, if there is any chance that Zub is ever available, potentially at the deadline if the Senators are sellers, the Oilers should be all over it.

Other Options

  • Allan Mitchell/Lowetide of The Athletic mentioned Montreal’s Justin Barron as an option a few weeks back. Barron ranked first among Montreal’s defencemen in DFF% against elite competition this past season, and he’s only 22, which is huge for an aging Oilers team. However, whether Montreal would be willing to trade him or not is uncertain.
  • RHD Justin Schultz remains a UFA. The advantage to Schultz is that he costs no assets to acquire, he would likely sign for a relatively cheap price, and he has more experience as a top-four NHL defenceman than Emberson and Stecher, so he could be an option worth considering. But he has primarily played third-pairing minutes for the past three seasons.
  • I wonder about Jamie Oleksiak. He’s a left-handed defender, but has experience on the right side and regularly plays very difficult competition. Perhaps he could be a temporary “bandaid” option?
  • Trevor Van Riemsdyk has produced solid results as a #5 defenceman for the Capitals. It could be worth giving him a chance to see what he could do in a more significant role.
  • David Savard and Neal Pionk are some options I would avoid. I don’t feel they would be an adequate fit next to Nurse.

Final Thoughts

With the Oilers deciding not to match Holloway and Broberg, they could have roughly $946K in cap space even without Kane on LTIR. This would accrue to roughly ~$4.4M cap space at the trade deadline. If the Oilers waive Corey Perry and Josh Brown while replacing them with league minimum players, they would have roughly ~$1.545M in cap space, which could accrue to roughly ~$7M (!) worth of cap space at the deadline.
Unfortunately, the current market for top-four RHD is arguably not very appealing. But, lots of things can change over the course of a full season, and by the trade deadline, it will be much more evident which players are available and which aren’t. Not many expected Ekholm to be avaliable in 2023 until a few days right before the deadline.
I wonder if the Oilers decide to start the year without trading for a bonafide 2RD, and experiment with their current internal options. Perhaps they would like to see how Emberson and Stecher perform at the 2RD position before making a trade, while waiting to accrue more cap space for the deadline and evaluate which RHDs are truly on the market. This may be the most likely possibility.
Still, there are risks with continuing with the current defensive core. While a healthy Oilers squad undoubtedly remains a 100-point team with or without a trade for a 2RD, they are an Evan Bouchard injury away from Emberson or Stecher on their top defensive pairing. While Zub is likely unavailable and Andersson’s asking price could be high, I would strongly consider looking at Fabbro or Borgen right now.
Regardless, some way or the other, the Oilers must be able to ensure that they have an adequate 2RD by the end of the trade deadline. They cannot head into the fourth consecutive playoffs without a competent second-pair.
It will be interesting to observe how Edmonton’s management decides to approach this situation.
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)

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