After losing the first two games in their first-round series against the L.A. Kings, it was the top guns that drove the Edmonton Oilers to victory in Games 3 and 4, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combining for 11 points while Evan Bouchard scored four goals. But in Games 5 and 6, it was the depth scoring that ultimately pushed Edmonton over the edge.
In those two games, the Oilers scored a total of nine goals. Of those nine goals, there were eight different goal-scorers, and none of them were McDavid or Draisaitl. In fact, seven of those goals, including the eventual series-winner, were scored with both McDavid and Draisaitl off-ice.
Edmonton’s superstars drove the team’s initial comeback to tie the series, but the supporting cast drove them to victory in their series-clinching games.
Now, over the past decade, every single cup-winning NHL team has produced a goal differential of at least 51 percent without their top two players. Some teams, such as the 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning and 2023 Vegas Golden Knights, reached above 60 or even 70 percent, but at the very least, each cup-winning team managed to out-score the opposition without their best players. It is clear that this is a crucial ingredient to playoff success.
For the Oilers, they’ve had quite some trouble reaching that mark. In fact, up until this year, they had never out-scored opponents without McDavid and Draisaitl on ice in the playoffs, with their depth goal differential often hovering around ~40 percent. Last year in particular, they managed to end the playoffs at a ghastly 36 percent. Edmonton’s star players and historic PK may have managed to get them all the way to Game 7 of the finals, but simply put, it will be very difficult for them to reach that far again with a bottom-six performing at that level.
Luckily, there’s evidence that this trend may finally change this time around.
Against the L.A. Kings, the Oilers out-scored opponents 9 to 7 without their two superstars on ice at 5-on-5, equating to an excellent 56 percent goal differential. It’s not just some PDO heater either, as they currently sit at a 58 percent expected goal differential and roughly ~9.7 expected goals; if anything, they have room for even more offence.
Compared to prior years, the Kings actually did a strong job at limiting McDavid and Draisaitl when they were on separate lines at 5-on-5. In fact, both of them held a negative goal differential without each other. That, combined with Edmonton’s struggling penalty kill, could have resulted in an LA series victory on paper.
However, the big difference was that the Oilers’ depth was not only not a net negative, but genuinely positively impactful. And individually, essentially everyone deserves credit.
He turns 40 in just a few weeks, but Corey Perry has somehow been one of Edmonton’s best wingers. Trade deadline acquisition Trent Frederic improved as the series went on and finished with a 56 percent expected goal differential and the series-clinching goal. Connor Brown had a three-point night in Game 6, and has formed a very effective third line with Frederic and Adam Henrique, who has looked much better at 3C in the playoffs compared to the regular season. I don’t know what gets into him come playoff time, but even Mattias Janmark has been fairly effective, scoring the game-winning goal in Game 5.
It was only about three years ago, under then-head coach Dave Tippett, that the Oilers had amongst the worst depth scoring rates in the entire NHL, with a net goal differential nearing -20. But today, it’s finally turning into a genuine source of strength for this team.
Now, the Oilers will play against the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round. They had faced off for the first time back in 2023, where Vegas was victorious in six games. A big reason for that was Vegas’ depth scoring.
In 2023, the Golden Knights deployed Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and William Karlsson each on different lines, and it certainly paid off. Vegas ran 7 different forward line combinations for at least 30 minutes, and each and every one of them had a positive 5-on-5 goal differential. Compare that to the Oilers, who only had 1 such line in the 2023 playoffs. Ultimately, no team could match Vegas’s dynamic scoring depth that year, and they wound up winning the cup.
But this year, the Golden Knights are projected to start the series by deploying Eichel, Stone and Karlsson on the same line. Of course, the team has Tomas Hertl at 2C this time around, but Vegas’ forward group is not as deep and spread out as it was in their cup-winning season. In fact, the team was a net negative in goal differential without Eichel, Stone, and Karlsson on ice at 5-on-5 in the regular season.
This is where Edmonton’s depth has a chance to have a big impact. Edmonton’s top stars certainly outclass Vegas’ best players, but the ultimate difference in this series could eventually come down to the depth scoring rates for both teams.
On paper, the Oilers’ forward depth certainly has the potential to be a difference-maker. Let’s see if they can deliver.
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