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IS BAKERSFIELD VALUE VILLAGE?
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Lowetide
Mar 19, 2016, 10:57 EDTUpdated:
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Almost five years ago, in the summer of 2011, Tyler Pitlick was a forward prospect trying to make his way through junior hockey and into the NHL. These years later, he is still trying to climb that mountain, due mostly to injuries. As much as it would be nice to say that he was outplayed by superior prospects developed by Edmonton, the truth is the system has not delivered—and there still may be a place for him. Why? The need for value contracts. 
In the summer of 2011, I ranked the Oilers top 20 prospects—plus a bonus nine—and in the five years since, only eight have played in 100 NHL games (includes games played before summer 2011):
  1. Jeff Petry 365 (Rank: No. 3)
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 308 (Rank: No. 1)
  3. Anton Lander 190 (Rank: No. 6)
  4. Chris VandeVelde 187 (Rank: No. 13)
  5. Tobias Rieder: 142 (Rank: No. 14)
  6. Mark Arcobello 139 (Rank: No. 29)
  7. Martin Marincin 138 (Rank: No. 7)
  8. Oscar Klefbom 107 (Rank: No. 2)
There is still talent developing, men like Brandon Davidson should eventually find their way past 100 games and have solid careers. While Davidson’s development is great news, the Oilers—in the draft this summer—badly need to add prospects who are going to arrive on time. Why? The need for value contracts.

FUTURE VALUE

How many players in the modern NHL make the real money? About seven per team? Let’s take the Chicago Blackhawks as an example. Source
  1. Jonathan Toews $10.5 million
  2. Patrick Kane $10.5 million
  3. Corey Crawford $6 million
  4. Brent Seabrook $5.8 million
  5. Duncan Keith $5.538 million
  6. Marian Hossa $5.275 million
Those six men total over $43 million in cap room, or about 61 percent of the overall cap hit for Chicago. It leaves (should the cap remain at around $71.4 million dollars) about $28 million for 17 players—and some of the incumbents (like Nicklas Hjamarsson) make over $4 million. There are also two renewals for Chicago—Artem Anisimov and Marcus Kruger—so the need for value deals for the Blackhawks will be enormous. Now, they have a few advantages, like the ability to win free-agent battles for talents like Artemi Panarin, who had to know his skill set would be a perfect match for such a skilled team. Chicago also signed form Oilers draft pick Erik Gustafsson, who is making just $667,000 next season.

HOW DOES THIS WORK FOR THE OILERS?

If we list Edmonton’s top six contracts for next season:
  1. Taylor Hall $6 million
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins $6 million
  3. Jordan Eberle $6 million
  4. Andrej Sekera $5.5 million
  5. Oscar Klefbom $4.167 million
  6. Cam Talbot $4.167 million
That gives us a total of $31,834,000—and that is before what is likely to be at least one expensive addition. The Oilers, like Chicago, badly need good value deals—like that of Brandon Davidson this season. That will be a big part of Peter Chiarelli’s job, for this season and many to come. Connor McDavid’s next contract is out there, like Everest.

WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?

  1. Nail Yakupov: At $2.5 million, Yakupov could find his way onto a scoring line and make that contract true value. I know it may seem like a long shot, but Yakupov can do the most expensive thing in hockey—score goals.
  2. Zack Kassian: Started like a house on fire, has faded in recent weeks. Oilers surely like his size and rugged style, would want more consistent play if they retain him. Cap hit is $1.75 million and he is an RFA this summer.
  3. Patrick Maroon: At $1.5 million (Anaheim retained), Maroon could be a ridiculous value deal if he plays as he has so far in an Oilers uniform. Could be a master stroke by Peter Chiarelli.
  4. Brandon Davidson: Signed for two seasons at $1.425 million, Davidson can play top 6D and slide up as required. That is a major item—Chicago would love to have this player in that spot right now.
  5. Anton Lander: I know, but at $988,000 he could be a value deal if he can regain his level from one year ago. For the record, I don’t see him back next year, despite the contract.
  6. Jordan Oesterle: You have to like the way he has played in Edmonton down the stretch, and I would guess his dandy contract status (RFA, cap hit of $925,000) would make him an ideal option for early recall next year. He has really played his way into the conversation for next season.
  7. Iiro Pakarinen: An RFA, so we don’t know what his actual contract will look like, but the coach likes him and he can skate and crash. This year, his cap hit is $925,000 with bonuses.
  8. Laurent Brossoit: Signed for two years at $725,000, we don’t know what spot he will occupy on the depth chart, but that is a value deal for every day he spends in the majors.

      WHO IS ON THE FARM?

      That is really the issue. It is a concern. As much as we should be pleased by the development of Brandon Davidson, Jordan Oesterle and Laurent Brossoit this year, more is needed. Anton Slepyshev hasn’t accomplished enough since going to the minors, Bogdan Yakimov bolted to Russia mid-season, and the club doesn’t have anyone from recent drafts they can sign.
      Peter Chiarelli signed Jere Sallinen to a contract recently, and that is (I believe) the main reason. Tyler Pitlick, Jujhar Khaira, Slepyshev and Yakimov are all bets Edmonton is making for those value NHL contracts, but they need more, and they need a Hail Mary or two to cash. We don’t know their names, that much is clear. The Oilers need to roll the dice and find another Brandon Davidson. And then do it again.

      CONDORS WHO COULD BE VALUE DEALS NEXT SEASON

      1. Jujhar Khaira: He has made progress as a pro, still has another year in the AHL if needed. I would say he is a reasonable bet to deliver value.
      2. Tyler Pitlick: He is RFA, and may be back. Scott Zerr’s article yesterday included some encouraging words from coach Gerry Fleming.
      3. Bogdan Yakimov: Plenty of pro experience, including KHL and AHL. He is a big man, if he hangs around North America next season he may get that NHL chance (depending on injuries).
      4. Anton Slepyshev: Unsure of his status for next season, but coach Todd McLellan liked him plenty in training camp, and the Russian may give the team a tough decision in the fall.
      5. David Musil: Skating issues, the fact he is a lefty, and his playing style (he is a shutdown type) make the leap to the Oilers a little more difficult. Based solely on minor league performance, he would appear to be bona fide for an NHL chance—it may not come as an Oiler.
      Photos by Mark Williams.
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