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The $49-million question facing the Edmonton Oilers’ blue line

Photo credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

By NHL_Sid

Aug 9, 2026, 16:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 9, 2026, 15:44 EDT

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In the 2025–26 NHL season, Edmonton Oilers defenceman Jake Walman was on-ice for 3.6 goals allowed per hour at 5-on-5. Among all defencemen with a minimum of 500 minutes played, that rate ranks dead last.

Put differently, no regular NHL blueliner saw pucks end up in his net at a higher rate than Walman did.

In total, the Oilers were out-scored 52-36 with Walman on-ice, equating to an atrocious 40 per cent goal share. Some of that stems from Edmonton’s inadequate goaltending, but the underlying numbers don’t let Walman off the hook. EvolvingHockey rated his impact on suppressing expected goals in the bottom 10 among all defencemen in the league, and no Oilers defender was on the ice for more high-danger chances against.

Safe to say, it was not a good year for Walman.

But Walman was not always like this. Just one season earlier in 2024–25, he posted strong underlying results while playing top-pair minutes on a dreadful San Jose Sharks team. After being traded to Edmonton at the trade deadline, he delivered quality top-four minutes during the Oilers’ run to the 2025 Stanley Cup Final.

As Walman enters the first year of his seven-year, $49 million extension in the 2026–27 season, can he bounce back and re-establish himself as a reliable top-four option for the Oilers? Let’s dig in.

*All data via EvolvingHockey, Natural Stat Trick, AllThreeZones and PuckIQ

How good was Jake Walman at his best?

In the prior three seasons to 2025–26, Walman’s two-way underlying numbers were quite strong, and in many ways. Here’s a brief summary:

EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model rates Walman’s offensive and defensive impact considerably above average. There’s no doubt he’s an offensively inclined player, but his defensive impacts during that stretch also graded out strongly.

A major driver of those results was Walman’s puck-moving ability. He ranked in the 84th percentile in controlled zone exits per 60 and sat in the 65th percentile in exit success rate, showing he could break the puck out with possession at high volume while reliably limiting turnovers. Walman also grades well in defensive-zone retrievals, frequently winning loose pucks under oncoming forecheck pressure.

It’s also worth noting that Walman has an excellent shot. At 5-on-5, he averaged 0.58 goals per hour, a scoring rate tied with Cale Makar!

What makes all of this more impressive is the context. Walman logged extremely difficult minutes, with nearly 40 per cent of his ice time coming against elite competition. That’s a higher rate than the likes of Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski, Jaccob Slavin, and several other top names during that span.

His 2024–25 season in particular, as mentioned earlier, stands out. Before the trade deadline, Walman played top-pair minutes on a last-place San Jose Sharks team and still managed respectable results. While the rest of San Jose’s blue line was heavily outscored, Walman finished nearly net-even at a minus-1 goal differential. After accounting for teammate quality, his relative-to-teammate 5-on-5 goal differential ranked fourth among all NHL defencemen.

He continued his strong play after being dealt to Edmonton. In 15 regular-season games with the Oilers, he posted a 62 per cent goal share and 55 per cent expected goal share, with Edmonton out-shooting opponents 141-107 and out-scoring them 13-8 when he was on the ice.

Walman’s playoff performance may have been even more impressive. With Mattias Ekholm sidelined for the first two rounds and the opening five games of the Western Conference Final, Walman stepped into a larger role, primarily alongside John Klingberg. That pairing excelled at moving the puck up ice, and Walman continued to drive play. He continued to drive goals with a strong 54 per cent goal share, and his 57 per cent expected goal share was the best among Edmonton defencemen, even ahead of Evan Bouchard.

Taken together, it is clear that Walman performed as a legitimately effective top-four defenceman over these three seasons, proving he can deliver strong results in both the regular season and the playoffs.

What exactly went wrong for Walman in 2025-26?

There were two key factors that hampered Walman’s season in 2025–26: injuries and deployment.

The injury troubles started immediately. In just his very first preseason appearance, Walman suffered an injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the preseason and the opening six games of the regular season. Notably, he scored the overtime winner against the Ottawa Senators in his first game back, but that moment ended up being one of his very few bright spots in an otherwise difficult year.

On Nov. 20 against Tampa Bay, Walman blocked a shot and sustained a deep bone bruise, keeping him out until January. That made two significant injuries in a span of just three months. And although he didn’t miss time for it, Walman also mentioned he tweaked something in a game against Ottawa in March.

Deployment was another problem. Walman rarely had a consistent partner and spent a substantial portion of the season playing on his off-side. His most frequent pairing was with Darnell Nurse, with Walman on the right. The Nurse–Walman duo struggled, as they were out-scored and out-chanced. In particular, they leaked dangerous shots against, posting a high-danger chance share of just 43 per cent.

Walman also played third-pair minutes with Ty Emberson and Spencer Stastney, but never found much chemistry, which was not surprising given how often Edmonton’s coaching staff shuffled its lines and pairings.

Put together, the combination of multiple injuries and inconsistent deployment created an environment where almost any defenceman would struggle to perform at their best.

Final Thoughts: Will he bounce back?

There are a few concerns to be had about Walman. First and foremost, his injury troubles are nothing new. Even before the setbacks of 2025–26, Walman had dealt with a wide range of injuries throughout his career, such as shoulder surgery prior to 2022–23 and three separate injuries in the calendar year of 2024 alone. He has missed games in every NHL season he’s played, and has never appeared in more than 65 games in a season.

This is all the more concerning as he enters just the first year of his seven-year contract, which carries a $7 million AAV. Though a rising cap ceiling should help Edmonton stomach that number a bit more, it will nevertheless remain important for him to play up to his high cap hit.

Still, his results in prior seasons indicate there is a legitimately impactful player here. Walman has proven that he can play extremely tough minutes and drive results at both ends of the ice. His ability to move the puck under forecheck pressure makes him highly valuable in the playoffs against teams like the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes.

Though the Oilers were eliminated early in the first round of the 2026 playoffs against the Anaheim Ducks, Walman was one of their few bright spots. He posted a positive goal share and led all Oiler defencemen in expected goal differential. It wasn’t a large sample, but it’s another indicator that there is still an effective player here.

Deployment will be crucial. The Oilers should avoid using Walman on his off-side, where his results have consistently dipped. On paper, Connor Murphy appears to be the best fit for Walman for a balanced second pair; Walman would serve as the primary puck mover, while Murphy would help Walman on the defensive side of the puck.

However, Walman’s success alongside John Klingberg in the 2025 playoffs suggests he can also thrive as part of a dynamic puck-moving pair. It could be very viable to run an offensive top pair of Walman and Evan Bouchard, while Mattias Ekholm and Murphy form a defensive shutdown pair. Ryan Shea, a strong puck mover himself, is another viable partner who could complement Walman’s strengths on his right side.

Ultimately, Walman’s health will undoubtedly be a major question mark heading into 2026–27. History suggests he is relatively likely to miss games next season. But if he can stay healthy, his track record strongly suggests he can deliver quality top-four results for the Oilers provided they deploy him properly.

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