Rivalries make any sport better, and hockey is no different. Whether it is a rivalry in U13, Junior A, Major Junior, the NHL or at a World Cup (4 Nations), when you face your rival the intensity heightens — both on the ice and for the fans in the crowd or watching at home.
For those who watched the 1972 Summit Series, that is still the most intense and emotional game they’ve ever seen. It was about more than hockey, due to the political climate, and they had the benefit of eight games which created an emotional increase, similar to a seven-game series. It would have been amazing to feel that energy.
I wasn’t born yet, but my mother — who isn’t a rabid hockey fan, but still enjoys the game — talks about how much those games meant. Phil Esposito was her favourite player, and she loved his interview/speech to Canadians after Game 4.
She told me how much seeing them come back to win the series meant, not only as a fan, but as a Canadian.
A younger generation vividly remembers Sidney Crosby’s Golden Goal at the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver. There was National pride on the line to win gold on home ice.
Those are great moments for fans, but I’m sure anyone reading this, who played hockey, can recall a big win. It is difficult to describe the euphoria you feel when your team wins a big game. Most of us who played minor sports have felt that, and that feeling is why you become a fan. Only a select few can play professional sports, but luckily anyone can be a fan and ride that wave of emotion.
Tomorrow night is the first meeting between Canada and the United States at this style of tournament since September 20th, 2016. Canada won 4-2 on the back of a pair of goals from Matt Duchene. That game was only a round-robin game, and it didn’t have all the best players on either team as young stars like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews and others played for Team North America.
You have to go back to the semi-final of the 2014 Olympics for the last true meeting between these North American rivals. Jamie Benn scored the only goal as Canada won 1-0 en route to winning the gold medal. It was a big game, but didn’t match the hype and excitement of the 2010 Olympic Final.
Tomorrow isn’t for a medal, but due to the verbal garbage spewing out of the mouth of USA’s President, there is more juice surrounding this game. You can sense the frustration, and frankly, the insult of the ludicrous inference to become the 51st State. It annoys me, and I can’t wait for tomorrow. Winning or losing the hockey game won’t alter anything politically, but taking the Michael Jordan approach of “I took that personally” makes this game more intense.
I can’t wait to see these teams go at it.
The USA is still the younger sibling in this rivalry. It’s been 29 years since their only meaningful victory over Canada in men’s hockey. They’d love nothing more than to defeat Canada in Montreal and push them to the brink of not even making it to the final. If USA wins in regulation, they are guaranteed a berth in the final, and then Canada would have to defeat Finland, and hope USA defeats Sweden. There is a lot on the line tomorrow, which makes it even better.
Make no mistake: The Canadians want to win just as badly. This is the first time McDavid, MacKinnon, Cale Makar and every other player not named Sidney Crosby and Drew Doughty will face the USA in a game of this magnitude.
Both teams desperately want to win, and this game won’t disappoint. Let’s Go Canada. Let’s F*&%#@& GO.
Feb 12, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Team Canada forward Sidney Crosby (87) prepares for a face-off against Team Sweden in the second period during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
TALE OF THE TAPE…
Here are some numbers to look at for both clubs. Sam Bennett will draw in for Travis Konecny. Bennett is going to start at centre on a line with Brad Marchand and Seth Jarvis. Will Jon Cooper play them against Jack Eichel and the Tkachuk brothers? I’m sure he will at times, and the chirping, yapping, hitting and tenacity will be great theatre.
Here’s a look at the 12 forwards for each team and their point production in the NHL this season. Team Canada is in red and they are ranked by PTS/GP.
FWDS | GP | G-A-PTS | PTS/GP |
MacKinnon | 57 | 21-66-87 | 1.53 |
McDavid | 49 | 22-49-71 | 1.45 |
Marner | 54 | 16-55-71 | 1.31 |
Eichel | 55 | 19-50-69 | 1.25 |
Connor | 56 | 30-39-69 | 1.23 |
Stone | 42 | 14-35-49 | 1.17 |
Point | 50 | 31-27-58 | 1.16 |
J. Hughes | 57 | 24-41-65 | 1.14 |
Matthews | 40 | 20-25-45 | 1.13 |
M. Tkachuk | 52 | 22-35-57 | 1.1 |
Reinhart | 57 | 31-31-62 | 1.09 |
Hagel | 55 | 22-36-58 | 1.07 |
FWDS | GP | G-A-PTS | PTS/GP |
Crosby | 55 | 17-41-58 | 1.05 |
Guentzel | 54 | 27-27-54 | 1.00 |
Jarvis | 49 | 22-23-45 | 0.92 |
Larkin | 55 | 23-27-50 | 0.91 |
Miller | 45 | 11-28–39 | 0.87 |
Boldy | 56 | 20-28-48 | 0.86 |
B. Tkachuk | 56 | 21-23-44 | 0.79 |
Cirelli | 53 | 20-22-42 | 0.79 |
Marchand | 57 | 20-24-44 | 0.77 |
Trocheck | 55 | 17-20-37 | 0.67 |
Bennett | 55 | 18-17-35 | 0.64 |
Nelson | 55 | 17-18-35 | 0.64 |
Canada has the more productive forward group top to bottom.
Here are the 12 defenders. Cale Makar didn’t skate today due to an illness, but Cooper said he expects him to play. Thomas Harley will join the team in Montreal just in case Makar can’t go. They are ranked by GF% at 5×5.
D-MEN | GP | G-A-PTS | PTS/GP | TOI/GP 5×5 | GF-GA (5×5 GF%) |
Makar | 57 | 22-41-63 | 1.11 | 1027 | 48-33 (59.3%) |
Werenski | 55 | 17-42-59 | 1.07 | 1147 | 54-39 (58%) |
Fox | 55 | 4-40-44 | 0.80 | 938 | 46-34 (57.5%) |
Toews | 53 | 6-21–27 | 0.51 | 1044 | 45-34 (56.9%) |
Faber | 52 | 6-16–22 | 0.42 | 994 | 38-29 (56.7%) |
Morrissey | 56 | 7-39-46 | 0.82 | 1090 | 46-36 (56.1%) |
McAvoy | 50 | 7-16–23 | 0.46 | 869 | 34-30 (53.1%) |
Slavin | 56 | 4-16–20 | 0.36 | 979 | 44-41 (51.8%) |
Parayko | 55 | 12-17–29 | 0.53 | 1109 | 49-47 (51%) |
Doughty | 6 | 0-0-1 | 0.17 | 130 | 7–7 (50%) |
Hanafin | 56 | 6-17–23 | 0.41 | 1038 | 51-55 (48.1%) |
Sanheim | 57 | 6-21–27 | 0.47 | 1124 | 44-57 (43.6%) |
Offensive production is pretty even as Makar and Zach Werenski are both having great seasons, but USA’s defensive group ranks better overall in GF%.
SPEED FACTOR…
USA is the youngest team in the tournament, and I’ve seen some suggest they are younger and faster than Canada. Let’s look at what the NHL edge numbers say.
Here are the rankings of the forwards, based on the most 20+ mph bursts. It also has their top speed as well as which percentile they rank amongst NHL forwards. (B-50th stands for below 50th percentile.)
FWDS | Top MPH (P%) | 20+ mph bursts |
MacKinnon | 23.83 (98th) | 408 |
McDavid | 23.97 (98th) | 312 |
Point | 23.13 (91st) | 261 |
Eichel | 23.5 (97th) | 235 |
Larkin | 22.81 (80th) | 173 |
Jarvis | 24.42 (99th) | 140 |
J. Hughes | 23.33 (95th) | 135 |
Connor | 22.64 (72nd) | 134 |
Nelson | 22.58 (70th) | 119 |
Hagel | 23.2 (94th) | 114 |
Miller | 22.37 (60th) | 110 |
Crosby | 22.54 (69th) | 108 |
FWDS | Top MPH (P%) | 20+ mph bursts |
Bennett | 21.81 (B-50th) | 90 |
B. Tkachuk | 22.37 (60th) | 89 |
Trocheck | 23.99 (98th) | 85 |
Cirelli | 23.15 (91st) | 84 |
Guentzel | 22.2 (B-50th) | 82 |
Boldy | 22.29 (56th) | 77 |
Marchand | 22.06 (B-50th) | 61 |
Marner | 23.56 (97th) | 59 |
Reinhart | 21.76 (B-50th) | 49 |
Matthews | 22.33 (58th) | 46 |
Stone | 21.38 (B-50th) | 19 |
M. Tkachuk | 22.12 (B-50th) | 6 |
No surprise MacKinnon and McDavid have the most 20+ mph bursts. I was surprised to see Seth Jarvis having the top speed this season at 24.42. He ranks sixth in bursts, so he’s quicker than some of us realize. Speed isn’t the only factor to success. Mitch Marner, Sam Reinhart, Auston Matthews, Mark Stone and Matthew Tkachuk have the fewest 20+mph bursts, but they all rank in the top 25 in the NHL in points per game. Marner is sixth, Stone (12th), Matthews (17th), Tkachuk (23rd) and Reinhart (25th). Speed will be a factor at times, but so is hockey IQ, shooting prowess and positioning.
Here’s how each team’s blueline fares.
D-MEN | Top MPH (P%) | 20+ mph bursts |
Makar | 23.63 (98th) | 139 |
Parayko | 22.50 (80th) | 137 |
Werenski | 23.08 (94th) | 121 |
Sanheim | 22.06 (66th) | 94 |
Hanafin | 22.65 (89th) | 66 |
Faber | 22.94 (93rd) | 59 |
Morrissey | 21.87 (55th) | 47 |
Slavin | 24.19 (99th) | 45 |
Toews | 22.61 (89th) | 44 |
Doughty | 22.10 (last year) | 35 |
McAvoy | 21.57 (51st) | 32 |
Fox | 21.33 (B-50th) | 8 |
Canada’s group is a bit quicker overall and has more 20+ mph bursts. Colton Parayko moves very well for a large human. Adam Fox and Charlie McAvoy defend with great positioning and smarts, more than blazing speed. Jaccob Slavin having the quickest top speed at 24.19 mph was quite surprising. He only has 45 bursts, so he doesn’t use it often, but clearly, he can fly if need be.
Feb 12, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; [Imagn Images direct customers only] Team Canada goalie Jordan Binnington (50) makes a save against Team Sweden forward William Nylander (88) in overtime during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
GOALTENDING…
Cooper didn’t want to say who would start tomorrow. Whether it is Adin Hill or Jordan Binnington, the United States has the better goalie in Connor Hellebuyck. But as we’ve seen many times before, in a one-game scenario, it is about which goalie plays best and often comes down to how many quality chances they face. Binnington played well in overtime v. Sweden, but I didn’t like the Adrian Kempe goal early in the third period. He, or Hill, need to avoid giving up an easy goal.
I’m sure Canada will ask MacKinnon how he and the Avalanche lit up Hellebuyck last spring, because outside of those five games, Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL the past two seasons by a large margin.
Over the past two regular seasons, Hellebuyck has started 103 games and has the best SV% among starters at .923 and the best GAA at 2.25. He’s been dominant, yet last April the Avalanche scored 24 goals in five games to give Hellebuyck a .870Sv% and 5.23 GAA. It’s crazy how five games are so much different than the 60 before and the 43 after. You know Canada will watch those games to see how Colorado exposed Hellebuyck and the Jets.
Meanwhile, Binnington has a .907Sv% and 2.86 GAA over the past two regular seasons in 93 starts. Hill has a .905Sv% and 2.68 GAA in 69 starts. They don’t match up to Hellebuyck overall. But I’m not sold they have to match him, as Canada doesn’t give up a lot. They just need to be consistent and avoid the soft goal.
I can’t wait for tomorrow. Enjoy the game. Go Canada.
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