If I were Stan Bowman, I wouldn’t go big-fish shopping this trade deadline. The market isn’t great, and the players you’ll get back for a first-round pick won’t be worth the value.
The obvious need for the Oilers is a defenceman to either play alongside Darnell Nurse or next to Ty Emberson, if you bump up Brett Kulak instead. Now, John Klingberg does play a huge role in the decision-making, but for the sake of this article, let’s pretend he becomes a good depth player for Edmonton.
Frank Seravalli released his latest trade targets list Friday and, despite having 10 defencemen on the list, few feel like good fits for the Oilers. Another factor is that numerous players play for teams pushing for a playoff spot, specifically ones that haven’t had much success. Montreal and Columbus have a couple of players on the list, but is the value they’d get back worth more than making a playoff push? A winning culture is incredibly undervalued by fans, and teams like Montreal and Columbus are clamouring for a change. With that, I don’t see David Savard and Ivan Provorov as realistic targets for the Oilers.
Savard wouldn’t be one even if the Habs were last by 40 points and selling him for a seventh-round pick. He’s older now, and his footwork isn’t good enough to play in Edmonton. Provorov is the complete opposite and someone the Oilers should be interested in. He’s 28 years old and a pending restricted free agent with a cap hit of $4.725 million, with 30 per cent of his cap retained by the Los Angeles Kings. That means only 20 per cent more can be retained, which gets the money down to $3 million. The Russian defenceman is worth spending assets for if you’re the Oilers, but do the Blue Jackets want to move on? Provorov is 11th on Frank’s list, previously eighth, and has expressed interest in staying in Columbus. However, he could be a wanted man if the Blue Jackets fall out of contention. If that happens, he becomes a realistic target, but for now, he’s not a likely candidate.
As much as he’d be a great fit in Edmonton, Bowen Byram isn’t becoming an Oiler either. Buffalo wants players who can help them win games now, and Edmonton can’t provide that. Additionally, the Oilers’ top prospect is former Sabre Matthew Savoie, so the likelihood of Buffalo wanting him back in a deal is close to zero.
Four New York Rangers defencemen made the trade list last time, but only three remain: Ryan Lindgren, Zac Jones and K’Andre Miller. Lindgren was labelled as “one of the frequent victims for New York’s issues in their own end,” which doesn’t spark much confidence. Jones is too young, with fewer than 100 NHL games played, despite playing at least 10 games in the last five seasons. Then you have Miller. While young and promising, what does his next contract look like? He’s a pending RFA who is already earning $3.872 million, so you know he’ll want more. Edmonton doesn’t need to add that to their pile.
Before we go any further, let’s eliminate Cody Ceci from this conversation. He entered Frank’s list today, but let’s show him the exit right away. The organization doesn’t need to go down that avenue again. Ty Emberson is better.
The final two players on Frank’s list worth discussing, before getting to the top target, are Marcus Pettersson and Rasmus Ristolainen. Pettersson is the top defenceman on the list at No. 5, which indicates the asking price is high. Furthermore, he’s the only pending unrestricted free agent on the Pittsburgh Penguins, so, again, they’ll want value back. What should scare the Oilers off is his limitations moving the puck. The Oilers don’t have that problem on the blue line right now, so why add it?
As for Ristolainen, aside from being big, what does he do well? He’s a 30-year-old defenceman who doesn’t bring offence, despite his $5.1-million cap hit, and isn’t reliable defensively, having been on the ice for 40 five-on-five goals (22nd worst in the NHL). He’d actually be one of the worst options on the list for Edmonton.
Now, is it crazy to say Brian Dumoulin is the best option? He’s a two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Pittsburgh Penguins, has close to 700 games played and likely won’t cost much. The Anaheim Ducks acquired him for a fourth-round pick from the Seattle Kraken over the summer, so the price is likely slightly higher than that, but certainly nothing expensive. His advanced analytics are strikingly similar to Brett Kulak’s when the Oilers acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline. Kulak brought better offence numbers to the table with 2.30 goals per 60 minutes played compared to Dumoulin’s 1.85. Additionally, he had a slightly better GF% (43.21 to 43.10) and had three goals in 56 games, while Dumoulin has zero. However, defensively, they’re close, if not slightly more in favour of the Ducks defenceman.
It should be noted that Kulak played 56 games for the Canadiens before getting moved, while Dumoulin is currently at 48. Despite that, Dumoulin has been on the ice for only 33 goals (Kulak 46) and is averaging 2.44 goals against per 60 minutes, while Kulak was at 3.02.
Could Dumoulin be your Kulak add? Kulak cost the Oilers a second-round pick (Lane Hutson), a fourth-round pick (Rasmus Bergqvist) and William Lagesson. Edmonton has those assets to play with still, with this year’s Lagesson potentially being an expiring Ronnie Attard or Alec Regula.
With so much uncertainty in the market and the lack of top-quality talent, nibbling away at the edges might be the move for Edmonton.
