The Oilers are down 2-0 in their best-of-four series to the Winnipeg Jets. They were the better team in Game 1 but Connor Hellebuyck stood tall and the Jets were the ones who got the bounces to go their way. They got completely shut down in Game 2 and lost 1-0 in overtime despite an excellent outing from Mike Smith.

Now we’re off to Winnipeg with an uphill battle on the way. Edmonton needs to win four and they can only lose one.

Again, this is far from ideal and this obviously isn’t the outcome anybody was expecting after two games at home. But the series isn’t over yet and the Oilers can certainly still come back and win this thing. Let’s go over some positives…

Mike Smith has been excellent. Last summer, Dave Tippett opted to go with the cagey veteran in Game 1 against the Blackhawks and Smith got shelled, allowing five goals on 23 shots. Since then, Smith has been a rock for the Oilers. He was great during the regular season and he’s been great in both playoff games. The Jets have thrown 56 shots at Smith and only three of them have gone in. Game 2’s performance on Friday night was a bonafide Dwayne-Roloson-in-2006-level showing as Smith made some huge saves early on when the team was flat. If the Oilers can get their offence going, Smith looks like a goalie ready to take them on a run.
Connor McDavid will probably break out. The Jets have done an impressive job shutting down Connor McDavid so far, there’s no doubt about that. McDavid doesn’t have a single point through the first two games of the series. Only once during the regular season was he shut down in consecutive games like this. That came in March when the Oilers were swept by the Maple Leafs as Toronto managed to hold McDavid without a point for an entire three-game set. Otherwise, there was no instance of McDavid getting held pointless in back-to-back games this season. McDavid was better in Game 2 than he was in Game 1, which is a good sign that he could finally break through in Game 3. After firing just two shots and six attempts on Wednesday, he had five and 10 respectively on Friday. Again, the Jets have done a good job standing tall at the blueline and at keeping McDavid to the outside, but, eventually, he’s going to break through.
Darnell Nurse and Jujhar Khaira. These are a couple of players who have stood out to me in a positive way thus far. Nurse has continued to look like a legitimate No. 1 defenceman against Winnipeg. He’s played a whopping 53:51 at even-strength over the first two games and hasn’t been on the ice for a goal against. Winnipeg also only has nine high-danger chances with Nurse on the ice. The other one is Jujhair Khaira, who has been very strong in the third centre role. Khaira owns Edmonton’s second-best Expected Goals For Percentage through two games largely because the Jets have generated zero offence with him on the ice. I don’t expect Khaira to chip in offensively but he’s been doing great work at shutting things down in a defensive role.
A 2-0 hole isn’t insurmountable. Winnipeg is clearly in the diver’s seat after winning the first two games of the series in Edmonton but they haven’t wrapped this series up yet. We know from experience a 2-0 series lead can be flipped on its head. Back in 2006, the Oilers dropped their first two games of their second-round series to the Sharks and came back and won in six. In 2017, the Oilers won two games on the road in Anaheim and the Ducks came back and won in seven. The series is far from over.
The Oilers are a good road team. One of the strange abnormalities of the 2021 season for the Oilers was their home and away splits. The Oilers were a much better team way from Rogers Place this season, going 19-7-2 on the road. They also went 4-1 in five games in Winnipeg this season. If times were normal, I would be much more worried about going back to Winnipeg down 2-0. They would have a wild stadium packed with fans making a lot of noise and it would be a difficult environment to play in as a visitor. But times aren’t normal. Winnipeg’s barn is going to be empty and there isn’t the same home-ice advantage without fans. Couple that with Edmonton’s stellar road play and there isn’t as big of a worry about having to take two or three games in Winnipeg.

What say you, Nation? What’s your panic level at right now? Do you believe the Oilers can come back and win this series?

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